NaoPos Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 (Crickets) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Hello snowww. 0z gfs silenced the crickets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 GFS really amped up the backside energy (ala EURO), I know the map below is BS, but it could be snow under the heavy UVVs...who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 0z GFS means that the local mets around here will start talking about the potential for a decent 3-6 or 4-7" snowfall around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Hey we were there on the storm chase! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Philly thread is dead, 00z is 10x colder, can't tell if it gives us snow though, anyone want to chime in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 0z Euro continues it south trend with an 8-12" swath across Virginia into S PA. The heaviest snow axis is from RIC to DCA to MDT. Philly is on the gradient with western burbs getting 4-8" while Jersey sees a dusting. 0z GFS is not very snowy, despite what you guys were saying above. It does try to put a 8-12" bullseye over the Pinelands. Only axis of snow is from the Poconos to the Berkshires NW of NYC. 6z GFS is much snowier/colder than 0z. PHL is fringed, but the NYC metro gets the jackpot with an 8-12" axis in a quarter circle from New Brunswick to Stamford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 0z Euro continues it south trend with an 8-12" swath across Virginia into S PA. The heaviest snow axis is from RIC to DCA to MDT. Philly is on the gradient with western burbs getting 4-8" while Jersey sees a dusting. 0z GFS is not very snowy, despite what you guys were saying above. It does try to put a 8-12" bullseye over the Pinelands. Only axis of snow is from the Poconos to the Berkshires NW of NYC. 6z GFS is much snowier/colder than 0z. PHL is fringed, but the NYC metro gets the jackpot with an 8-12" axis in a quarter circle from New Brunswick to Stamford. Yeah even the non weenie snow algorithm I have for the Euro gives central PA >6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I just got in and need some coffee before I decide what I believe, but it's worth noting that the 0z Euro ensemble looks closer to past few versions of the Euro, but not today's 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Yeah even the non weenie snow algorithm I have for the Euro gives central PA >6". Yeah, I have the Earthsat maps (I assume you have WSI), which are way better than wunderground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Yeah, I have the Earthsat maps (I assume you have WSI), which are way better than wunderground. They are probably similar. The wunderground maps can be real weenie maps for sure. They'll give me snow with +5 850 temps...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 TBH, my gut here is to go with with GFS-style solutions with warmth and less snow, based solely on the SSTs and lack of good cold air source... BUT, the Euro has been locked in for days and even if it is over amplified right now, it's still kinda close to its ensemble mean. I really don't buy the snow all the way down to Richmond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 TBH, my gut here is to go with with GFS-style solutions with warmth and less snow, based solely on the SSTs and lack of good cold air source... BUT, the Euro has been locked in for days and even if it is over amplified right now, it's still kinda close to its ensemble mean. I really don't buy the snow all the way down to Richmond. just going off the 0z euro, the phl sounding is almost isothermal bout the boundry just looks a little to warm. Elevated area away from the city maybe 30 miles could do well if these cold solutions hold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 just going off the 0z euro, the phl sounding is almost isothermal bout the boundry just looks a little to warm. Elevated area away from the city maybe 30 miles could do well if these cold solutions hold Oh yeah, but that's contingent on the Euro being right with the cold air. Grab the 0z GFS sounding to see the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 ::Weenie-goggles::...EURO & GGEM tend to be over phased at this time range. If we were to take a GFS & EURO compromise we would have the low bombing a bit farther northeast which would allow the deformation zone shown on the EURO in DC to occur over us. I think it will be one of those situations similar to an April snowstorm where you really need heavy UVVS & precip to make it snow. At least we have something to look forward to on the 12z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 ::Weenie-goggles::...EURO & GGEM tend to be over phased at this time range. If we were to take a GFS & EURO compromise we would have the low bombing a bit farther northeast which would allow the deformation zone shown on the EURO in DC to occur over us. I think it will be one of those situations similar to an April snowstorm where you really need heavy UVVS & precip to make it snow. At least we have something to look forward to on the 12z suite. Outside of the wishcast of the def band right over us (), this is pretty good. I agree with a lot of what you're saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Not sure I buy it snowing that close to Philly. Can see Paul (chesco), Quakertown, Red Sky getting some snow since they have elevation on their side. Might be tough for those of us outside of the hills to see more than wet snowflakes mixing in. The mid PM start isn't doing the snow odds many favors....if this were coming in at night (or really early AM) I could be a bit more optimistic on it. Poconos look like they could get 3-6, iso higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Philly thread is dead, 00z is 10x colder, can't tell if it gives us snow though, anyone want to chime in? Dude, you posted at 5am. Not sure if there is accumulating snow overhead (Philly, immediate burbs) at this point, but you should be within driving distance if you are hurting that bad for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Outside of the wishcast of the def band right over us (), this is pretty good. I agree with a lot of what you're saying. Yea...I mean once you get into the city I'm not quite sure how much we can actually get to accumulate. I mean our 'sun angle' this time of the year is probably the same as late January which is good. However, the snow is going to likely have a large wet content so it would have to fall fast & furiously to accumulate in the city. I did study meteorology with "Rib" the moderator at California University of PA for 2 years before deciding to play poker for a living, I guess I have an amateur view on things haha. I am cautiously surprisingly optimistic with this one. What really has caught my eye is how much colder the models trended from 12z yesterday to 00z last night. That being said i really think we'll start to come to a compromise between the EURO & GFS by tonight. I'm not even being a weenie here when I say i think our area might get the highest precip amounts when all said in done. We kind of saw the model bias at this time range with the EURO. The EURO had Sandy heading into the delmarva (or even farther S) at this time range while the NAM/GFS were through L.I & SNE. Once we got to 48 hours they started to slowly converge over S-South/central NJ. I think we might see a similar compromise this time as well. I think the best part of this is the trend of cut-off lows near the benchmark, good sign for winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Outside of the wishcast of the def band right over us (), this is pretty good. I agree with a lot of what you're saying. That def band is going to be right over Tamaqua this time...book it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Dude, you posted at 5am. Not sure if there is accumulating snow overhead (Philly, immediate burbs) at this point, but you should be within driving distance if you are hurting that bad for snow. Haha, the time change screwed me up. I think we see a trend NE with the EURO & SW with the GFS to converge right over us. I'll be sitting fine and dandy here in NE Philly lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 That being said i really think we'll start to come to a compromise between the EURO & GFS by tonight. I'm not even being a weenie here when I say i think our area might get the highest precip amounts when all said in done. We kind of saw the model bias at this time range with the EURO. The EURO had Sandy heading into the delmarva (or even farther S) at this time range while the NAM/GFS were through L.I & SNE. Once we got to 48 hours they started to slowly converge over S-South/central NJ. I think we might see a similar compromise this time as well. I agree with this, and it certainly within the realm that the best rates end up directly over us. My forecast for the heaviest axis is farther west, MDT to AVP, but we're definitely talking about margin of error type stuff there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Oh yeah, but that's contingent on the Euro being right with the cold air. Grab the 0z GFS sounding to see the difference. i meant thats the sounding for the 0z gfs not euro...even if phl gets snow its gonna be that 35 non sticking shenanigan stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 i meant thats the sounding for the 0z gfs not euro...even if phl gets snow its gonna be that 35 non sticking shenanigan stuff. Gotcha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Yea...I mean once you get into the city I'm not quite sure how much we can actually get to accumulate. I mean our 'sun angle' this time of the year is probably the same as late January which is good. However, the snow is going to likely have a large wet content so it would have to fall fast & furiously to accumulate in the city. I did study meteorology with "Rib" the moderator at California University of PA for 2 years before deciding to play poker for a living, I guess I have an amateur view on things haha. I am cautiously surprisingly optimistic with this one. What really has caught my eye is how much colder the models trended from 12z yesterday to 00z last night. That being said i really think we'll start to come to a compromise between the EURO & GFS by tonight. I'm not even being a weenie here when I say i think our area might get the highest precip amounts when all said in done. We kind of saw the model bias at this time range with the EURO. The EURO had Sandy heading into the delmarva (or even farther S) at this time range while the NAM/GFS were through L.I & SNE. Once we got to 48 hours they started to slowly converge over S-South/central NJ. I think we might see a similar compromise this time as well. I think the best part of this is the trend of cut-off lows near the benchmark, good sign for winter Well stated. For all of the bouquet of flowers that were thrown the Euro's way with Sandy, it was not lost on us that some of its Delmarva solutions would have done to Delaware Bay/tidal Delaware what eventually sadly occurred in Raritan Bay. Its left of track bias looks intact. The Oct 1987 storm starts giving dynamic cooling too much praise when you really need moderate to heavy pcpn to fall consistently for this to occur. Best chance would be if there is a f-gen dump at the start as the initial air mass is progged to be quite dry. That can then marginalize the air mass to the point that the deformation band can do the deed ala last October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Well stated. For all of the bouquet of flowers that were thrown the Euro's way with Sandy, it was not lost on us that some of its Delmarva solutions would have done to Delaware Bay/tidal Delaware what eventually sadly occurred in Raritan Bay. Its left of track bias looks intact. The Oct 1987 storm starts giving dynamic cooling too much praise when you really need moderate to heavy pcpn to fall consistently for this to occur. Best chance would be if there is a f-gen dump at the start as the initial air mass is progged to be quite dry. That can then marginalize the air mass to the point that the deformation band can do the deed ala last October. Thanks! Yes pretty interesting. I actually enjoy tracking storms like this because they have a bigger element of surprise. Out of curiosity what are some of Philadelphia's highest recorded Nov snowfalls? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Thanks! Yes pretty interesting. I actually enjoy tracking storms like this because they have a bigger element of surprise. Out of curiosity what are some of Philadelphia's highest recorded Nov snowfalls? I'm off today, so don't have them in front of me. Monthly I do see 13.4 inches in 1898, 11.5 inches in 1938, 8.8 inches in 1953 and 4.6 inches in 1989. The one in 1953 was a single storm on November 6th and 7th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I haven't really seen euro snow output for Eastern Pa. But I've heard it's not much. How does DC show 6-9" while most of the cities at or slightly above sea level. The highest point of the city is 410 feet. But alot of the area in berks, Lehigh, and carbon counties are above 600 feet. This would be an elevation event no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I haven't really seen euro snow output for Eastern Pa. But I've heard it's not much. How does DC show 6-9" while most of the cities at or slightly above sea level. The highest point of the city is 410 feet. But alot of the area in berks, Lehigh, and carbon counties are above 600 feet. This would be an elevation event no? It's a nor'easter. The Euro adiabatically cools the column across DC because that's where the def band/frontogenesis/best UVVs set up. I think it is probably overdone, but stronger rates are more important than elevation in the Euro solution because it's a colder solution. Elevation matters more in the GFS, where it's not as a cold overall, and 600' isn't going to get it done if the GFS verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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