weathafella Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Official outlook? Squirrels a nonfactor? I hope you are right Fuk squirrels! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 They also don't occlude the low as quick which also means probably stronger precip rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 NAM arriving a scoosh stronger with the trough crossing inside of 60 hours - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 You know what's funny ? the conditioning that's gone on around here over the last 2 weeks. After watching Sandy in the models, below seems almost blase but imagine the tone on this board if Sandy never happened, and there was a cold cyclone of this intensity: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 NAM always good for a weenie solution. Gives ORH a little paste bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 I do think northern ORH hills and berks have a period of wet snow out of this. How much remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 NAM always good for a weenie solution. Gives ORH a little paste bomb. Yeah - ha I'm just psyched for such a strong coastal. And I call this number 2, because in the absence of Sandy there would likely have been a coastal cyclogenesis - Sandy stole the show. Anyway, there's a sig correlation between cyclogen frequency in Oct-Nov to that of DJF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 nam is 987 at 72hrs and 972mb at 84hrs what a bomb lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 NAM always good for a weenie solution. Gives ORH a little paste bomb. Yea - another suspicious angle, the NAM is stronger yet farther east. It seems okay aloft, but it swinging the lead impulse way right which looks a little odd - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 18z nam slightly east of the BM 976 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 18z nam slightly east of the BM 976 mb SV snowfall algorithm is 4-6" for northern ORH county. Pretty marginal even there though. If it bombs out like that though its possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 4, 2012 Author Share Posted November 4, 2012 SV snowfall algorithm is 4-6" for northern ORH county. Pretty marginal even there though. If it bombs out like that though its possible. Bring it baby Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 suppose for some weird reason that 84 hour panel took place - the cyclone would almost have to move NW from that position for a frame or two, given to the huge amount of jet dynamics still pouring into the underbelly of the trough - that's not really the completed phase at that point in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Not that it means anything but the 12z JMA is a monster haha See joe bastardis tweet from earlier. Damn lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 suppose for some weird reason that 84 hour panel took place - the cyclone would almost have to move NW from that position for a frame or two, given to the huge amount of jet dynamics still pouring into the underbelly of the trough - that's not really the completed phase at that point in time. Well that's why we run the DGEX...to take weenie NAM solutions further out into time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 SV snowfall algorithm is 4-6" for northern ORH county. Pretty marginal even there though. If it bombs out like that though its possible. Was similar here in central maine as well as a few inches here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 By the way, this is immediately after whatever transpires of this ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 That's an El Torcho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Not that it means anything but the 12z JMA is a monster haha See joe bastardis tweet from earlier. Damn lol I heard it was a 904mb low that triggered an apocalyptic Earthquake with an epicenter on Mt Tolland CT ...so yeah - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 The Euro looks nice for PF and not bad here for a first snowfall. It still wants to sit the deformation about 30 miles too far west for me, but 850 temps are all below 0c and as low as minor -4c under that band. Maybe the superior ECM is gonna be better with that thermal profile than the mild GFS...we can hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Well that's why we run the DGEX...to take weenie NAM solutions further out into time. The 84 hour 18z run is OK with me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Bring it baby Lol I'm with ya...rooting for a SNE paste job which means the mountain can keep making snow up here as winds stay northerly. Even if it snows up here the snowmaking will have to stop as I'm sure it would be a marginal situation with high humidity. So let's go ORH...lol. 24 hours of snowmaking trumps 3-6" of wet snow at this point. Gut feeling still saying it rains to Montreal though...can't shake that one for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 I heard it was a 904mb low that triggered an apocalyptic Earthquake with an epicenter on Mt Tolland CT ...so yeah - Actually is was a 898mb low. Jeez. Come on now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Kind of interesting for DC. It is but aren't our surface temps in the mid 30s or do you have better gaphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Riding the isothermal 0C roller coaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 The 84 hour 18z run is OK with me Close to a Tolland Toaster Bath. I think he'd lose it if he gets a wet coating and ORH gets 6" or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 The 84 hour 18z run is OK with me You clown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 4, 2012 Author Share Posted November 4, 2012 The 84 hour 18z run is OK with me 9" on my weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 That's an El Torcho I suspect it's short lived though and they are biting too hard on that as a real pattern change - I don't think so, if so. The longer term settling state will return L/W amplitude intervals to the 90W region. We'll have to suffer perhaps 2 ...maybe 3 days of horrible miserable disgusting 63F days with sunshine - I know - before the pattern reloads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 4, 2012 Author Share Posted November 4, 2012 I'm with ya...rooting for a SNE paste job which means the mountain can keep making snow up here as winds stay northerly. Even if it snows up here the snowmaking will have to stop as I'm sure it would be a marginal situation with high humidity. So let's go ORH...lol. 24 hours of snowmaking trumps 3-6" of wet snow at this point. Gut feeling still saying it rains to Montreal though...can't shake that one for some reason. Same here... but a few magled sloppy flakes will be a nice change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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