CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Meteorology..not modelology Most modelling to be fair does show some snow in the interior hills If I were you, I'd rather be 50 miles NW. The warmer air aloft floods into CT. I'm not busting either. Most of us are adding value to the progs by hedging towards dynamic cooling and experience....and yet it still looks tough for something eventful in terms of snow, especially east of the Berks. If the low is ripping the atmosphere a new one just east of the BM...maybe we can hit it harder. There are so many variables that need to be considered, and one of them is the dynamics. Euro isn't great WRT that right now, but maybe that changes. 700mb temps are like -2C. Horrible. That means above 850mb, there might even be a sneaky warm layer...although I do not have soundings to look at. In dynamic cooling situations, you at least want 700mb to be below -8C I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 How much an issue is a 11.09 tide in BDR, surge value is 4.7 That would be an issue but I am very confident in a surge well under 4.7ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 5, 2012 Author Share Posted November 5, 2012 If I were you, I'd rather be 50 miles NW. The warmer air aloft floods into CT. I'm not busting either. Most of us are adding value to the progs by hedging towards dynamic cooling and experience....and yet it still looks tough for something eventful in terms of snow, especially east of the Berks. If the low is ripping the atmosphere a new one just east of the BM...maybe we can hit it harder. There are so many variables that need to be considered, and one of them is the dynamics. Euro isn't great WRT that right now, but maybe that changes. 700mb temps are like -2C. Horrible. That means above 850mb, there might even be a sneaky warm layer...although I do not have soundings to look at. In dynamic cooling situations, you at least want 700mb to be below -8C I think. Hi! (seriously not expecting much more than a 38F rainstorm with wind) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Hi! (seriously not expecting much more than a 38F rainstorm with wind) I could see a little snow for you, but I would keep expectations in check like you seem to be. We got time to figure this out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 If I were you, I'd rather be 50 miles NW. The warmer air aloft floods into CT. I'm not busting either. Most of us are adding value to the progs by hedging towards dynamic cooling and experience....and yet it still looks tough for something eventful in terms of snow, especially east of the Berks. If the low is ripping the atmosphere a new one just east of the BM...maybe we can hit it harder. There are so many variables that need to be considered, and one of them is the dynamics. Euro isn't great WRT that right now, but maybe that changes. 700mb temps are like -2C. Horrible. That means above 850mb, there might even be a sneaky warm layer...although I do not have soundings to look at. In dynamic cooling situations, you at least want 700mb to be below -8C I think. Yeah if the Euro was printing out uber-QPF with a bombing low off of MTP/BID I'd feel much better for the hills. This is a strong low, no doubt, but the dynamics really go crazy too far south. While this would work later in the season I don't think it will work now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 5, 2012 Author Share Posted November 5, 2012 BOX seems to like sleet up this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 BOX seems to like sleet up this way GFS was sleet up in the Berkshires for a while. Not much snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Looks like this will be equally entertaining as sandy for my area in the gust department, nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 If I were you, I'd rather be 50 miles NW. The warmer air aloft floods into CT. I'm not busting either. Most of us are adding value to the progs by hedging towards dynamic cooling and experience....and yet it still looks tough for something eventful in terms of snow, especially east of the Berks. If the low is ripping the atmosphere a new one just east of the BM...maybe we can hit it harder. There are so many variables that need to be considered, and one of them is the dynamics. Euro isn't great WRT that right now, but maybe that changes. 700mb temps are like -2C. Horrible. That means above 850mb, there might even be a sneaky warm layer...although I do not have soundings to look at. In dynamic cooling situations, you at least want 700mb to be below -8C I think. Without any snowpack or truly cold air available, should we look for best vv coinciding during night? (even more of a challenge) Sun angle still high, esp down in CT. Also the warm maritime air lurking nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 http://twitter.com/NWSBoston/status/265232829649154048/photo/1/large BOX seems to like sleet up this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 5, 2012 Author Share Posted November 5, 2012 http://twitter.com/N...8/photo/1/large lol...I saw that... Just basing it on the ever so humble p-n-c product... AFD is fun. * HEAVY WET SNOW...THE GFS AND CMC MODELS CAME IN WARMER THEN PREV RUNS...WITH THE EC STILL THE COLDEST. BELIEVE THE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE COLD AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM TO WELL. TEMPS ON MON AND ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH LOW ON TUES NIGHT IN THE 20S. THIS COLD AIR MASS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME REBOUNDING ON WED SO BELIEVE AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP SHIELD MOVING IN WILL ALLOW SOME HVY WET SNOW...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAINS AND INTO NH. WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL PUSH THE WARMER TEMPS INTO THE REGION SWITCH THE PTYPE INTO RAIN. BUT AS TEMPS DROP OVERNIGHT WED INTO THURS...EXPECT A WINTRY MIX ESP ACROSS NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Without any snowpack or truly cold air available, should we look for best vv coinciding during night? (even more of a challenge) Sun angle still high, esp down in CT. Also the warm maritime air lurking nearby. LOL sun angle is not all that relevant this time of year, but in a marginal atmosphere it wouldn't hurt to have it at night. The marine argument is more relevant aloft because winds aloft are pumping in mild air who's source region is well south of ACK. There will be a strong ageostrophic component to the wind I think with winds more nrly at the surface..especially N&W of BOS. It will be quite chilly at the surface..probably stay in the U30s in areas just inland. That coastal front will probably provide the focus for a QPF max near BOS. East of the front, winds will howl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 With that, watch the 00z NAM give GC 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 With that, watch the 00z NAM give GC 10". lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 With that, watch the 00z NAM give GC 10". 18z NAM gave 8" to ORH, lol. http://68.226.77.253/text/MESOSFC/NAM_KORH.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 http://twitter.com/N...8/photo/1/large Sweet, we're in the 'winter' bubble. Leaning 2-4" at 2K, T-2" on the east slope, rain for you and I though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 18z NAM gave 8" to ORH, lol. http://68.226.77.253...FC/NAM_KORH.txt Do you remember the 11/14/97 storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Do you remember the 11/14/97 storm? Yes...it was much colder than this one it progged to be. We actually had a lot of sleet in that one. But we did get snow too. I think we had about 5" total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Yes...it was much colder than this one it progged to be. We actually had a lot of sleet in that one. But we did get snow too. I think we had about 5" total. Yeah it's not an analog or anything, but we had sleet on the souh shore too. I was thinking back to earlier storms and I went back to look at that one. Very cold for ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Kevin being a dumbazz weenie This was raleighwx's tweet before @RaleighWx Nor'easter to bring wind, strong winds, more beach erosion to Northeast Wednesday-Friday. Euro shows band of 4-8 inches from central/eastern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Are there many (any?) examples of big sleet storms this early in Nov? BL issues make it seem really unlikely, but I don't have the memory that some of you do, nor know the history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Do you remember the 11/14/97 storm? I do...it snowed in the 20s all day. I think I had a high of 29F when I was living in Rockingham Co. It was a Friday and I drove back from LSC that afternoon which was a mess of a ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Yeah it's not an analog or anything, but we had sleet on the souh shore too. I was thinking back to earlier storms and I went back to look at that one. Very cold for ORH. It was basically a SW flow event but with a good high to the north. That day was 28/22 at ORH...that is pretty sick for 11/14. November 1997 was a pretty darn cold month. Unfortunately not a harbinger for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I do...it snowed in the 20s all day. I think I had a high of 29F when I was living in Rockingham Co. It was a Friday and I drove back from LSC that afternoon which was a mess of a ride. That was a pretty good ice storm in NE PA too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Even with cooler temperatures in the Albany area, I'd be worried about downsloping winds from the E-NE limiting the amount of precip. The euro hints at this with lower QPF in the Hudson Valley. Yeah there have been a few cases, e.g., Dec 1992, where the lower elevations of the capital district were strongly downsloped. But it doesn't happen every nor'easter... depends on the exact strength and orientation of the winds. The higher elevations east and west of ALB would do well based on the consensus modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 It was basically a SW flow event but with a good high to the north. That day was 28/22 at ORH...that is pretty sick for 11/14. November 1997 was a pretty darn cold month. Unfortunately not a harbinger for the winter. Kind of cool to have that and 12/23/97 too, but it ended there lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Evaporative cooling before marine influx? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Kind of cool to have that and 12/23/97 too, but it ended there lol. Yeah, we had a good system on 1/18 too (I think BOS did well here too but there was a very tight gradient...south of the pike had sleet and ZR), but after that we had the agonizing bust of Feb 24, 1998 and then to a lesser extent March 22. Winter ended on a sour note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Completely worthless but SREFs look pretty good... haha, they have some monsters in there. Nice deform band signal from Eastern New York up through Vermont on a bunch of the members. That makes me smile but I'd rather this go further east and we keep the cold snowmaking temps and get a chance for upslope once the storm hits the Maritimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Completely worthless but SREFs look pretty good... haha, they have some monsters in there. Nice deform band signal from Eastern New York up through Vermont on a bunch of the members. That makes me smile but I'd rather this go further east and we keep the cold snowmaking temps and get a chance for upslope once the storm hits the Maritimes. We know powderfreak is getting close to a Fukushima-esque meltdown when he starts wishing for SNE to get a marginal snow bomb in November so they can make marginal 27F man-made snow on Mansfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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