Ginx snewx Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STORM INTENSITY AND DURATION. THIS WILL GREATLY IMPACT POTENTIAL COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRO TIDES ARE LOW BUT BEGIN TO CLIMB WITH LATE THU TIDE CYCLE. GIVEN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES APPEAR TO BE IMPACTED FROM LATE WED THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THU...HIGH RISK OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE ENTIRE EASTERN MA COASTLINE INCLUDING CAPE COD/NANTUCKET AND MARTHAS VINEYARD. THE EUROPEAN MODEL /EC/ SOLUTION OFFERS THE LONGEST DURATION EVENT WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST AND THE UKMET IN THE MIDDLE. GIVEN PAST AND RECENT MODEL VERIFICATION WE ARE LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER EC. AT THE MOMENT TIDE CYCLE OF GREATEST CONCERN IS THE THU EARLY MORNING TIDE. THIS IS WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS AND SURGE APPEAR TO OCCUR. GFS/ET SURGE GUID OFFERS ABOUT A 2 FT SURGE WITH ESTOFS AROUND 3 FT. GIVEN THE LONG FETCH/STORM INTENSITY/GALE TO STORM FORCE ONSHORE WIND GUSTS WE LEANED TOWARD THE ESTOFS SURGE OF NEAR 3 FT FOR EASTERN MA THU AM HIGH TIDE. THIS WILL YIELD A STORM TIDE/TOTAL WATER LEVEL NEAR 12 FT AT BOSTON. THIS COMBINED WITH 15-20 FT SEAS JUST OFFSHORE WILL YIELD A HIGH PROBABILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...WITH A LOW RISK OF MODERATE FLOODING. IN ADDITION...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES BEING IMPACTED...LONG DURATION OF LARGE WAVE ACTION POUNDING THE EASTERN MA COASTLINE ALONG WITH MODEST WATER LEVELS...THE RISK OF SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS MODERATE TO HIGH. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Sort of ironic about the ridge in the east later next week..last year we had the prehalloween storm..dropped close to a foot here in Augusta Maine and then we had an open winter for the rest of the year..only spent 60.00 bucks on plowing for the rest of the season.$20 per storm....Keep in mind..this is Maine..It would be nice to see this again,sorry snow weenies.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 It is snowing. I mean here in SNE where people live Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 You might get lucky, but it's very hard there at almost sea level so early. It might snow for eight hours and never stick. Most likely you need to drive about 15-20 minutes into the hills to the west/southwest. All I want is to see one inch when im in Albany and ill be happy valley or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Kevs heavy heavy damage, areas near the coast under the inversion according to Met Dsnow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I wonder if my hood gusts higher this week than with Sandy...seems plausible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Raleigh wx on board. Hope DPW's have plows on trucks and salt @RaleighWx: Va into new England, although NYC/Phill/Boston spared big accumulations. 4-8 inches for DC Wed night. GFS shows snow in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Raleigh wx on board. Hope DPW's have plows on trucks and salt @RaleighWx: Va into new England, although NYC/Phill/Boston spared big accumulations. 4-8 inches for DC Wed night. GFS shows snow in New England. Are you sure this is a call, or a model interpretation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 5, 2012 Author Share Posted November 5, 2012 Kevin humping the GFS again...oh my... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 It wouldn't take much here... I wonder if my hood gusts higher this week than with Sandy...seems plausible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Steve, once you get further north into CT, the inversion is lower in the atmosphere...925mb actually appears to be above the inversion for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Happy Torchgiving. a brief cool interlude - then warm streak continues through end of month. The 18z GFS starts to develop a very favorable Alaska block at Day 10, so I don't see the warmth continuing unabated through the end of November. Although the Alaska block initially leads to a strong -PNA and accompanying SE ridge, the GFS has been consistently showing high pressure sprawling out over the Canadian Prairies and bringing much colder weather to the Northeast by Thanksgiving. I think we only see a few days of torching, followed by a gradual cool-down that is more pronounced the further north you go. Interestingly, long-range modeling shows a Niña-like pattern with a -EPO keeping the Northern Tier frigid while the South is warmer than average with a lack of storminess. I think any forecasts of a warm December as per Niño climo are going to be a bust, especially for places from NYC north and then back to the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains where temperatures could turn frigid with Canada being cold. Here is the blocking feature, sort of a combined -EPO/Aleutian ridge that amplifies poleward: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Steve, once you get further north into CT, the inversion is lower in the atmosphere...925mb actually appears to be above the inversion for you guys. Thanks, Cape Cod areas seem to be in line for 60 MPH gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Thanks, Cape Cod areas seem to be in line for 60 MPH gusts. At least. GFS profiles are pretty impressive in the wind department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Thanks, Cape Cod areas seem to be in line for 60 MPH gusts. 55-65 gusts for you and me with lower inversion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Will CLP lose over 100,000 customers with this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 55-65 gusts for you and me with lower inversion? 45? Coast 55? Heavy rain and trees on the fringe might be a bad combo for some. Think it's the Capes turn to get raked. Long duration event again. Surge maps 2-4 , surf forecasts 7-12 feet, that's an issue in open ocean beaches and sound areas that eroded bad. Thankfully tides are low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Will CLP lose over 100,000 customers with this? at least in my neck of the woods, there are alot of trees still leaning and some partially broken off branches---a big windstorm especially with some heavy rains will definitely bring some of these down IMO still 18% out here and schools closed yet again tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 55-65 gusts for you and me with lower inversion? Will CLP lose over 100,000 customers with this? LOL... doesn't really look impressive up your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Thanks, Cape Cod areas seem to be in line for 60 MPH gusts. Certainly seems possible. Even the 975mb winds are pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 LOL... doesn't really look impressive up your way. I'll gladly take 1-3 inches of sloppy snow this time..Surprised you didn't even mention accumulating snow tonight.Odd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 The track on the GFS and position of the deformation is just classic for this area though if it was winter. Hopefully we can pull out some wet snow. Or maybe the higher areas will anyway. The ECM seems to reflect the colder 850 temps under that enhanced band...but that's not to be found on the GFS. The GFS conservatively shows a 6 hours period and .5" liquid equivalent of snow before a mix or changeover for the ALB area. I would be concerned about warmer than modeled 800ish mb temps, which could result in more sleet or frz rain hilltop/valley rain. But as modeled, this is a snowstorm for ENY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I'll gladly take 1-3 inches of sloppy snow this time..Surprised you didn't even mention accumulating snow tonight.Odd No model shows that. Why would I? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Kind of ballsy to go 4-8" for DC. I think the Cape could gust near 70 if models like the GFS have an idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 No model shows that. Why would I? How much an issue is a 11.09 tide in BDR, surge value is 4.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 The GFS conservatively shows a 6 hours period and .5" liquid equivalent of snow before a mix or changeover for the ALB area. I would be concerned about warmer than modeled 800ish mb temps, which could result in more sleet or frz rain hilltop/valley rain. But as modeled, this is a snowstorm for ENY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 No model shows that. Why would I? Meteorology..not modelology Most modelling to be fair does show some snow in the interior hills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 The GFS conservatively shows a 6 hours period and .5" liquid equivalent of snow before a mix or changeover for the ALB area. I would be concerned about warmer than modeled 800ish mb temps, which could result in more sleet or frz rain hilltop/valley rain. But as modeled, this is a snowstorm for ENY. Even with cooler temperatures in the Albany area, I'd be worried about downsloping winds from the E-NE limiting the amount of precip. The euro hints at this with lower QPF in the Hudson Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Meteorology..not modelology Most modelling to be fair does show some snow in the interior hills And meteorology tells me the phase is just too early. We want a bomb near MVY... not something filling off of ACY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 The 18z GFS starts to develop a very favorable Alaska block at Day 10, so I don't see the warmth continuing unabated through the end of November. Although the Alaska block initially leads to a strong -PNA and accompanying SE ridge, the GFS has been consistently showing high pressure sprawling out over the Canadian Prairies and bringing much colder weather to the Northeast by Thanksgiving. I think we only see a few days of torching, followed by a gradual cool-down that is more pronounced the further north you go. Interestingly, long-range modeling shows a Niña-like pattern with a -EPO keeping the Northern Tier frigid while the South is warmer than average with a lack of storminess. I think any forecasts of a warm December as per Niño climo are going to be a bust, especially for places from NYC north and then back to the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains where temperatures could turn frigid with Canada being cold. Here is the blocking feature, sort of a combined -EPO/Aleutian ridge that amplifies poleward: Avg highs quickly heading through 40s by November 15th, so not sure we go cold (overall) anytime soon. Agree, December will probably not be warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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