Sunny and Warm Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 A Facebook search nws mount holly will get you there. Our website is down due to issues at Eastern region HQ on Long Island. Hopefully it will be back up soon. We do our best to post all briefing packages to FB and twitter. Thanks. I didn't realize the HQ was on LI. I honestly thought it was in MD for some reason, and was wondering how a comm link could be down so long. I guess having important comm links along a coastline isn't the best idea in the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Lets not **** this thread up with posts like this, we've got a real danger coming next week down here, and I'd appreciate it if things stayed civilized and on topic. Not complaining that no one gives the NAM love well outside of its wheelhouse, and you mad bruh. We had one of the best subforums during Sandy, the knowledge I got from here was beyond fantastic, and I'd like to keep it that way. I've been in Point Pleasant Beach for the last 24 hours relieving crews here, and there's a real chance these same areas will be inundated again come Wed. There's no dunes or beach left to stop it from happening again. I thought that guy was 5 posted... We squashed it, relax. Back to topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 reposting some info over here as well: Truthfully, and if this chart is accurate, then nor'easters do not produce the same surge as tropical systems. This is a surge chart for RI, but likely holds for NYC/LI/Jersey as well. What I'm thinking is that this next storm will have a 2-3 foot surge, but will be largely mitigated by the tide cycle. That isn't to say that no additional erosion or flooding won't occur, but IMHO, only the most precarious beaches see impacts from this nor'easter due to SURGE. Winds are another matter entirely, and I could certainly see the greatest impact being some additional wind damage in conjunction with a stoppage in line repairs due to high winds. At least that's how I see this storm shaping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Has the pacific disturbance gotten into a better data ingestion area making the models more accurate possibly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Pete. I use this forum mostly as it does seem to correlate better to our area than the Central PA forum. Also, for me anyway, I am just 5 miles from Mt Holly's CWA.. I am 5 miles from Mt Holly and 5 miles from State College.. (BGM forecasts for me) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthNJwx Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 reposting some info over here as well: Truthfully, and if this chart is accurate, then nor'easters do not produce the same surge as tropical systems. This is a surge chart for RI, but likely holds for NYC/LI/Jersey as well. What I'm thinking is that this next storm will have a 2-3 foot surge, but will be largely mitigated by the tide cycle. That isn't to say that no additional erosion or flooding won't occur, but IMHO, only the most precarious beaches see impacts from this nor'easter due to SURGE. Winds are another matter entirely, and I could certainly see the greatest impact being some additional wind damage in conjunction with a stoppage in line repairs due to high winds. At least that's how I see this storm shaping up. Great find! It's encouraging that the top surges on that list are tropical, at least. There is the small contribution of pressure on surge - I forget how much it is exactly, but I think the super low pressure of a strong tropical system can tack on 1-2 feet of surge in addition to the wind- and wave-generated surge. Sandy making landfall in NJ - even as a post tropical system - with a MSLP in the 940s definitely contributed to the surge heights, whether marginally or more significantly. Also, I think tropical systems usually produce larger waves over the ocean (especially with a massive system like Sandy), and those powerful swells contribute to surges. Nor'easters can have tremendous swells and fetches - see 1962 - but I think tropical systems usually generate more powerful waves in general. Thankfully, astronomical high tides will be near their lowest in the current cycle on Wednesday. And, thankfully, the duration of onshore winds looks to be fairly short. The wind direction also appears to be more NNE than NE or ENE, though most of coastal NJ saw NNE winds during Sandy to no help. I'm hoping a shift to a wind with a westerly component will be quick, and then strong NW winds could help by maybe even getting us to blowout tide status. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Thanks. I didn't realize the HQ was on LI. I honestly thought it was in MD for some reason, and was wondering how a comm link could be down so long. I guess having important comm links along a coastline isn't the best idea in the world. You're probably thinking about national HQ, which are in MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 looks like a few inches of snow for ABE and MPO as per the 00z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 looks like a few inches of snow for ABE and MPO as per the 00z GFS Yeah, looks like more precip up near NYC this run. Really hope coastal areas are spared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 0Z GFS shifted east of 18Z, but west of 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 any update on 0z euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 any update on 0z euro? This will help: LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... CHANGES MADE TO THE BUSINESS PART OF THE LONG TERM WERE SUBTLE. THEY REFLECT A VERY MINOR SLOWING DOWN OF THE SYSTEM FROM CONTINUITY. IF WE TOOK THE NAM SERIOUSLY WITH ITS LATEST RUN, WE WOULD BE RATHER PLEASED WITH THE PROSPECT OF ONLY A 1002 MB LOW ABOUT 250 MILES OFF VIRGINIA BEACH AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. IT IS QUITE THE ODD MAN OUT WITH THIS SOLUTION. OF THE NOR`EASTER TRACKS OF THE FOUR REMAINING MAJOR MODELS, ALL ARE WITHIN ABOUT 75 MILES OF EACH OTHER REGARDING DISTANCE FROM OUR COASTLINE DURING PASSAGE (FOR THIS RUN, OF COURSE). THE GFS IS THE FASTEST AND THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST. WE TOOK A FAIRLY CLOSE LOOK AT THE GFS (THE FASTEST MODEL) OVER ITS 03/12Z, 03/18Z AND 04/00Z RUNS AND THE ECMWF (THE SLOWEST MODEL) OVER ITS 03/00Z, 03/12Z AND 04/00Z RUNS. THE GFS HAS BEEN DOING A DRUNKARD`S WALK TOWARD WHAT WE CAN HOPE IS THE RIGHT SOLUTION. IT SHIFTED MODESTLY WEST FROM 03/12Z TO 03/18Z, AND THEN IT SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY EAST FROM 03/18Z TO 04/00Z. REGARDING ITS SPEED, IT IS SLOWER IN ITS 04/00Z APPROACH AND FASTER IN ITS 04/00Z ESCAPE FROM THE WATERS OFF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS. THE 04/00Z ECMWF IS SUBTLY FURTHER EAST IN ITS APPROACH, AND THEN IT LIES WITHIN THE RELATIVELY NARROW RANGE OF ITS TWO PREVIOUS RUNS. THE SAME IS TRUE FOR ITS TIMING IF YOU SUBSTITUTE "SUBTLY SLOWER" (THAT`S NOT A MIDNIGHT SHIFT MISTAKE) FOR "SUBTLY FURTHER EAST." THE 04/00Z CANADIAN TRACK LIES WITHIN THE RANGE ESTABLISHED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF, FAVORING THE FASTER GFS IN ITS APPROACH AND THEN FAVORING THE ECMWF. IT IS, HOPEFULLY, AN OUTLIER REGARDING THE DEPTH OF THE LOW. IT DEEPENS IT TO 964 MB WHILE OFF NEW JERSEY. WHEN WE PLOT THE MEAN TRACKS FROM THE LAST THREE RUNS OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF, WE FIND THAT THE 00Z UKMET IS A VERY CLOSE APPROXIMATION. IT WOULD PUT THE SYSTEM ABOUT 75 MILES OFF HAT AT 12Z WEDNESDAY, ABOUT 175 MILES OFF WAL AT 00Z THURSDAY, ABOUT 100 MILES OFF ACY AT 12Z THURSDAY, AND NEAR MVY AT 00Z FRIDAY. DISCARDING THE CENTRAL PRESSURES OF THE CANADIAN AND THE NAM, WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT ABOUT A 980 MB LOW OFF OUR COAST. THEREFORE, USING THE UKMET TIMING AND TRACK AS A BASIS, WE MADE SOME SUBTLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WE ARE VERY MUCH AWARE THAT TOO MUCH RELIANCE ON WHAT WE ARE SEEING NOW COULD LEAD US TO HARM RATHER THAN IMPROVE THE FORECAST, WHICH IS WHY WE MAINTAIN A GOOD DEAL OF CONTINUITY THIS FAR OUT WHILE NUDGING THINGS IN THE INDICATED WAY. THE STACKED LOW IS GOING TO BE PUSHING AGAINST A STUBBORN AND STACKED HIGH TO THE NORTH (ALMOST A REX BLOCK ORIENTATION). THIS WOULD TEND TO FAVOR A SLOWER SOLUTION, BUT IT ALSO FAVORS A STRONG GRADIENT THAT KEEPS STRONG WINDS IN PLAY. THAT IN TURN KEEPS TIDAL FLOODING IN PLAY, EVEN THOUGH WE NEED ALMOST TWO FEET TO START MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AND ALMOST THREE FEET TO TRIGGER A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WOULD FAVOR COASTAL REGIONS, BUT SOME SNOW STILL IS A REAL POSSIBILITY NORTHWEST GIVEN THE PRESENT TRACK. THE THINGS THAT MAY NOT FAVOR A LOT OF SNOW ARE THE TIME OF YEAR, THE TEMPERATURE OF THE OCEAN WATERS AND THE FACT THAT THE HIGH TO THE NORTH IS NOT THAT COLD. HIGH PRESSURE PRECEDES AND FOLLOWS THIS EVENT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW NORMAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 DT's unofficial first whatever... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 He makes his colors too damn light. You can't make out the areas he thinks are mostly snow. (fixed in PS so folks can see it) Regardless, it'll be interesting to see the final outcome of this one. I just wish the shore points wouldn't have to go through another round of potential coastal flooding so soon after Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Some JB thoughts this AM "The strong 5k winds over the coastal areas and increased vertical stacking means that we will be seeing winds to storm force on the coast from Del North and I expect to see hurricane gusts over the water.In fact there are ensemble members of the ECMWF that are showing 10 meter wind speeds in excess of 75 kts working their way north. How does that happen? The model sees the kind of deepening.. to 965 mb, the Canadian has. Right now I feel this hits 972 between Wed and Thur night. For those smirking, please remember I did the work to forecast the deepening of Sandy north of 35 north to its lowest level... 940 mb as verified by Aircraft and then actually listed by NHC in the advisory. At 57 years old I dont need to hype weather it can do the job on its own Heavy snows are pegged with this mainly west of the big cities though I think there will be a change over all the way into the cities and perhaps to the coast. The GFS of course, being a big further east is more bullish on big city snow. The problem would be even greater with the GFS. How so? The area I have tagged for heavy snow as seen below is west of the GFS, and in areas where leaves are off trees more, so power outages would be less. The GFS dumps heavy snow with high winds in area where there is more foliage and that would make the problems that are going to occur worse. The wind still causes the misery to people on the coast, and the unprotected barrier islands still take a beating. but the heavy snows are a bigger problem with this idea, remember a couple of inches of wet snow with strong winds with leaves on trees, some weakened already by Sandy is a big problem" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 thanks for the updates. please keep them coming since we still are without power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 thanks for the updates. please keep them coming since we still are without power. If GFS is correct no snow for anyone...Really warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 979 just SE of the benchmark. Hmmmm.... By the way highzenberg, best avatar on the forum! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/12zf090.html 8 of 12 gfs individual members take this 981 or lower, with about 7 of them being sub 980. pretty strong signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 More prolonged abuse for the coast on the Euro. As for debating of rain/snow.......3-4 days out, in early November it's not worth the bickering (that I see elsewhere).. Is there a chance? Sure it snowed last October...........will it happen? Who knows and who knows where if it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 The 12z euro ensemble mean continues to be colder and slightly more east then op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Interesting, models trending colder...yet both mount holly and upton go warmer....pushin for plain rain. And all the bashing of yesterday's 12z NAM at 84 hour...yet now most models are now trending towards the further offshore solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Close your eyes. Just let it happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 GFS deeper / more QPF at 42...could be an interesting run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Interesting, models trending colder...yet both mount holly and upton go warmer....pushin for plain rain. And all the bashing of yesterday's 12z NAM at 84 hour...yet now most models are now trending towards the further offshore solution. Then I suppose you are all bullish on the 18z nam solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 18z GFS big trend towards EURO in terms of path & strength, still not nearly as cold though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Then I suppose you are all bullish on the 18z nam solution. Taken with a grain of salt, when hpc says it's been initializing a tad east the last couple runs. But a model like the NAM, that's had good accuracy for years should always be taken into account...84 hours or not. 4-5 years ago ? yeah, it was pretty pathetic past 48 hours..not lately though. And wow...is 18z GFS track looking reminiscent of Sandy or what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 18z GfS 925mb winds showing 60-75knots along the I-95 corridor for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Taken with a grain of salt, when hpc says it's been initializing a tad east the last couple runs. But a model like the NAM, that's had good accuracy for years should always be taken into account...84 hours or not. 4-5 years ago ? yeah, it was pretty pathetic past 48 hours..not lately though. And wow...is 18z GFS track looking reminiscent of Sandy or what. The reason why the nam is problematic outside of 48hrs is because of the type of the model it is. Tony or adam can correct me but i think the nam is a hydrostatic model. But it focuses on very detailed observations when its ran. Unlike the globals which are static models i believe, they smooth it out moreso. Thats why you will see huge changes with the nam unlike the globals. The nam focuses on mesoscale stuff so you change something a tiny bit and it can affect the rest of the run greatly. Thats why outside of 2 days, things change so much and you get wild runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 http://raleighwx.ame...rs/18zf084.html 7 of 12 18z gfs ens individuals show sub 980 with 1 being 960's, and 4 are low to mid 980's.... very strong signal for a DEEP system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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