Isotherm Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I'm gonna be the one to say it... the GFS and NAM seem to have overdone the low level cold air. Maybe that's because they overdid the precip rate, not sure, but its definitely a smidge milder than I expected it to be right now. And a smidge makes all the difference at these temps. Reminds me of last February 11th... I'm more concerned about the hvy bands not making it back here. They've got temps down to 33F in Cape May county where the hvy pcpn has allowed them to wetbulb. Sitting at 35F with a non-accumulating wet snow in SE PA. I'm hoping the NAM's more right than the GFS precip wise... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Kinda surprised we've stayed mostly rain here in Conshy despite the 30-35 dbz returns over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Kinda surprised we've stayed mostly rain here in Conshy despite the 30-35 dbz returns over us. I'm over in Wayne and have had snow since the start, no change over whatsoever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I'm over in Wayne and have had snow since the start, no change over whatsoever. Same here in Bryn Mawr/Villanova. Went to flurries-light/mod snow fairly quickly at the onset. Still snowing but holding at 35 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I'm more concerned about the hvy bands not making it back here. They've got temps down to 33F in Cape May county where the hvy pcpn has allowed them to wetbulb. Sitting at 35F with a non-accumulating wet snow in SE PA. I'm hoping the NAM's more right than the GFS precip wise... Yeah that's the other issue. I think the eastward shift the GFS showed was real. In fact, to be honest I think the first sign was the fact that, at 12Z, several of the more westward models showed light precip already on PHL's doorstep, or already in progress, when in fact it was several more hours away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Yeah that's the other issue. I think the eastward shift the GFS showed was real. In fact, to be honest I think the first sign was the fact that, at 12Z, several of the more westward models showed light precip already on PHL's doorstep, or already in progress, when in fact it was several more hours away. Yeah. Looks like some solid 30 dbz bands near NE PHL / TTN now. Hopefully those continue to grow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Yeah that's the other issue. I think the eastward shift the GFS showed was real. In fact, to be honest I think the first sign was the fact that, at 12Z, several of the more westward models showed light precip already on PHL's doorstep, or already in progress, when in fact it was several more hours away. There is a bit of a western motion to the precip field, and a nice band setting up to head down to Delco and Philly in an hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Yeah. Looks like some solid 30 dbz bands near NE PHL / TTN now. Hopefully those continue to grow. Yeah that 30-40dbz stuff is what is required right now to drive temps down and start to get some sticking. Webcams show its really coming down around Trenton (really being a relative term), so it ought to start sticking soon there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 There is a bit of a western motion to the precip field, and a nice band setting up to head down to Delco and Philly in an hour or so. PHL proper is still in this game... but man, if you're out by ABE or RDG, you may be screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Kinda surprised we've stayed mostly rain here in Conshy despite the 30-35 dbz returns over us. i bet that is an elevation issue. Conshy is below 100 ft i believe. My house, which was under the same bands you were at 200ft saw sleet and some snow mix. My work up 500ft is all snow. So its gotta be a bl issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Yeah that 30-40dbz stuff is what is required right now to drive temps down and start to get some sticking. Webcams show its really coming down around Trenton (really being a relative term), so it ought to start sticking soon there. Yeah moderate snow falling here now. Huge flakes too. However not sticking yet. Strangely enough my wife is telling me it's starting to stick over in Monmouth County now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 i bet that is an elevation issue. Conshy is below 100 ft i believe. My house, which was under the same bands you were at 200ft saw sleet and some snow mix. My work up 500ft is all snow. So its gotta be a bl issue. Makes total sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 PHL proper is still in this game... but man, if you're out by ABE or RDG, you may be screwed. Agree with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 sun should be setting in 2hrs, lets see if that helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Agree with this. Are we honestly surprised here? :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Yeah that 30-40dbz stuff is what is required right now to drive temps down and start to get some sticking. Webcams show its really coming down around Trenton (really being a relative term), so it ought to start sticking soon there. yea im looking at the cameras around humleville and pendale on i95 big fat flakes falling. Right now im stuck in the bl from hell. I get waves of snow. It will snow, then stop for a min then a wave comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Yeah, Tom, the flakes are like half dollar size here right around the corner from that exit. Accumulating now on grassy surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 some heavy stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 18z NAM shifted east. Not pretty if you're more than 20 miles west of the DE River, basically what we've already said above. Hvy bands not going to make it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastBravest Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Rain drops just started Palmer Township, Pa just outside of Easton... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 WSW downgraded to Advisorys for 2-4: ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY... ...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND SLEET, WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. * ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO AS MUCH AS 4 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET. * TIMING...SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN AND SLEET AT TIMES. THERE COULD BE A BURST OF SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE SNOW MAY THEN MIX WITH SOME RAIN LATER TONIGHT. * IMPACTS...MOST OF THE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD TAKE PLACE ON NON- PAVED SURFACES. AS TEMPERATURES DROP BACK CLOSE TO FREEZING TONIGHT, THERE COULD BE SOME SLIPPERY SPOTS, ESPECIALLY ON SECONDARY ROADS, BRIDGES AND OTHER ELEVATED SURFACES. SNOW THAT TENDS TO STICK TO WEAKENED TREE LIMBS COULD FALL AND CAUSE SOME RENEWED POWER OUTAGES. * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE MILE AT TIMES. * TEMPERATURES...FALLING TO NEAR 32 DEGREES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Down here near the Atlantic City airport. Snowing very heavy right now. Snow is only sticking on cars and grassy areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I mentioned this a few days ago and it looks like it might even be turning out... but this reminds me, at least in the Philly metro area, of 4/9/1996. Everyone thought the higher totals would be NW of the city and they ended up being down near the Jersey shore. Everywhere else snow struggled to stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Just going by wunderground maps... I will take a quarter of what they show.. (monmouth county) hr 15-18= 2-3" hr 18-21 =2-3" hr 21-24=1-2" (some parts get 2-3") hr 24-27=1-2" hr 27-30=1-2" hr 30-33=1-2" hr 33-36=1" FWIW KBLM is about 20 miles SE, would be a little colder here.. Im not saying i agree with this Big to last night's euro.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 I had the right idea, but man did I bust hard on the western and southern parts of my map. But I also did verify my prediction that someone would see over a foot, so yay, I guess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 I had the right idea, but man did I bust hard on the western and southern parts of my map. But I also did verify my prediction that someone would see over a foot, so yay, I guess? thats why weather is so unpredictable. My question to people who had snow stick is whats gonna happen faster the snow melting or how fast it accumulated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 I had the right idea, but man did I bust hard on the western and southern parts of my map. But I also did verify my prediction that someone would see over a foot, so yay, I guess? 30-50 miles off on the location of the perfect set up needed for snow on 11/7. Pretty good if you ask me. Especially since you were advertising the big snow totals in some locales. The gradient on the west side was nothing short of stunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 That was a tough forecast with the model guidance changing. One take home pay attention to last minute model shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Forecast: Verification: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 That was a tough forecast with the model guidance changing. One take home pay attention to last minute model shifts. Yeah, this was a tough one. I would say one take home comment would be to pay more attention to the mesoscale features and radar trends. This was tending to show where the more focused banding was setting up. Interesting temperature obs this morning, as one can see where the snow accumulation occurred. Where little to no snow occurred, temperatures either held steady last night or even increased in many locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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