CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I'm now not worried about the temps but worried about the heaviest precip being over southern del lol They'll be some shifts one way or another over the next day. This is a complicated pattern topped off with a marginal atmosphere. Oy Vey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 not to mention, the ratios wouldnt be 10;1, prob more of a 5:1 Wasn't the break point last year for trees with leaves about 3 inches? Even at 5:1 that still creates problems around here for trees that still have leaves. Of course if it were to verify. Not getting my hopes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 if euro verifies its a good thing sandy came through knocking down the remaining leaves otherwise it would be a repeat to last yr power outages up this way. but then again do many trees have weakened roots due to sandy's wind/rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 The HB storm...meh close enough. lol. Sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 lol. Sorry Meh but I screwed up the end of October in terms of the phasing potential in the long range. It wasn't that the -AO, buckling, colder air etc. was missed or even the heightened tropical development risk was missed...I think we all got that right. I guess you just can't forecast something like frankenstorm months in advance and be taken seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 if euro verifies its a good thing sandy came through knocking down the remaining leaves otherwise it would be a repeat to last yr power outages up this way. but then again do many trees have weakened roots due to sandy's wind/rain? Down here in Delco there is a good amount of trees with leaves still on them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 ^ where did our blow torch mod post this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Try that again. I misplaced the basemap. First guess: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I think that is a reasonable first guess. Looks similar to what I think. Plenty of time to trim back or boost totals in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Accuweathers map is horrendous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Even mixing down this way would be nothing short of astonishing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Max surge based on 12z GFS. Fortuneately this is predicted to occur at low tide and tides are low because of moon phase still the high tides before and after this low could see 3' surge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Expecting rain here but if something else falls from the sky then I will take it as a bonus! Feel bad for the Jersey coast though where they will take another battering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Wasn't the break point last year for trees with leaves about 3 inches? Even at 5:1 that still creates problems around here for trees that still have leaves. Of course if it were to verify. Not getting my hopes up. More like an inch, inch and a half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I have 850-500RH/VV from the euro, and it pegs a great area near PHL to just east of DCA. As of now, that would be my sweet spot and obviously some of those 500'+ hills would make out awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I have 850-500RH/VV from the euro, and it pegs a great area near PHL to just east of DCA. As of now, that would be my sweet spot and obviously some of those 500'+ hills would make out awesome. Yep, it's becoming a question of where, not when Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 if euro verifies its a good thing sandy came through knocking down the remaining leaves otherwise it would be a repeat to last yr power outages up this way. but then again do many trees have weakened roots due to sandy's wind/rain? Unless people weren't being honest, from what everyone said there was an earlier peak this year than last, and this storm is later, so no matter what it wouldn't have been "as bad". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I have 850-500RH/VV from the euro, and it pegs a great area near PHL to just east of DCA. As of now, that would be my sweet spot and obviously some of those 500'+ hills would make out awesome. Music to my ears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 More like an inch, inch and a half. I guess this just furthers my point lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I have 850-500RH/VV from the euro, and it pegs a great area near PHL to just east of DCA. As of now, that would be my sweet spot and obviously some of those 500'+ hills would make out awesome. In regards to temps, the 850mb low position and temps would argue for a wet snow closer to the coast than previously advertised? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I have 850-500RH/VV from the euro, and it pegs a great area near PHL to just east of DCA. As of now, that would be my sweet spot and obviously some of those 500'+ hills would make out awesome. Thanks man, I wonder if this would be the first time this area has had a tropical storm and then accumulating snow within 2 weeks lol. Off hand what are some of Philly's biggest Nov snowfalls, especifically before mid-month? Anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 In regards to temps, the 850mb low position and temps would argue for a wet snow closer to the coast than previously advertised? even on the euro you get snow to the coast. Not as much as along 95, but you get in on it for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 More like an inch, inch and a half. nah, it was more than that. 3-4" was about right in the LV. I'm talking widespread, and not occasional weak branches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I guess this just furthers my point lol I should qualify that by saying that the ratio matters A LOT. 1-2 inches of very low ratio slop falling at a fast rate, as happened last October, will start taking down branches. A light fluffy 1-2 inches will hardly matter at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Unless people weren't being honest, from what everyone said there was an earlier peak this year than last, and this storm is later, so no matter what it wouldn't have been "as bad". It was earlier by 7-10 days, good thing too because Sandy would have caused way more destruction in SE PA had our trees had more leaves on them. Luckily they didn't and it was mainly pines that took a beating. Last year the breaking point was 4-5 inches of snow on trees that had lots of leaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 nah, it was more than that. 3-4" was about right in the LV. I'm talking widespread, and not occasional weak branches. Yeah, I should've qualified that by mentioning the ratio. You probably had higher ratios up there than I did down at TTN. I started to hear snapping branches not long after we passed 1 inch. But we had a ridiculously low ratio... 3 or 4 to 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I'm now left wondering if consensus will slowly start shifting everything slowly eastward taking the best dynamics out of our area and off the coast instead. Hmm..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 In regards to temps, the 850mb low position and temps would argue for a wet snow closer to the coast than previously advertised? It's gonna depend on how this low wraps up and where. I expect a 50-80 mile wide band of heavy precip rates where it probably will flip to snow. As Adam said, the question is where, not really if or when. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Thanks man, I wonder if this would be the first time this area has had a tropical storm and then accumulating snow within 2 weeks lol. Off hand what are some of Philly's biggest Nov snowfalls, especifically before mid-month? Anyone? The big one was Nov 6-7, 1953. Low path was not that different than current, execpt it continued NW into N NJ. . Phl - 9", Millville 15" Lancaster 18"Wilmington 12", Lock Haven 30". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted November 5, 2012 Author Share Posted November 5, 2012 Wait, it's going to snow here Wed? What? I thought it was going to be rain. Then 70s this weekend. What is going on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.