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Son of Sandy- Nov 6,7,8 2012


HoarfrostHubb

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Well right now, anything is on the table. I really want to see the 12z runs before we get too worked up. I don't like how it becomes a banded occluded mess at our latitude.

100% agree on both points. We're not talking about a heckuv a lot of latitudinal distance to impact opportunities for snow in SNE. As we get through 12z, hopefully things will adjust weeniesh. However, the consistency of the occulsion so far south is worrisome (for this thread).

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100% agree on both points. We're not talking about a heckuv a lot of latitudinal distance to impact opportunities for snow in SNE. As we get through 12z, hopefully things will adjust weeniesh. However, the consistency of the occulsion so far south is worrisome (for this thread).

Banded precip, your qpf anxiety will be in full effect. A ground whitening paste for you, cold drizzle for me with occasional cat paws when heavier precip actually makes it down here from the shadow of the hills.

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REGARDING THE MID TO LATE WEEK COASTAL STORM...A SURGE OF 3 TO 5 FT

IS POSSIBLE. HIGHEST TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS THE

WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND DUE TO PILING OF WATER IN NORTHEAST FETCH.

SOUTH SHORE BAYS WILL LIKELY SEE HIGH ANOMALIES AS WELL...WITH NY

HARBOR OBSERVING SLIGHTLY LOWER ANOMALIES.

MAINLY LOOKING AT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE

CYCLES. FEEL WIDESPREAD MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WILL

OCCUR WITH THIS STORM.

SEAS BUILD THROUGH

THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND PEAK AT HEIGHTS OF AT LEAST 15-20 FEET

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

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LOL sun angle is not all that relevant this time of year, but in a marginal atmosphere it wouldn't hurt to have it at night. The marine argument is more relevant aloft because winds aloft are pumping in mild air who's source region is well south of ACK. There will be a strong ageostrophic component to the wind I think with winds more nrly at the surface..especially N&W of BOS. It will be quite chilly at the surface..probably stay in the U30s in areas just inland. That coastal front will probably provide the focus for a QPF max near BOS. East of the front, winds will howl.

Wood

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Tandy Andy taught me somethings over the years, one of them being 250 wind anomalies and stalling tendency .A -2 250 anomaly means very slow moving or stalling. Below are the 06 GEFS U wind anomalies at 850 level, 925 level, 250 level and a precip type%, congrats Dendrite and Snow NH. Not a run of the mill nor'easter as some seem to indicate from posts, radio and TV reports.-5 anomalies are historical and usually only occur 2-3 times per year.

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Still a bit too far out of their wheelhouse, but the SREF probs has about 20% for 1" at ORH and 30-35" for the Berks into SW NH/S VT. Not bad for this time range and a marginal airmass. If we can hold the Euro type solution again at 12z (a slightly less amped version would prob be even better), then I think i we can really increase confidence in at least some accumulating snow for the interior (even if its like 1-3")...esp for N ORH county/SW NH/Berks...even if Kevin hates to hear that. But even there they would probably get at least something.

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Still a bit too far out of their wheelhouse, but the SREF probs has about 20% for 1" at ORH and 30-35" for the Berks into SW NH/S VT. Not bad for this time range and a marginal airmass. If we can hold the Euro type solution again at 12z (a slightly less amped version would prob be even better), then I think i we can really increase confidence in at least some accumulating snow for the interior (even if its like 1-3")...esp for N ORH county/SW NH/Berks...even if Kevin hates to hear that. But even there they would probably get at least something.

I would feel better if it weren't a banded mess like the euro has. I think it could snow, but I just don't like the banded nature. Maybe it will tick east and not be so wrapped up on the 12z run.

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I would feel better if it weren't a banded mess like the euro has. I think it could snow, but I just don't like the banded nature. Maybe it will tick east and not be so wrapped up on the 12z run.

Yeah well that's why I think the lower elevations won't get much unless we can see it organize a bit later. Euro is the type of situation where Ray is getting catpaws, weatherMA (if he were home) gets a coating of slush, Winter Hill gets 2" and weenie ridge gets 4-5"

But obviously we still have a lot to work out. Euro ensembles were a bit less amped than the OP and of course we have the weird GFS/NAM being way east.

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Euro would be bad for LI sound.

No protection from coastal flooding in most areas, was up in a few neighborhoods here in town still thousands of people without power, you cant turn your head without seeing huge trees down. Forget about whats going on to the south, people are ready to lose it.

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No protection from coastal flooding in most areas, was up in a few neighborhoods here in town still thousands of people without power, you cant turn your head without seeing huge trees down. Forget about whats going on to the south, people are ready to lose it.

Astro low is going to really help, max surge I saw was BDR at 4.7 feet .

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Astro low is going to really help, max surge I saw was BDR at 4.7 feet .

That will flood the beach area, never mind that, people without power still, the tree damage still being cleaned up. The gas situation down in western ffld county is ridiculous as thousands of NY's are coming up to fill up people are losing there patience and the beach here is just now opened up to homeowners only with tons and tons of sand to move and structures to clean up.

Its sucks down here, period.

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