jrodd321 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Still think tombo and I make out really well here. Close enough to Philly to get in those heavy bands, but just far enough away where elevation will help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Starting to see a little more westward push in radar echoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Can we keep this non-banter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Starting to see a little more westward push in radar echoes YUP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Nice 300 mb map. Closed off to SW. Coupled jets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Those bands near the main band over NJ likely are CSI. That is a strong frontogenesis band in NJ and by definition, would create a favorable environment for CSI. Further east, those bands might actually be more closer to upright convection due to CI or convective instability. The dry slot will act to destabilize that band over the water south of LI, pulling into NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Should we even still be looking at models? New GFS doesn't push any heavy stuff into PA at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Should we even still be looking at models? New GFS doesn't push any heavy stuff into PA at all. I'd probably disregard it. Looking at WV imagery looks like its gonna be filling in within a couple hours points N + W into PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I'd probably disregard it. Looking at WV imagery looks like its gonna be filling in within a couple hours points N + W into PA. It may have the idea right of heaviest in NJ though. It was a noticeable shift east from 06z. It's possible it may be too dry for PHL, but we'll see soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 It was raining for about 5 min, now mixing with snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 It may have the idea right of heaviest in NJ though. It was a noticeable shift east from 06z. It's possible it may be too dry for PHL, but we'll see soon enough. If you get some serious banding over NJ, it's going to have a super sharp gradient. Obviously, can't change the forecast now, but the 12z GFS is plausible (as is the 12z NAM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Rather early surprise but this NJDOT camera shows snow sticking on route 40 north of Vineland already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 If you get some serious banding over NJ, it's going to have a super sharp gradient. Obviously, can't change the forecast now, but the 12z GFS is plausible (as is the 12z NAM). Yeah that subsidence exhaust zone will be huge on the west side of this, agreed. I love this stuff so I hope you don't mind me popping in. I enjoy talking about mesoscale aspects of winter storms and it sounds like you and Ray do as well...even if bendy season is done..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Yeah that subsidence exhaust zone will be huge on the west side of this, agreed. I love this stuff so I hope you don't mind me popping in. I enjoy talking about mesoscale aspects of winter storms and it sounds like you and Ray do as well...even if bendy season is done..lol. By all means, come on in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Yeah that subsidence exhaust zone will be huge on the west side of this, agreed. I love this stuff so I hope you don't mind me popping in. I enjoy talking about mesoscale aspects of winter storms and it sounds like you and Ray do as well...even if bendy season is done..lol. The more the merrier. I would be a bit worried if I was on the GFS/NAM gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 The more the merrier. I would be a bit worried if I was on the GFS/NAM gradient. This has been the story all along. It's gotta set up somewhere in eastern PA. Where is the fun part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Looks like a wall of snow heading toward NW Chesco (radar shows heavier stuff about 29 miles SE of here) will it be a case of similar snow amounts from east to west due to colder boundary layer west but less moisture? Could it be like the December 2000 event where the snow missed my spot by about 5 miles.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 The more the merrier. I would be a bit worried if I was on the GFS/NAM gradient. Lot's of clouds here... at least it looks like something is lurking in the distance. Radar is filling in to NW, Philly should see something soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 the last page is depressing to read.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Looks like a wall of snow heading toward NW Chesco (radar shows heavier stuff about 29 miles SE of here) will it be a case of similar snow amounts from east to west due to colder boundary layer west but less moisture? Could it be like the December 2000 event where the snow missed my spot by about 5 miles.... I was referencing December 26. 2010 earlier. Check out those gradients. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Some light snow has now started here in my part of Northeast philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 knocking on philly door Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Heard our own Mitchell Gaines on TWC. Good job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mgerb Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Those of you in NJ can monitor conditions from around 50 stations across the state from the NJ Storm Dashboard here: http://www.njstorm.org/ Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Don't blow my cover Well if you're mod'ing, perhaps u can take me off the 5 post ban....Its been like that for a couple years now. Not sure how i get that removed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Latest briefing package is out. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Would think that shift east is legit. Those echoes on the NJ coastline were progged to be near the DE valley as of last night. In comparing the GFS from 00z to 12z, the 00z is stronger with the parent s/w off the Delmarva and way closer to the coast. Sometimes these bombing lows with tons of convection have processes that screw around with features and cause a shift east like what is seemingly occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Would think that shift east is legit. Those echoes on the NJ coastline were progged to be near the DE valley as of last night. In comparing the GFS from 00z to 12z, the 00z is stronger with the parent s/w off the Delmarva and way closer to the coast. Sometimes these bombing lows with tons of convection have processes that screw around with features and cause a shift east like what is seemingly occurring. models east,west, east, west... i cant take it anymore... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 models east,west, east, west... i cant take it anymore... This was a no win forecasting scenario to the end... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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