dryslot Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I will say that it is weird to see such warm temps aloft with a track that far east, and such cool temps at the surface. Many models show this. Cold being underplayed by the models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 NAM should have the "coldest" setup with that track and where the storm strengthens. NAM may be a 250mb isothermal paste job in a narrow area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Cold being underplayed by the models? Well not at the surface. It warms aloft, but that is a bombing low in a good spot. I can't help but think a narrow area could get snow IF the NAM verified. Big if. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 NAM shows so many ridiculous solutions beyond 48h. Hard to take it seriously. The way it evolves is sort of what we would want to see though for snow in the interior...so if globals start to show something similar, then we could think about it more seriously. The lack of mid-level cold is really a hinderance though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 NAM shows so many ridiculous solutions beyond 48h. Hard to take it seriously. The way it evolves is sort of what we would want to see though for snow in the interior...so if globals start to show something similar, then we could think about it more seriously. The lack of mid-level cold is really a hinderance though. Agreed. The NAM is the synoptic setup we want. The NAM is virtually all sleet at BDL looking at the BUFKIT soundings. The soundings are pretty hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 0Z Gfs is a little east of 18z @hr66, Colder aloft as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Congrats Philly on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 00z GFS at 72: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 GFS is an occluding mess by the time it gets to SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Sounds like we just need it to bomb later yeah? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 GFS is an occluding mess by the time it gets to SNE. Yes... a hideous storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 GFS is an occluding mess by the time it gets to SNE. It was at least 8mb weaker then 18z as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 It seems whoever is W-SW of the low while it bombs & before it occludes gets a chance of snow...NAM=SNE, GFS=Philly? lol EURO= DC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 It was at least 8mb weaker then 18z as well Yeah, it will be interesting to see if the King flinches. It showed a decent event for NNE did it not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Yeah, it will be interesting to see if the King flinches. It showed a decent event for NNE did it not? Yeah, The higher elevations looked like they would see some winter precip before a changeover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Still warm seclusion signal on the GFS .. interesting to see the Ukie east now as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Euro is a lot colder now...definitely some snow in the interior..it even gets ORH county/SW NH/Berks below freezing on the sfc temps. Looks more interesting too for DC and parts of the M.A. I'd still like to see a bit better precip rates...but the thermal profiles look more favorable now for a lot of areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Good to hear on the euro. Looks like a very good chance of at least starting as snow up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Good to hear on the euro. Looks like a very good chance of at least starting as snow up here. Euro is all snow for NNE pretty much except for Maine and eastern NH where it flips to wintry mix...Thursday gets to 33-38 for many but precip shuts off before 18z id think. Maybe 2-4". It's not very dynamic by the time it reaches New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Def probably a shot at advisory snow in the elevated interior in MA/SW NH/NW CT on the Euro. The precip rates aren't great so it would probably be hard to get to the lower elevations to snow...but we'll have to watch it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Well it's still not optimum with it deepening so far south, but the thermal profile is great. It's all snow here from what I can see, but qpf isn't so great given that evolution. Fantasy snow maps give me 4.5". DC gets 9 inches...if that's believable. LOL Def probably a shot at advisory snow in the elevated interior in MA/SW NH/NW CT on the Euro. The precip rates aren't great so it would probably be hard to get to the lower elevations to snow...but we'll have to watch it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 DC would get more snow than all of NE..lol. That's a real comma head crusher there. Looks better though for wrn MA and ORH hills intop SW NH in the beginning, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Models are still in disagreement, so we may see some sort of a compromise. I still would watch out from Berks, ORH hills and SW NH. Not NE CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Would SE PA be in the snow action in the EURO? Amazing change in 00z suite in terms of temps. I think theyre dropping more energy into the backside shortwave. Sorry to ask a IMBY post but the Philly thread is dead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 My non weenie maps from the euro give a few inches to the Berks. 1-2" for Kev and 2" to Will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Well--a few days out I suppose we have some room for elements to vary from the current model depictions which may delay the phasing/occlusion. But, of course, that's just a weenie statement. Looks like Jay may have taken his SNE weather with him to MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Models are still in disagreement, so we may see some sort of a compromise. I still would watch out from Berks, ORH hills and SW NH. Not NE CT. Had to get in there huh? I'll see some sort of snow from this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Well--a few days out I suppose we have some room for elements to vary from the current model depictions which may delay the phasing/occlusion. But, of course, that's just a weenie statement. Looks like Jay may have taken his SNE weather with him to MD. The DC area, especially the NW hills could get hit pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Had to get in there huh? I'll see some sort of snow from this LOL, see above post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 OT but this week leading to the election wx wise reminds me of 1960. Very similar. In those days, school was closed on presidential election years. I remember playing field goal (kicking over the highest wire between 2 telephone poles) with this kid Andy (now mid 60s...lol). We had a system shortly after Election Day that I was weeneeing for snow but we got a cold rain, The winter following was simply epic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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