ORH_wxman Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Lol...the wunderground Euro weenie snow maps give like 6-8" for around here. I would doubt more than an inch in that setup. Those maps are terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 WSI maps don't...but hopefully you get something. Might be weenie smoothing lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Lol...the wunderground Euro weenie snow maps give like 6-8" for around here. I would doubt more than an inch in that setup. Those maps are terrible. Yet people use them. It's the JI/CTBlizz algorithm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 12z euro is probably 1-3" in most of northern ad western VT by 12z Thursday morning before we rise to near 40F by 18z. This thing occluded way too early for anything to significant anywhere really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Yet people use them. It's the JI/CTBlizz algorithm. Yeah, the graphics are cool looking and they were fun to look at when they first came out...but after a good sample of them, its clear they are almost useless. They are extremely weenie-ish most of the time too...always showing way more snow than what would actually happen. Regardless, I guess we can say at this point that it is possible for maybe a period of marginal accumulating snow in the first few hours of this storm, but it could easily just be mostly cold rain with a few mangled flakes above 1500 feet as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Yeah, the graphics are cool looking and they were fun to look at when they first came out...but after a good sample of them, its clear they are almost useless. They are extremely weenie-ish most of the time too...always showing way more snow than what would actually happen. Regardless, I guess we can say at this point that it is possible for maybe a period of marginal accumulating snow in the first few hours of this storm, but it could easily just be mostly cold rain with a few mangled flakes above 1500 feet as well. It's cold for a time at 925. I'm on the phone but I can email you when I get back. Even something 50 miles easy would help a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Right now it's time to ride the Ukie with 4-8 of paste Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Right now it's time to ride the Ukie with 4-8 of paste I'm not sure the Ukie even shows much snow...we cannot see the 850 temps on their maps. We've seen the GFS track over the BM and show zero snow for anyone. This airmass is pretty bad to try and get snow for early November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Negative NAO is breaking down, and shifting east. There's more of an Atlantic ridge pattern and when the downstream s/w ridge is superimposed on it, shifts all useful upper level confluence way northeast. Excellent track, but the pattern is not conducive to big snow in New England now Yeah all true, but we are already one up on last winter lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Yeah all true, but we are already one up on last winter lol. Not at all. Keene is currently 20" behind last winter lol *I will continue to have fun with this statistic for the next month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 So from Blizz it sounds like its going to snow? 12z GFS is close to nice up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Not at all. Keene is currently 20" behind last winter lol *I will continue to have fun with this statistic for the next month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 So from Blizz it sounds like its going to snow? 12z GFS is close to nice up here. The KFS will guide us to a winter wonderland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 So from Blizz it sounds like its going to snow? 12z GFS is close to nice up here. Just keep all cordage locked up through mid-month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 does the shore really need a strong noreaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 What is the KFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 So from Blizz it sounds like its going to snow? 12z GFS is close to nice up here. Per my (very) amateur analysis of 12z GFS, Looks like the 850 flow from the east ruins things for my area. Surface and 850's are both above 0c the entire time precip is falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 I love all the strategic trolling ... a behavior that is cheating within the niceties of the rules - ha I dunno - the Euro has gotten about .3F colder ever run over the last 4 or 5 cycles, period. I'm probably the only one that finds this interesting, but the NOGAPs and GGEM were very snowy for western Mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Pete says he is confident of snow in GC. So from Blizz it sounds like its going to snow? 12z GFS is close to nice up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 We are all pulling for the Berks and higher elevations sw of Albany to get snow. I know I am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 The most reliable model for areas at 1000 ft + in CT. What is the KFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Just keep all cordage locked up through mid-month. I've got a chair and rope all ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 We are all pulling for the Berks and higher elevations sw of Albany to get snow. I know I am. No more love for the picnic tables? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 No more love for the picnic tables? Don't fret, they'll be white again fairly soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Euro ensembles are a bit east of the 00z run, stronger, and a touch colder. They would offer a chance for at least a period of snow in the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Euro Ensembles have been pretty steady showing the storm further east near the BM and colder in the interior over the last several runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 4, 2012 Author Share Posted November 4, 2012 The trend is our... ...oh, never mind Colder rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 I love cold rain in early November. Remember, cold rain in November can be a blizzard in December. Big....I daresay potentially historic winter incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 I love cold rain in early November. Remember, cold rain in November can be a blizzard in December. Big....I daresay potentially historic winter incoming. Strongly agree....I am VERY optimistic about this winter Jerry. Even down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 4, 2012 Author Share Posted November 4, 2012 I love cold rain in early November. Remember, cold rain in November can be a blizzard in December. Big....I daresay potentially historic winter incoming. Official outlook? Squirrels a nonfactor? I hope you are right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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