tombo82685 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 tombo to be fair I'd wait to get a sounding from the NAM until the it brings the strong uvvs overhead. I'm telling you, it's going to snow, will it accumulate? idk, but I'm honestly starting to think it might happen lol ala the GFS, GFS brings some nice frontogenesis in the region, cant wait for soundings. Going to be a snow/slop fest imo Brett, the 12z gfs is a heck of a lot colder, probably cause of the deform band. My question to you is though, does it really matter if it snows but doesn't accumulate? Thats like saying the eagles put up 600 yds of total offense but lost the game. I said before i could see snow in phl but i dint see accumulations. I think you need to get 15 or 20 miles away from the city with some elev. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Anywhere i can find the maps for the 0ct snowstorm last y? I tried NARR but its not loading. I just wanted to see what the 850 temps with that storm were. Cause if you remember it all came down to that deform band to, and that storm had more cold air to work with i believe. That deform band changed philly over to sleet and snow, but they managed .6 which was majority sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Anywhere i can find the maps for the 0ct snowstorm last y? I tried NARR but its not loading. I just wanted to see what the 850 temps with that storm were. Cause if you remember it all came down to that deform band to, and that storm had more cold air to work with i believe. That deform band changed philly over to sleet and snow, but they managed .6 which was majority sleet. Ahem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Ahem Your site is great BTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Ahem whats the link to it, i know it got changed edit: saw it in your sig Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I agree with Tombo. I can see frozen precip falling from the sky in PHL but I can't envision that it can accumulate on the ground (outsied of a 1/4" of slop) especially if it falls during the daytime. I would think given climo we would need the column too cool below freezing even moreso b/c of the elevated ground temps we currently have given it's November and we haven't seen even one hard freeze yet. Like last October elevation will be key if you want to pick up a shovel. However given the strange weather phenomena we have experienced over the recent years in this area nothing would surprise me. ***** I just wanted to note that I have been lurking and read nearly everything during Sandy in the PHL/NYC/NE threads and I have to compliment the posters here, they are hands down the best. The posts are relevant, informative and highly on topic here and everyone is to be commended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Your site is great BTW. Thanks Anyway, 850 temps were just shy of 0C through that storm at PHL. They surged a bit warmer right at 18Z (when some areas which had mixed turned over to rain again and some places that had gone to snow mixed with sleet, like TTN). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Since am19psu coined this the "Highzenberg" storm I decided to make a first guess. Obviously it's not perfect, I suck at photoshop. This is my early opinion on where the deform sets up. The map up towards NY & SNE is probably wrong, I'm focused mainly on our area and west-southwest. If this isn't allowed on the forum I have no problem with you guys deleting it. I don't see JBs map verifying at all because I don't think the precip shield will advance that far. Plus I really feel you'll need to be under the heaviest precip to get snow. I guess the snow could extend eastward into C NJ but for now I think this is a good compromise between the EURO, GGEM, & GFS. Please make note of the extreme detail that went into this . I'm new to the forum so if this isn't allowed I apologize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I agree with Tombo. I can see frozen precip falling from the sky in PHL but I can't envision that it can accumulate on the ground (outsied of a 1/4" of slop) especially if it falls during the daytime. I would think given climo we would need the column too cool below freezing even moreso b/c of the elevated ground temps we currently have given it's November and we haven't seen even one hard freeze yet. Like last October elevation will be key if you want to pick up a shovel. However given the strange weather phenomena we have experienced over the recent years in this area nothing would surprise me. ***** I just wanted to note that I have been lurking and read nearly everything during Sandy in the PHL/NYC/NE threads and I have to compliment the posters here, they are hands down the best. The posts are relevant, informative and highly on topic here and everyone is to be commended. I *can* envision an accumulation at PHL, but I wouldn't call it likely. Not yet. Somewhere it will happen. Daytime doesn't matter much this time of year, remember the sun angle is about as strong as early February. Most of the burbs did have a hard freeze. PHL is the anomaly (unlike last year's October storm where most places didn't freeze until during or after the snow). Elevation was only partly key to last October. The other part was, as with this one, mid level warming. From PHL S and E it was just too warm at the midlevels for much snow to fall last October. This time may be a bit different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I *can* envision an accumulation at PHL, but I wouldn't call it likely. Not yet. Somewhere it will happen. Daytime doesn't matter much this time of year, remember the sun angle is about as strong as early February. Most of the burbs did have a hard freeze. PHL is the anomaly (unlike last year's October storm where most places didn't freeze until during or after the snow). Elevation was only partly key to last October. The other part was, as with this one, mid level warming. From PHL S and E it was just too warm at the midlevels for much snow to fall last October. This time may be a bit different. Maybe, but I would think it's less likley than more. I hope I am surprised, but I am holding off my "inner weenie" from taking hold. I am also speaking generally PHL (city, south and east) in terms of where I find it higly unlikely to see any accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Since am19psu coined this the "Highzenberg" storm I decided to make a first guess. Obviously it's not perfect, I suck at photoshop. This is my early opinion on where the deform sets up. The map up towards NY & SNE is probably wrong, I'm focused mainly on our area and west-southwest. If this isn't allowed on the forum I have no problem with you guys deleting it. I don't see JBs map verifying at all because I don't think the precip shield will advance that far. Plus I really feel you'll need to be under the heaviest precip to get snow. I guess the snow could extend eastward into C NJ but for now I think this is a good compromise between the EURO, GGEM, & GFS. Please make note of the extreme detail that went into this . I'm new to the forum so if this isn't allowed I apologize. Looks good, but the purple, 4-8 may fall out of the sky but won't stick. Maybe an inch or two on the grass. I remember with the October storm last year, Bethlehem pa, which I believe is somewhere around 300 ' elevation, had 6" of snow that was mainly on the grass, granted it still wrecked property. I'm I'm schnecksville pa, roughly 700' elevation, I had a foot of snow and as soon as the snow started dumping it stuck to every surface. I'm not saying that's how it'll set up. But even though the jackpot zones may have heavy snow and more frozen qpf falling from the sky, the higher elevated locations even with less qpf will see the accumulations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Maybe, but I would think it's less likley than more. I hope I am surprised, but I am holding off my "inner weenie" from taking hold. I am also speaking generally PHL (city, south and east) in terms of where I find it higly unlikely to see any accums. Just FYI, this is the kind of thinking that fooled almost everyone (mets included) into not expecting any significant snow on the coastal plain on 4/9/1996. Then the deformation band set up WWD to BLM and ACY had 8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Looks good, but the purple, 4-8 may fall out of the sky but won't stick. Maybe an inch or two on the grass. I remember with the October storm last year, Bethlehem pa, which I believe is somewhere around 300 ' elevation, had 6" of snow that was mainly on the grass, granted it still wrecked property. I'm I'm schnecksville pa, roughly 700' elevation, I had a foot of snow and as soon as the snow started dumping it stuck to every surface. I'm not saying that's how it'll set up. But even though the jackpot zones may have heavy snow and more frozen qpf falling from the sky, the higher elevated locations even with less qpf will see the accumulations I think the gray area on the east side towards NJ/PA line would be snow that doesn't stick. I think if it starts snowing heavy with the frontogenesis that is showing up on the models it will be coming down too hard for it not to stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I think the gray area on the east side towards NJ/PA line would be snow that doesn't stick. I think if it starts snowing heavy with the frontogenesis that is showing up on the models it will be coming down too hard for it not to stick. That's the key. Heavy snow. I think it was falling at 1 or 2" an hour last year and that's why It stuck so good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 GFS has a good setup for PHL snow with 850 low center well to the SE if precip rates are hard enough. Still a lot of time for bullseye to move around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 euro and gfs very similar through 54. euro possibly a nudge east of GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 highzenberg storm ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 highzenberg storm ftw Who needs TWC names when you can name them after American Weather newbies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 PHL/ILG 8-12", TTN 6-8" on Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 PHL/ILG 8-12", TTN 6-8" on Euro How far west does the precip get to? Sharp cut off at all? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 PHL/ILG 8-12", TTN 6-8" on Euro lol just nudge my snowfall map NE, this is awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 How far west does the precip get to? Sharp cut off at all? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 How far west does it come? As far as reading? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 There's a 6hr window where the lift really goes to town. That would be the accumulation time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I'm now not worried about the temps but worried about the heaviest precip being over southern del lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thedude11 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 PHL/ILG 8-12", TTN 6-8" on Euro I'd imagine those amounts would be cut down until it falls hard enough to stick... Regardless, there is a pretty strong signal now - GFS getting colder with each passing run and the EURO remaining quite consistent with this storm system. Very interesting start to November to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 yea the euro actually has thicknesses that support snow now with phl getting 1inch qpf. 850 stays below 0 the whole time, temps in the 30s. A wet paste snow if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 not to mention, the ratios wouldnt be 10;1, prob more of a 5:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 highzenberg storm ftw The HB storm...meh close enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 PHL/ILG 8-12", TTN 6-8" on Euro thats not even funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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