tombo82685 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 NAM shows the potential of this storm. Thing is really deep & slow moving. Step towards EURO, I'm hoping they meet halfway to give us a snowstorm in terms of deepening storm yes, but its thermal profile for the area is like the gfs though. The nam almost has more of a sleet sounding, though the surface is way to warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 JB tweet "ECMWF idea is where I am here and it's been consistent and ugly. Heavy snows inland could knock out power from DC to NJ" see, this is where JB gets too much into hypster mode. With very few leaves left on trees in the potential snow zone, 4-8 inches of snow even if it verifies isn't going to bring that many trees onto power lines. His statement is irresponsible IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 We all know thermal profiles are questionable this go around. It's climo. Tom, while the sounding is "warm", we don't get under the deform band on the NAM. Dynamic cooling is the way of the beast here. You can look at the sounding all you want, but you also got to take other things into consideration. 1. Where does the deform band set up 2. Does it cool the column enough ? 3.how much snow for Drexel Hill compared to thundersnow in broomall.? (Just for laughs there) Timing will be key. Where this low starts to bomb and set up shop will be key. Too early, we torch, too late, we miss out on the deform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 We all know thermal profiles are questionable this go around. It's climo. Tom, while the sounding is "warm", we don't get under the deform band on the NAM. Dynamic cooling is the way of the beast here. You can look at the sounding all you want, but you also got to take other things into consideration. 1. Where does the deform band set up 2. Does it cool the column enough ? 3.how much snow for Drexel Hill compared to thundersnow in broomall.? (Just for laughs there) Timing will be key. Where this low starts to bomb and set up shop will be key. Too early, we torch, too late, we miss out on the deform. i agree with that but where is this cold air coming from? thickness wise doesnt even support snow around the city...even on the euro it has a cold pocket of sub 540 thicknesses but that is displaced down by dc and south lns to abe on north and west i def can see snow but around the city i see rain/snow mix or snow that never accumulates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 The 12z NAM really rachets up the wind potential along the coast. IMO, this is the most serious aspect of the storm. It would be great to see the first snowfall of the season to get it behind everyone, but I think 2-3 inches outside the Poconos/NWNJ is about it for potential, and Irishbri74 is right that the needle must be thread in order to get that. More likely snow is in the air, with a slushy 1/2" being the rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 see, this is where JB gets too much into hypster mode. With very few leaves left on trees in the potential snow zone, 4-8 inches of snow even if it verifies isn't going to bring that many trees onto power lines. His statement is irresponsible IMHO. in South Central PA, many trees are still loaded with their leaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 in South Central PA, many trees are still loaded with their leaves. still?? Wouldn't have believed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 No leaves in the Lehigh valley , not sure how anyone still has leaves after those winds the other day. And I agree about the snow remarks sunny and warm. Anyone who has hopes of 9" of snow falling in major cities is setting themselves up for a sad sad day lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 tombo to be fair I'd wait to get a sounding from the NAM until the it brings the strong uvvs overhead. I'm telling you, it's going to snow, will it accumulate? idk, but I'm honestly starting to think it might happen lol ala the GFS, GFS brings some nice frontogenesis in the region, cant wait for soundings. Going to be a snow/slop fest imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Quite a thump in the beginning for ern PA on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 If a good deform band develops, someone is going to get a surprise. Good luck figuring out who right now. Somewhere Here's the NAM sounding at 60 for BLM... definitely potential there though verbatim, that's rain/snow at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bugalou Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 still?? Wouldn't have believed it. I am in southern jersey and many of the oaks have held on to their leaves despite Sandy here. While the winds knocked down a bunch, there are still a decent amount on the trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 GFS stalls it off the coast of NJ. Wind are cranking @925mb 60-75 knots.. Onshore flow by areas hit hardest by sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 GFS stalls it off the coast of NJ. Wind are cranking @925mb 60-75 knots.. Onshore flow by areas hit hardest by sandy. Brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Quite a thump in the beginning for ern PA on the GFS. PHL at 54... slop fest snow, but snow. Probably sticking pretty well in the immediate NW burbs w/ some elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 We are lucky on the GFS, frontogenesis thump, heavy wet snow & high winds, lol Need that deform zone to shift NE on the EURO & we could start believing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Hour 57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 By 60 its warming aloft so probably more sleet at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 yeah Ray, if this deform zone does form over us I think it would be a thump then over to sleet then drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 SV snow map has accumulation along and west of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Shafted again... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 highzenberg storm ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 highzenberg storm ftw Haha! GFS paints the exact picture we talked about this AM Not to be a d!ck to those DC folks, but we need a jog NE with the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Whoa, he actually put out a reasonable map Now we will get snow!....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Impressive energy on the GFS with the front end of this storm. would definitely support some sort of a deformation band. Still have to determine where though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 So...a safe bet for 1-2 slushy inches in the Reading/Berks/Lehigh Area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 can't wait to see the clown map with this run. alright euro, ball is in ur court now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 So...a safe bet for 1-2 slushy inches in the Reading/Berks/Lehigh Area? lol. There are no safe bets with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 All the people at my work rely on me for predictions...not sure what to say about this one...looks like sharp cutoff.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 can't wait to see the clown map with this run. alright euro, ball is in ur court now Also pretty interested in seeing what the GGEM has to say given what the 48 hour prog looked like on the RGEM. Really not liking the ACY stall/shimmy for the NJ shore on the GFS. Could that have been placed any worse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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