Heisy Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I haven't really seen euro snow output for Eastern Pa. But I've heard it's not much. How does DC show 6-9" while most of the cities at or slightly above sea level. The highest point of the city is 410 feet. But alot of the area in berks, Lehigh, and carbon counties are above 600 feet. This would be an elevation event no? EURO doesn't show much snow for us because of the orientation of the deform zone. It puts the heaviest precip over DC/BALT Check it out here..Once the low moves farther N it starts to lose its "juice". I personally think it will bomb out farther N to help us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 It's a nor'easter. The Euro adiabatically cools the column across DC because that's where the def band/frontogenesis/best UVVs set up. I think it is probably overdone, but stronger rates are more important than elevation in the Euro solution because it's a colder solution. Elevation matters more in the GFS, where it's not as a cold overall, and 600' isn't going to get it done if the GFS verifies. Thanks for the explanation. Makes sense!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I haven't really seen euro snow output for Eastern Pa. But I've heard it's not much. How does DC show 6-9" while most of the cities at or slightly above sea level. The highest point of the city is 410 feet. But alot of the area in berks, Lehigh, and carbon counties are above 600 feet. This would be an elevation event no? Just stating the cause, not whether I agree with the DC output or not, the Euro brings in warm air off the ocean into NJ & PA and DC stays longitudinally too far west and remains in the pivot/deformation zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Its because the euro bombs out early and makes its own cold air I'm the comma head, most likely that scenario is different on 127 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 EURO doesn't show much snow for us because of the orientation of the deform zone. It puts the heaviest precip over DC/BALT Check it out here..Once the low moves farther N it starts to lose its "juice". I personally think it will bomb out farther N to help us. Only thing in concerned about is wasn't the euro showing 10" of rain in the Lehigh valley for Sandy? We got what an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Only thing in concerned about is wasn't the euro showing 10" of rain in the Lehigh valley for Sandy? We got what an inch I can't say for certain, but given its track forecast and the heaviest pcpn being southwest of the center (nearly all models had that), I would think it wasn't the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Only thing in concerned about is wasn't the euro showing 10" of rain in the Lehigh valley for Sandy? We got what an inch It might have for a run or two a week out but it more often than not had heavier precipitation south of Philly once it got within 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 It might have for a run or two a week out but it more often than not had heavier precipitation south of Philly once it got within 5 days. Okay, but we can all agree it had overplayed qpf amounts. No model was showing an inch or less anywhere on the east coast. Most were 2-4"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 OT But an earthquake hit NJ early this morning. http://www.foxnews.com/us/2012/11/05/small-earthquake-rattles-nj-towns-in-wake-sandy/ There was an earthquake a few days before Sandy.. Hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Only thing in concerned about is wasn't the euro showing 10" of rain in the Lehigh valley for Sandy? We got what an inch Definitely wasn't the Euro. Euro showed 3-5" for the Lehigh Valley, and Lehigh County area got 3.25". Don't know about Northampton. That's a pretty good forecast. I think the northern solutions (GFS) likely showed more for the LV, but since I didn't believe its solution, I didn't look too closely at its precip map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Okay, but we can all agree it had overplayed qpf amounts. No model was showing an inch or less anywhere on the east coast. Most were 2-4"+ Not true. I recall the NYC forum screaming about the Euro sharp precip cutoff in that area to the tune of about an inch precip. I think they got close to that amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 OT But an earthquake hit NJ early this morning. http://www.foxnews.c...-in-wake-sandy/ There was an earthquake a few days before Sandy.. Hmmm Correlation is not causation. Completely unrelated. Not true. I recall the NYC forum screaming about the Euro sharp precip cutoff in that area to the tune of about an inch precip. I think they got close to that amount. Yeah, I don't remember exact details a week out, but by the time I did the radio show Thursday night (4 days before landfall), the synoptics were well forecasted and correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Okay, but we can all agree it had overplayed qpf amounts. No model was showing an inch or less anywhere on the east coast. Most were 2-4"+ Skill scores within 72 hours the Euro usually ranks either 1 or 2. This is a closer snapshot look that just includes our area and New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Euro was outputiting 4-6" rain for sandy in lehigh valley it had sharp gradient Damn I hate 3G Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Not true. I recall the NYC forum screaming about the Euro sharp precip cutoff in that area to the tune of about an inch precip. I think they got close to that amount. Ok I apologize, I tried digging to find the total rainfall at LV airport, came up blank. All I remember is NBC 10 and WFMZ saying we got less than 2" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 finally saw the weenie oz euro snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Euro was outputiting 4-6" rain for sandy in lehigh valley it had sharp gradient Damn I hate 3G I recall the 3-4" line and the 4-6" line bisecting the LV in a SE to NW manner, so that's why I say 3-5". In actuality, the main rain shield tended to be on a ESE to WNW track and supressed slightly, so that the areas further north and east in the LV got a significant dry slot. I know western areas of the valley met actual Mount Holly forecast amounts, which I also believe were 3-5". Doesn't really matter though. I thought from days out the Euro solution turned out fairly accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Well I'm curious to see the 12Z models today, but do like where I'm at here at KLNS, 436 ft elevation, know it's not a lot but it appears I may see some snow, guess it's wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 jb's map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Ok I apologize, I tried digging to find the total rainfall at LV airport, came up blank. All I remember is NBC 10 and WFMZ saying we got less than 2" lol No need to apologize. I can imagine the LV airport had less than 3". I was looking at wunderground amounts further west along Rt 100. Fairly uniform amounts over the 3 day period of about 3.25". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Fairly uniform amounts over the 3 day period of about 3.25". Yup. Measured 3.39" up here, so not only in the ballpark, but just about all standing on home plate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 No need to apologize. I can imagine the LV airport had less than 3". I was looking at wunderground amounts further west along Rt 100. Fairly uniform amounts over the 3 day period of about 3.25". It wasn't easy because of so many stations being down during the storm, but I found a station in Whitehall (probably a few miles from the airport) that shows 1.41" during the entire event, whereas ten miles away in the Lower Macungie area, they had 3.25". Huge difference across the valley, and the real takeaway is that this gradient was well forecasted by the Euro. As you can imagine, no model can pinpoint a ten mile wide gradient 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 jb's map Whoa, he actually put out a reasonable map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 It wasn't easy because of so many stations being down during the storm, but I found a station in Whitehall (probably a few miles from the airport) that shows 1.41" during the entire event, whereas ten miles away in the Lower Macungie area, they had 3.25". Huge difference across the valley, and the real takeaway is that this gradient was well forecasted by the Euro. As you can imagine, no model can pinpoint a ten mile wide gradient 4 days out. Yes I'm a little north of Whitehall. Just heard on the radio parts of jersey not expecting power till thanksgiving. That's awful. Hopefully this storm doesn't hamper any efforts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Whoa, he actually put out a reasonable map With only the Euro putting any precip at all back that far NW, how is it reasonable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Whoa, he actually put out a reasonable map My reaction too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 With only the Euro putting any precip at all back that far NW, how is it reasonable? Well, for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Well, for our area For Elko it is spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 NAM shows the potential of this storm. Thing is really deep & slow moving. Step towards EURO, I'm hoping they meet halfway to give us a snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 JB tweet "ECMWF idea is where I am here and it's been consistent and ugly. Heavy snows inland could knock out power from DC to NJ" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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