green tube Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 No, I think I'll leave 1-4 for now, leaning towards the 4 though. Its an early season event, temps are warm (for snow, that is). Ratios will be low, some precip will get completely wasted on melting. Last October when the temp was in the 33-34 range, ratios were pathetic, 2:1. Don't think it'll be quite THAT bad, but still not good. good. thanks. 3" of concrete would be fantastic considering the date. and quite astonishing to have such early snows on back to back years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Its funny, 2 years ago I would've been very impressed at these prospects. Then last year happened. I'm not so impressed anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Its funny, 2 years ago I would've been very impressed at these prospects. Then last year happened. I'm not so impressed anymore i feel like we've seen it all in the last 4 years.... and we just keep adding to it. back to back super-early snowfalls would be pretty stunning.... with a hurricane stuck in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 6z nam http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=175498 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 06z NAM clown map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Winter Storm Warnings out for I-95. Calling 3-5 at the NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Storm Total Map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 ^ re the NWS saying 3-5 in their warning product and zones, then saying 4-6 there. Which is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Radar looks very impressive already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Not that the model is that good but i found it a bit odd that the 6z RGEM went way drier for our area. Its the type of model that changes pretty drastically run to run though. The 6z NAM was drool worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 The HPC bumped totals up for the Philly area. Now there is a 10-40% chance of seeing 8 or more inches, and a 40-70% chance of seeing 4 or more inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Not that the model is that good but i found it a bit odd that the 6z RGEM went way drier for our area. Its the type of model that changes pretty drastically run to run though. The 6z NAM was drool worthy. Could you post the 6z rgem? How much pcpn does it show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Well enjoy this, looks like a nice hit for the DE valley and just east into most of NJ. Should be some good mesoscale banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Well enjoy this, looks like a nice hit for the DE valley and just east into most of NJ. Should be some good mesoscale banding. We are totally nude... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Modest upward adjustment in my forecast... 2-6" back in Ewing today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Modest upward adjustment in my forecast... 2-6" back in Ewing today. lol 2-6, might as well say 0-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 lol 2-6, might as well say 0-6 Not at all. That means I'm confident that at least 2" will fall and think its within the realistic realm of up to 6". So there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I really hope this is not our biggest storm of the winter...ughh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Modest upward adjustment in my forecast... 2-6" back in Ewing today. oo henry.... :-) haha. my call was 3-5", so thanks to nws for copying my totals, i like your style :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Raining at Dover, Millville and Atlantic City. Dew points are pretty high at Dover and AC so unlikely they will see much snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Raining at Dover, Millville and Atlantic City. Dew points are pretty high at Dover and AC so unlikely they will see much snow. Snow/sleet mix just started here at the Gloucester/Atlantic County line. 36/26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Current wet bulb temperatures. Looks good away from coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Snow/sleet mix just started here at the Gloucester/Atlantic County line. 36/26 Nice, good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THEREALTOR1 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Raining at Dover, Millville and Atlantic City. Dew points are pretty high at Dover and AC so unlikely they will see much snow. I let the dogs out at 6:30 and the back deck was already wet and it was raining light/moderate. My guess would be the rainfall started around 6'ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Comparing NAM sim radar & actual radar I think we can expect that strong echos east of Jersey and South of L.I to start rotating into our area. It does look a bit tad East of what I expected the radar to look like, but I'm pretty happy when comparing the NAM Sim vs actual, looks pretty accurate so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Current Wxsim module for NW Chesco has around 6" of snow accumulating in this area....see timing and forecast below. That said I am not that sure precip really makes it this far NW. Should not have mixing issues here but getting the moisture back could be the bigger issue - Current Obs - Cloudy Temp 32.9 Start time 10am Light Snow and 34.8 1pm - Heavy Snow (32.4) 4pm - Heavy Snow (31.5) 7pm - Mod Snow (31.2) 10pm-Mod Snow (31.7) 1am - Lt Snow (32.0) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 do we discount the ~foot of snow that the 6z nam shows? halve it? if it is overdone, is it just the typical beast mode for the nam? with the nws calling for 3-5, and nbc generally 2-4, this is way outside the public expectation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 do we discount the ~foot of snow that the 6z nam shows? halve it? if it is overdone, is it just the typical beast mode for the nam? with the nws calling for 3-5, and nbc generally 2-4, this is way outside the public expectation... I'm still mostly dismissing it, since it's on its own, but given that we're in its window, you have to give it some credence. I don't even know what to do with it, tbh. I kinda liked the 6z GFS, personally. http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=DIX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B Dawk 20 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 The changeover and heavy precip seems to be a bit faster in the latest model runs, if I'm reading them correctly? I shouldn't have driven in to work today. This is going to be a fun commute back from Allentown to Plymouth Meeting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 when i looked at the radar, i found it interesting how far west into MD the precip is reaching, not sure it really means anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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