Damage In Tolland Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 SSSHHH,,don't tell Ryan.. My non weenie maps from the euro give a few inches to the Berks. 1-2" for Kev and 2" to Will. LOL, see above post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Yeah Jerry, looks like cold rain for us. Using IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 5, 2012 Author Share Posted November 5, 2012 Jerry, a lot of schools here are closed Tuesday. Still gotta work but kids will be home Nice to see snow at Wachusett today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 SSSHHH,,don't tell Ryan.. Well right now, anything is on the table. I really want to see the 12z runs before we get too worked up. I don't like how it becomes a banded occluded mess at our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Well right now, anything is on the table. I really want to see the 12z runs before we get too worked up. I don't like how it becomes a banded occluded mess at our latitude. I am fully expecting a sloppy inch or two in all of the hills in SNE..Even NW Ri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Schools closed here for election day too...heck, we've been closed since Last monday....unreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Well right now, anything is on the table. I really want to see the 12z runs before we get too worked up. I don't like how it becomes a banded occluded mess at our latitude. 100% agree on both points. We're not talking about a heckuv a lot of latitudinal distance to impact opportunities for snow in SNE. As we get through 12z, hopefully things will adjust weeniesh. However, the consistency of the occulsion so far south is worrisome (for this thread). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 100% agree on both points. We're not talking about a heckuv a lot of latitudinal distance to impact opportunities for snow in SNE. As we get through 12z, hopefully things will adjust weeniesh. However, the consistency of the occulsion so far south is worrisome (for this thread). Banded precip, your qpf anxiety will be in full effect. A ground whitening paste for you, cold drizzle for me with occasional cat paws when heavier precip actually makes it down here from the shadow of the hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 The GFS actually would be a decent snow event for the interior, but it has a dryslot away from eastern areas, and then another QPF max in the deformation zone near Albany, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I am fully expecting a sloppy inch or two in all of the hills in SNE..Even NW Ri I think you'll see at least a couple hours of wet snow during the early evening hours before the WAA overtakes the whole area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 06z GFS is really interesting. It's got a mega coastal front.. That would be a good pasting for the interior...even closer to Kevin...but it has a funny dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 REGARDING THE MID TO LATE WEEK COASTAL STORM...A SURGE OF 3 TO 5 FT IS POSSIBLE. HIGHEST TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND DUE TO PILING OF WATER IN NORTHEAST FETCH. SOUTH SHORE BAYS WILL LIKELY SEE HIGH ANOMALIES AS WELL...WITH NY HARBOR OBSERVING SLIGHTLY LOWER ANOMALIES. MAINLY LOOKING AT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLES. FEEL WIDESPREAD MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WILL OCCUR WITH THIS STORM. SEAS BUILD THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND PEAK AT HEIGHTS OF AT LEAST 15-20 FEET WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 SOME OR ALL OF THIS WIND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE COULD BE BROUGHT TO THE SURFACE IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WIND GUSTS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD BE 40-50 MPH...BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR 60-80 MPH IF THOSE STRONGER WINDS MIX DOWN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Good thing tides are astronomically low this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 LOL sun angle is not all that relevant this time of year, but in a marginal atmosphere it wouldn't hurt to have it at night. The marine argument is more relevant aloft because winds aloft are pumping in mild air who's source region is well south of ACK. There will be a strong ageostrophic component to the wind I think with winds more nrly at the surface..especially N&W of BOS. It will be quite chilly at the surface..probably stay in the U30s in areas just inland. That coastal front will probably provide the focus for a QPF max near BOS. East of the front, winds will howl. Wood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I can't believe how far east some of the guidance is right now compared to the Euro. Gotta think those solutions will come back west....GEFS and EC ensembles are pretty decently west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Tandy Andy taught me somethings over the years, one of them being 250 wind anomalies and stalling tendency .A -2 250 anomaly means very slow moving or stalling. Below are the 06 GEFS U wind anomalies at 850 level, 925 level, 250 level and a precip type%, congrats Dendrite and Snow NH. Not a run of the mill nor'easter as some seem to indicate from posts, radio and TV reports.-5 anomalies are historical and usually only occur 2-3 times per year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Still a bit too far out of their wheelhouse, but the SREF probs has about 20% for 1" at ORH and 30-35" for the Berks into SW NH/S VT. Not bad for this time range and a marginal airmass. If we can hold the Euro type solution again at 12z (a slightly less amped version would prob be even better), then I think i we can really increase confidence in at least some accumulating snow for the interior (even if its like 1-3")...esp for N ORH county/SW NH/Berks...even if Kevin hates to hear that. But even there they would probably get at least something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Still a bit too far out of their wheelhouse, but the SREF probs has about 20% for 1" at ORH and 30-35" for the Berks into SW NH/S VT. Not bad for this time range and a marginal airmass. If we can hold the Euro type solution again at 12z (a slightly less amped version would prob be even better), then I think i we can really increase confidence in at least some accumulating snow for the interior (even if its like 1-3")...esp for N ORH county/SW NH/Berks...even if Kevin hates to hear that. But even there they would probably get at least something. I would feel better if it weren't a banded mess like the euro has. I think it could snow, but I just don't like the banded nature. Maybe it will tick east and not be so wrapped up on the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Just an absolutely awful situation, this could be the breaking point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Euro would be bad for LI sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I would feel better if it weren't a banded mess like the euro has. I think it could snow, but I just don't like the banded nature. Maybe it will tick east and not be so wrapped up on the 12z run. Yeah well that's why I think the lower elevations won't get much unless we can see it organize a bit later. Euro is the type of situation where Ray is getting catpaws, weatherMA (if he were home) gets a coating of slush, Winter Hill gets 2" and weenie ridge gets 4-5" But obviously we still have a lot to work out. Euro ensembles were a bit less amped than the OP and of course we have the weird GFS/NAM being way east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Euro would be bad for LI sound. No protection from coastal flooding in most areas, was up in a few neighborhoods here in town still thousands of people without power, you cant turn your head without seeing huge trees down. Forget about whats going on to the south, people are ready to lose it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Snow and damaging wind, my 2 favorite things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Snow and damaging wind, my 2 favorite things Stay classy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Moyer had 2-4 inches of snow for hills from AVP to ORH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Got a report from a FB friend of snow in Halifax! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Got a report from a FB friend of snow in Halifax! Yeah we talked about it in the other thread. Heard about it from a friend in Marshfield too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 No protection from coastal flooding in most areas, was up in a few neighborhoods here in town still thousands of people without power, you cant turn your head without seeing huge trees down. Forget about whats going on to the south, people are ready to lose it. Astro low is going to really help, max surge I saw was BDR at 4.7 feet . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Astro low is going to really help, max surge I saw was BDR at 4.7 feet . That will flood the beach area, never mind that, people without power still, the tree damage still being cleaned up. The gas situation down in western ffld county is ridiculous as thousands of NY's are coming up to fill up people are losing there patience and the beach here is just now opened up to homeowners only with tons and tons of sand to move and structures to clean up. Its sucks down here, period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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