ineedsnow Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 ill be in albany all week so im hoping they do better Sweet, we're in the 'winter' bubble. Leaning 2-4" at 2K, T-2" on the east slope, rain for you and I though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 We know powderfreak is getting close to a Fukushima-esque meltdown when he starts wishing for SNE to get a marginal snow bomb in November so they can make marginal 27F man-made snow on Mansfield. LOL Fukushima. He's gonna make Chernobyl look like a melted wax candle if November is mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 We know powderfreak is getting close to a Fukushima-esque meltdown when he starts wishing for SNE to get a marginal snow bomb in November so they can make marginal 27F man-made snow on Mansfield. LOL... for once, just once, I'd love to have the mountain open on schedule. I want to be riding a lift 13 days from now. For like the last 6 years, ski areas in New England have been struggling to open on their scheduled dates which have historically not been as hard to do as it has lately. I don't want to bust out the global warming stuff, but Libations may be onto something with the ever-lasting torch idea. Either that or we are just in a November rut. It doesn't even seem to snow in November anymore, lol. Last year we got lucky with that marginal 32F 9" of blue snow on Thanksgiving, which promptly melted like 2 days later all the way to 4,000ft... not sure what it is. It seems to snow more in October than November for whatever reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 LOL... for once, just once, I'd love to have the mountain open on schedule. I want to be riding a lift 13 days from now. For like the last 6 years, ski areas in New England have been struggling to open on their scheduled dates which have historically not been as hard to do as it has lately. I don't want to bust out the global warming stuff, but Libations may be onto something with the ever-lasting torch idea. Either that or we are just in a November rut. It doesn't even seem to snow in November anymore, lol. Last year we got lucky with that marginal 32F 9" of blue snow on Thanksgiving, which promptly melted like 2 days later all the way to 4,000ft... not sure what it is. It seems to snow more in October than November for whatever reason. Well a lot of it is due to the pattern. They certainly haven't been complaining out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 LOL sun angle is not all that relevant this time of year, but in a marginal atmosphere it wouldn't hurt to have it at night. The marine argument is more relevant aloft because winds aloft are pumping in mild air who's source region is well south of ACK. There will be a strong ageostrophic component to the wind I think with winds more nrly at the surface..especially N&W of BOS. It will be quite chilly at the surface..probably stay in the U30s in areas just inland. That coastal front will probably provide the focus for a QPF max near BOS. East of the front, winds will howl. No snowack and 50? or so days until the winter sol. Take Dec 21 and add 50, and mid-Feb sun angle wouldn't be all that relevant? Also ground/soil is quite warm and moist. I could be wrong, but things tend to go more wrong than right for the coastal plain in early November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 No snowack and 50? or so days until the winter sol. Take Dec 21 and add 50, and mid-Feb sun angle wouldn't be all that relevant? Also ground/soil is quite warm and moist. I could be wrong, but things tend to go more wrong than right for the coastal plain in early November. Yeah. Average high is 56! Any snow would be a treat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 No snowack and 50? or so days until the winter sol. Take Dec 21 and add 50, and mid-Feb sun angle wouldn't be all that relevant? Also ground/soil is quite warm and moist. I could be wrong, but things tend to go more wrong than right for the coastal plain in early November. Well I'm only talking about the interior. No snow for this area. The sun angle argument is not really relevant IMO. We heard all about the warm ground and sun argument on 10/29/11 and we know what happened. The ground will cool off considerably over the next 3 days with the far interior barely getting to 40F for a high. But the question is about temps aloft. If temps aloft are cold enough and you have lift, I don't care if it was 90 the day before. It will snow and accumulate. Our problem is the temps aloft being borderline. I'm not sure if nighttime will help all that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Well a lot of it is due to the pattern. They certainly haven't been complaining out west. Yeah I figure its more of just a rut that the past several Novembers have been warm... probably similar to Blizz's belief that March is no longer a snow month, I'm starting to think November isn't as much of a winter month as I used to think it was. I'm sure we'll snap out of it at some point, but the run of warm, snowless Novembers in New England is getting decently long. Certainly haven't seen a November in a while where a lot of ski areas open early (or even on time) due to great early season cold/snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Yeah I figure its more of just a rut that the past several Novembers have been warm... probably similar to Blizz's belief that March is no longer a snow month, I'm starting to think November isn't as much of a winter month as I used to think it was. I'm sure we'll snap out of it at some point, but the run of warm, snowless Novembers in New England is getting decently long. Certainly haven't seen a November in a while where a lot of ski areas open early (or even on time) due to great early season cold/snow. The long range didn't look horrible for you. Would think you'll be able to make snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Well I'm only talking about the interior. No snow for this area. The sun angle argument is not really relevant IMO. We heard all about the warm ground and sun argument on 10/29/11 and we know what happened. The ground will cool off considerably over the next 3 days with the far interior barely getting to 40F for a high. But the question is about temps aloft. If temps aloft are cold enough and you have lift, I don't care if it was 90 the day before. It will snow and accumulate. Our problem is the temps aloft being borderline. I'm not sure if nighttime will help all that much. 10/29/11 was squarely a nighttime deal up here, jmo everything came into alignment to totally f*** us. I know things such as that are minor grievances and are "not really releveant". Not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 10/29/11 was squarely a nighttime deal up here, jmo everything came into alignment to totally f*** us. Much of SW CT had most of their accumulation during the day. It's all about the snow rates baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 10/29/11 started here in early afternoon and it started accumulating off the bat. We saw those pics too from CT when it started even earlier and it stuck. Nov 7 sun angle is equivalent to Feb 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 NAM is a 968 black hole along and just east of the 70th parallel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 NAM is a late phase but a real bomb. Still too warm outside the Greens/Northern Whites though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 nam looks like a N ORH paste bomb http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znamsnow_NE084.gif all the way to 128. lofl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Much of SW CT had most of their accumulation during the day. It's all about the snow rates baby. Jaffrey 31.4" and Plainfield MA 30.8. Unreal. we got destroyed, something like 21-22" here at a low <500' elevation, too. it was destructive and didn't have power for a week, I apologize if SW CT had 15-35" over a wide area...didn't hear about it and am ignorant. :> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 NAM is a late phase but a real bomb. Still too warm outside the Greens/Northern Whites though. It actually shows a total paste bomb for ORH county before flipping them to ZR, lol. Wait until the clown maps come out in a few minutes, they will look funny. This panel shows it...under that band, a little layer of -2C 850s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 LOL, a 10 mile wide pasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Hopefully the models hone in on timing and intensity that spares NJ/NY, and destroys SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 It actually shows a total paste bomb for ORH county before flipping them to ZR, lol. Wait until the clown maps come out in a few minutes, they will look funny. This panel shows it...under that band, a little layer of -2C 850s Nice... the lower res version I was looking at didn't show that little weenie dynamic cooling. Looks like some convective feedback though over E SNE with a blow up in precip right toward the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 lolol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Look at the sfc temps on the 84h panel, lol. ZR for interior? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I cannot recall a ZR event with strong NW winds. I'm sure that will verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I cannot recall a ZR event with strong NW winds. I'm sure that will verify. ZR with a 970 low east of 70W? LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 ZR with a 970 low east of 70W? LOL. I love the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Fast forward about a month and this storm track would be great for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 The Nam always offers comic relief Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Fast forward about a month and this storm track would be great for SNE. Would be great for all of New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I will say that it is weird to see such warm temps aloft with a track that far east, and such cool temps at the surface. Many models show this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I will say that it is weird to see such warm temps aloft with a track that far east, and such cool temps at the surface. Many models show this. NAM should have the "coldest" setup with that track and where the storm strengthens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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