Quakertown needs snow Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Current Wxsim module for NW Chesco has around 6" of snow accumulating in this area....see timing and forecast below. That said I am not that sure precip really makes it this far NW. Should not have mixing issues here but getting the moisture back could be the bigger issue - Current Obs - Cloudy Temp 32.9 Start time 10am Light Snow and 34.8 1pm - Heavy Snow (32.4) 4pm - Heavy Snow (31.5) 7pm - Mod Snow (31.2) 10pm-Mod Snow (31.7) 1am - Lt Snow (32.0) if this correct then i'm guessing schools will be letting out early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 dry slots hacking away at the battle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 The 6z GFS ens mean went a little drier on the western fringe FWIW. The 6z RGEM was a bit odd suddenly going much drier. RAP (I think old RUC) also has suddenly shifted east a bit on its last few runs (updates every hour). Kind of worry-some...THe radar looks a bit farther East than I had hoped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I'm still mostly dismissing it, since it's on its own, but given that we're in its window, you have to give it some credence. I don't even know what to do with it, tbh. I kinda liked the 6z GFS, personally. http://wxcaster.com/...3?STATIONID=DIX That map does look reasonable. It fits in with current public warnings pretty well (and your call from yesterday as well). The nam was pretty good at this very short range with the Big Ones in 09-10 iirc, so it does give pause a bit. I suppose if it's similar at 12z, and in line with obs, totals may need to be bumped up in certain areas. Should be an awesome commute out of the city later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 That map does look reasonable. It fits in with current public warnings pretty well (and your call from yesterday as well). The nam was pretty good at this very short range with the Big Ones in 09-10 iirc, so it does give pause a bit. I suppose if it's similar at 12z, and in line with obs, totals may need to be bumped up in certain areas. Should be an awesome commute out of the city later... Yea it comes down to the 12z NAM, I will say personally I'm concerned with some East trends I'm seeing on a few short term models. I think NAM will dial down (though i hope not ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 The whole thing should pivot more to the NW and W so we'll see how the trends go. That stationary band marks the edge of the best echoes and not much will get past it until the whole thing changes orientation a bit. Gun to head would favor best areas near and east of DE valley...maybe NJ especially, but that band in southern NJ may be a mesoscale band that builds towards Philly in a few hours. I wouldn't radar hallucinate quite yet as this storm will slow and get captured. This is when echoes will return west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 The latest set of guidance was definitely too aggressive with the speed of precip advancing NW into the area... most guidance had some light precip spreading into metro Del Val by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B Dawk 20 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 The latest set of guidance was definitely too aggressive with the speed of precip advancing NW into the area... most guidance had some light precip spreading into metro Del Val by now. That makes me feel better. Still I will probably be leaving work early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Models are OK on low location. Key is slow west of north motion to allow precip to pivot west. Faster N motion would shift impact N+E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Nom nom nom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 . Look at all that energy diving into the TN Valley. You can already see the low off the coast feeling the tug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 The whole thing should pivot more to the NW and W so we'll see how the trends go. That stationary band marks the edge of the best echoes and not much will get past it until the whole thing changes orientation a bit. Gun to head would favor best areas near and east of DE valley...maybe NJ especially, but that band in southern NJ may be a mesoscale band that builds towards Philly in a few hours. I wouldn't radar hallucinate quite yet as this storm will slow and get captured. This is when echoes will return west. Seriously? This is starting already? 00z GFS at 12z just starting showing the better UVV moving into S. Jersey. Sort of matches up with the radar now. It's not til between 15z-18z does that stuff expand into eastern PA and northern Jersey. Patience people. If the radar doesn't look juicier by lunchtime, then start worrying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html wv loop looks good. you can see the clouds tops firing up around the cetner ol LP in the atlantic and the energy diving down in TN river valley that will evetually capture this. LP placement looks about spot on with the latest GFS and NAM runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Wish I was home right now instead of at work. Looks like a nice band right over my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 http://www.goes.noaa...LOOPS/ecwv.html wv loop looks good. you can see the clouds tops firing up around the cetner ol LP in the atlantic and the energy diving down in TN river valley that will evetually capture this. LP placement looks about spot on with the latest GFS and NAM runs. Last few frames there it looks like it just got captured and is starting a NNW track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 12z NAM.....ever so slowly creeps the best UVV westward into eastern PA later this afternoon (Obvisouly, Jersey gets into the good stuff first). Here is 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 not a bad looking little storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Yea Parsley 12z NAM limits the western extent of the precip but still a lot more snow in philly than any other model still some lift going on @ 15 hours over the area. I would take this 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Seriously? This is starting already? 00z GFS at 12z just starting showing the better UVV moving into S. Jersey. Sort of matches up with the radar now. It's not til between 15z-18z does that stuff expand into eastern PA and northern Jersey. Patience people. If the radar doesn't look juicier by lunchtime, then start worrying Ha I remember when people started calling bust 2 years ago before the snow bomb ended up dumping 12-18 inches in a 6 hour period. You can't use the word patience and snow in the same thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Yea Parsley 12z NAM limits the western extent of the precip but still a lot more snow in philly than any other model still some lift going on @ 15 hours over the area. I would take this 100% The cutoff will be dramatic, reminds me of Dec 26th, 2010 (with less over moisture). I remember driving back from western PA for Christmas, there was a dusting as for west as Lancaster, PA.....then several inches in the Delaware Valley with even more in interior NJ. Looks like the drastic cutoff setting itself up across SE PA (Rt 476 or Rt 100?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 CSI... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Ha I remember when people started calling bust 2 years ago before the snow bomb ended up dumping 12-18 inches in a 6 hour period. You can't use the word patience and snow in the same thought. Yup. Might be best for some people to not look at any radars til after lunch........and reaccess things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 The cutoff will be dramatic, reminds me of Dec 26th, 2010 (with less over moisture). I remember driving back from western PA for Christmas, there was a dusting as for west as Lancaster, PA.....then several inches in the Delaware Valley with even more in interior NJ. Looks like the drastic cutoff setting itself up across SE PA (Rt 476 or Rt 100?) This. I drove back at midnight from Lancaster to Philly and once I got off Rt. 30 and onto Rt. 202 the roads got interesting quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 omg. Stop with the radar hallucination nonsense. We're better than this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Per weather.com this is officialy Winter Storm Athena Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 NAM hammers NJ +PHL. Tight gradient back here in Chesco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 ACY reporting snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 ACY reporting snow. Dew points dropping in S NJ+De as winds turn north. Liking S NJ for jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 ALERT: famartin and NJHurricane have been activated as local Storm Mode mods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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