TalcottWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Kevin how many more inches will I get than you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 light snow falling here, 37 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 The ECMWF camp leaves more room for the first s/w to go to town for amplification and closing off and therefore goes vertically stacked quicker. During the maturing process, the advection processes are at their strongest along with adiabatic processes so this is when max snowfall is likely (standard met). The GFS camp has less room for the first s/w, more open and less amplified and so the vertical stacking process happens much latter. The maturing / enhanced advection point moves northeast. The answer likely is in a compromise for now similar to what Adam said in the main forum. Don't underestimate the deformation / positive frontogenesis during the mature stage. I think it will be sufficient to produce a "paste bomb" but the obvious question is where. I don't wish to get into the details of post-Sandy relief and the Nor'easter but this will significantly halt efforts and likely produce more power outages. Since the situation is rare, I couldn't possibly guess the effects other than anything that was previously compromised with Sandy will likely take its toll (weakened trees, dunes etc.) with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Kevin how many more inches will I get than you? I doubt you see any. NWS has all rain for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I doubt you see any. NWS has all rain for you Damn, it looks like the most consistent model has several inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 The ECMWF camp leaves more room for the first s/w to go to town for amplification and closing off and therefore goes vertically stacked quicker. During the maturing process, the advection processes are at their strongest along with adiabatic processes so this is when max snowfall is likely (standard met). The GFS camp has less room for the first s/w, more open and less amplified and so the vertical stacking process happens much latter. The maturing / enhanced advection point moves northeast. The answer likely is in a compromise for now similar to what Adam said in the main forum. Don't underestimate the deformation / positive frontogenesis during the mature stage. I think it will be sufficient to produce a "paste bomb" but the obvious question is where. I don't wish to get into the details of post-Sandy relief and the Nor'easter but this will significantly halt efforts and likely produce more power outages. Since the situation is rare, I couldn't possibly guess the effects other than anything that was previously compromised with Sandy will likely take its toll (weakened trees, dunes etc.) with this storm. What general area do you like for accumulating snows from this? Maybe like an outline from the mid atl on north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 The ECMWF camp leaves more room for the first s/w to go to town for amplification and closing off and therefore goes vertically stacked quicker. During the maturing process, the advection processes are at their strongest along with adiabatic processes so this is when max snowfall is likely (standard met). The GFS camp has less room for the first s/w, more open and less amplified and so the vertical stacking process happens much latter. The maturing / enhanced advection point moves northeast. The answer likely is in a compromise for now similar to what Adam said in the main forum. Don't underestimate the deformation / positive frontogenesis during the mature stage. I think it will be sufficient to produce a "paste bomb" but the obvious question is where. I don't wish to get into the details of post-Sandy relief and the Nor'easter but this will significantly halt efforts and likely produce more power outages. Since the situation is rare, I couldn't possibly guess the effects other than anything that was previously compromised with Sandy will likely take its toll (weakened trees, dunes etc.) with this storm. Yeah the key imo is to see just where that process happens. I feel like no matter where...whether it is the DC suburbs or ALB...whoever is under that will probably get a fence flattener. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 What general area do you like for accumulating snows from this? Maybe like an outline from the mid atl on north? The best chance for accumulating snow at this point would be N-C, W MD into adjacent N VA, E PA, NW NJ, E NY, NW CT, W MA/S VT/ SW NH zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Yeah the key imo is to see just where that process happens. I feel like no matter where...whether it is the DC suburbs or ALB...whoever is under that will probably get a fence flattener. Yes, I agree. Whether you want to call it "making its own cold air" or "dynamical cooling" etc. the point of maximum processes in advection and lift as cyclone matures will be the jackpot zone in the deformation band. I think for now the best route is a compromise of the two scenarios. I'd watch the N-C MD hills into PA, NW NJ, SE / E NY and western MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Yes, I agree. Whether you want to call it "making its own cold air" or "dynamical cooling" etc. the point of maximum processes in advection and lift as cyclone matures will be the jackpot zone in the deformation band. I think for now the best route is a compromise of the two scenarios. I'd watch the N-C MD hills into PA, NW NJ, SE / E NY and western MA. Yep, that's the whole forecast. I agree with where you've got heaviest axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 My cousin in Ridgefield finally got his back on Saturday night. Glad I missed all the fun up here. Hurricanes are one wx event that I don't mind following vicariously. No protection from coastal flooding in most areas, was up in a few neighborhoods here in town still thousands of people without power, you cant turn your head without seeing huge trees down. Forget about whats going on to the south, people are ready to lose it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Yep, that's the whole forecast. I agree with where you've got heaviest axis. wait...what about NE CT?! impossible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 SREFs have an unusual signal for freezing rain with a low so far east. It's not the only model doing that. It looks weird, but it is basically saying that this low floods the area aloft with warmer air. If anything, I buy more of an IP signal instead of ZR, but the whole look of it is weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 SREFs have an unusual signal for freezing rain with a low so far east. It's not the only model doing that. It looks weird, but it is basically saying that this low floods the area aloft with warmer air. If anything, I buy more of an IP signal instead of ZR, but the whole look of it is weird. Between the departing high's in-situ effects and the ageostrophic component to the exploding deform, I'm wondering if the low level cold air advection is going to continue to trend stronger as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 In for 1st snowfall of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I remember that VD '07 storm where people southeast of here had an ice pellet blizzard a half a foot deep. SREFs have an unusual signal for freezing rain with a low so far east. It's not the only model doing that. It looks weird, but it is basically saying that this low floods the area aloft with warmer air. If anything, I buy more of an IP signal instead of ZR, but the whole look of it is weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Between the departing high's in-situ effects and the ageostrophic component to the exploding deform, I'm wondering if the low level cold air advection is going to continue to trend stronger as we get closer. Even on the GFS, the surface temps were darn cold right into interior SE MA. Granted the GFS is east, but it may have the right idea with a very sharp coastal front. Check out those temp gradients! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I remember that VD '07 storm where people southeast of here had an ice pellet blizzard a half a foot deep. I had like 8" of granular, snow/sleet mixture....lol. Most sleet I have ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Even on the GFS, the surface temps were darn cold right into interior SE MA. Granted the GFS is east, but it may have the right idea with a very sharp coastal front. Check out those temp gradients! Where is it? 128ish.....? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Where is it? 128ish.....? Yeah close by, or even a little SE of that. It will depend on how close this tucks in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 SREFs have an unusual signal for freezing rain with a low so far east. It's not the only model doing that. It looks weird, but it is basically saying that this low floods the area aloft with warmer air. If anything, I buy more of an IP signal instead of ZR, but the whole look of it is weird. Yeah, Wed night here GYX has IP in our forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Yeah close by, or even a little SE of that. It will depend on how close this tucks in. Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Got a report from a FB friend of snow in Halifax! light snow falling here, 37 degrees. LOL coastal/E.MA seeing their first flakes of the year before GC and the Berks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 NAM is still way east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Yeah, Wed night here GYX has IP in our forecast Yea SREF's/NAM/GFS are bring alot of warm air in aloft in NNE. Probably a little bit of snow over to ip/zr to RA Thursday morning. Kind of blah, but better than nothing for 11/7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 This thing will probably have a nice tropo fold to explode when it gets near the latitude of HSE. You can see it on the models, it there is a massive tongue of instability the rides into the comma head on the west side. It's at this point that winds just north and northwest of the low gust to hurricane force over the open waters. The question is when and where does this take place. When the low undergoes bombogenesis...you'll probably have a 6-10hr period in the comma head or deformation region where things could really get interesting. New NAM now takes it towards ACK...almost due north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Pretty big shift west on the nam. Low just east of RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Pretty big shift west on the nam. Low just east of RI It was pretty far east at first, but curled right into Newport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 This thing will probably have a nice tropo fold to explode when it gets near the latitude of HSE. You can see it on the models, it there is a massive tongue of instability the rides into the comma head on the west side. It's at this point that winds just north and northwest of the low gust to hurricane force over the open waters. The question is when and where does this take place. When the low undergoes bombogenesis...you'll probably have a 6-10hr period in the comma head or deformation region where things could really get interesting. New NAM now takes it towards ACK...almost due north. Pretty big shift west on the nam. Low just east of RI It occludes over RI lol. Probably 2-4" to crap in NNE verbatim. Crazy evolution. Lots of WAA from the east lol...maybe a period of ZR in the NW hills of CT/Berks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 It was pretty far east at first, but curled right into Newport. Logan11 is doing a naked handstand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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