Logan11 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 For the NAM to be correct the Euro would have to be quite far off for all these runs.. Fat chance... Close to a Tolland Toaster Bath. I think he'd lose it if he gets a wet coating and ORH gets 6" or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 For the NAM to be correct the Euro would have to be quite far off for all these runs.. Fat chance... I think we all know the nam is a hoot past 24-48hrs. Don't worry, we're just having fun with it and we aren't trying to take your snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 This is not what the NNE ski areas want to see to start their snow making season. By the way, this is immediately after whatever transpires of this ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 I think we all know the nam is a hoot past 24-48hrs. Don't worry, we're just having fun with it and we aren't trying to take your snow. What snow? Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 It is but aren't our surface temps in the mid 30s or do you have better gaphics. Some of the lower elevations of SENY got 10+ inches of snow last October with surface temps that never dropped below 33.5F. It made me a true believer that snow intensity can win the battle against ground and air temperatures in some circumstances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 4, 2012 Author Share Posted November 4, 2012 Red tagger/moderator/admin piggy pile... Darnit, someone set up a gtg! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 This is not what the NNE ski areas want to see to start their snow making season. If it is any consolation - I don't think it will last very long. Far from certain on this, but the polar field indices appear to have returned to a longer term tendency that's marked by negative bias. Last year was a huge stat anomaly relative to the multi-decadal curve, which had descended less than 0 over the last 5 years. The curve show a pretty dependable 20 year periodicity that of course might break down every now and then, as last year certainly showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 What snow? Lol. It was tongue-in-cheek. Some of the runs have brought that deformation axis right over his head. Peeps from outside of the region sometimes like to remind us that weenie snow runs from unfavorable models aren't likely. I always appreciate their concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 It is but aren't our surface temps in the mid 30s or do you have better gaphics. Yeah I just mean the general area. Like we were discussing earlier....surface temps are warm, but the elevate spots near Randy may pull some accumulation. I liked the comma head look, but I think temps near the surface are a wee bit mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 I dunno - it wouldn't shock me if the 800ft els wound up with a blue bomb out of this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 If it is any consolation - I don't think it will last very long. Don't tell toronto blizzard, but the ec ens have well above normal heights for us through d15 after this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 I like those clown maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Don't tell toronto blizzard, but the ec ens have well above normal heights for us through d15 after this storm. Hey I'll take a ridge there in place of that stupid vortex in AK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Hey I'll take a ridge there in place of that stupid vortex. Trust me...I will too. The extended looks a bit boring on the ens though...dominated by sfc highs and some decent fall diurnal ranges over the interior? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Trust me...I will too. The extended looks a bit boring on the ens though...dominated by sfc highs and some decent fall diurnal ranges over the interior? NOT BORING! Some beautiful cyclogenesis in the north Atlantic off Iceland will be fun to watch on the water vapor loop!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 NOT BORING! Some beautiful cyclogenesis in the north Atlantic off Iceland will be fun to watch on the water vapor loop!!!! Maybe we can start naming polar lows after board members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Trust me...I will too. The extended looks a bit boring on the ens though...dominated by sfc highs and some decent fall diurnal ranges over the interior? Yeah looks a little meh. Just hoping maybe the ridge shifts east a little towards T day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 It was tongue-in-cheek. Some of the runs have brought that deformation axis right over his head. Peeps from outside of the region sometimes like to remind us that weenie snow runs from unfavorable models aren't likely. I always appreciate their concern. Heh, mine was too. The "snow" that we are trying to "steal" is like a narrow 1-2" of slush. Maybe someone gets lucky and picks up 4" of cement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Yeah looks a little meh. Just hoping maybe the ridge shifts east a little towards T day. I'd rather have a boring pattern now than waste it on blue bombs and upslope for PF. Let's save it for T Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 18z GFS.... snow for DT???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Interesting that the GFS wraps up pretty far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 I know you guys are just kidding around about the snow versus no snow etc. No big deal. A slushy inch or two would be great for Nov. 7th really. Unfortunately I do live 45 miles from the border of the region, but I have been posting here for 12 years ...counting WWBB. ...and 18 years counting ne.weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 It is going to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Euro is definitely the coldest of the globals. The GFS op and ensembles are much much warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Happy Torchgiving. a brief cool interlude - then warm streak continues through end of month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 It is going to snow It is snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Euro is definitely the coldest of the globals. The GFS op and ensembles are much much warmer. 18Z gefs have this over the Cape. Funny to see them more amped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 GFS seems stronger with the initial s/w and induces bombogenesis with that. It doesn't incorporate the energy on the back side of the trough like the euro does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 All I want is to see one inch when im in Albany and ill be happy valley or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 The track on the GFS and position of the deformation is just classic for this area though if it was winter. Hopefully we can pull out some wet snow. Or maybe the higher areas will anyway. The ECM seems to reflect the colder 850 temps under that enhanced band...but that's not to be found on the GFS. Euro is definitely the coldest of the globals. The GFS op and ensembles are much much warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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