tombo82685 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 no surprise, gfs not as wet as nam through 24 the further north you get. sepa still around .5-.75" qpf.. even through 21z tomorrow, bl stays close to 32 close to i95. its warmer in the mid levels, but by the time the 850s pass pretty much most of the precip is done and it switches over to some lgt sleet or slizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Our subforum continues to sit in the (supposed) sweet spot. Can't ask for a better set up for early November, even if there is a changeover towards the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Not sure what causes the warm intrusion overnight Thursday, precip moves out faster; mabye less evaporational cooling available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Not sure what causes the warm intrusion overnight Thursday, precip moves out faster; mabye less evaporational cooling available. the position of the low. If the low was to move due ne and out it would be different. But it sits for a little and then moves more east than north. The constant wind off the ocean in the mid levels warm it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 The GFS is solid. I'd go 3-6 on grass for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 the position of the low. If the low was to move due ne and out it would be different. But it sits for a little and then moves more east than north. The constant wind off the ocean in the mid levels warm it. I was thinking winds would be out of the NW but those winds were also transported from the ocean and your point still stands. Seems like a very marginal situation but a good bonus considering the time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I still like 1-4 back home, even though it might be 4. I'd rather not go higher til I see a really good reason to. Haven't seen it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I still like 1-4 back home, even though it might be 4. I'd rather not go higher til I see a really good reason to. Haven't seen it yet. My call is rain in TTN, dusting/flurries at my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I hope this isn't considered banter, rather perspective....Models aside, if you live in SE PA and receive more than a coating from an early November Nor'easter you should count yourself fortunate to be among the select few that have experienced such an occurance in the last 100+ yrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Rather Impressive run from the spc wrf tonight. will have to see what the NMM says since it only goes out 36 hours but it does have a few rather heavy bands note worthy. one is for south jersey and DE and then another is a heavy band for North jersey that starts to rotate south. all in all would be 3-6 perhaps 4-8 for some on the spc wrf. temps though right around 32 Sim radar http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/00/nmmwrf.refc_animate_1h.html Total QPF http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/00/today_36h_total.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 nice run for SEPA and eastern pa, and inland SNJ .5" for the mountains in NE PA... could be a decent 3-5" snowfall now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 HPC probabilities 1 inch 2 inches 4 inches 6 inches 8 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 euro looks colder and farther east, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 it holds serve. 850 line never touches NJ.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 How's the surface? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Euro goes bonkers here in central monmouth county.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Euro goes bonkers here in central monmouth county.. Map? Amounts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Map? Amounts? you heard him.... it goes bonkers. why would you want maps or amounts when you have bonkers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 you heard him.... it goes bonkers. why would you want maps or amounts when you have bonkers? ha ha ha Bonkers to some could mean squat in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 you heard him.... it goes bonkers. why would you want maps or amounts when you have bonkers? Wasn't bonkers a candy of some kind back in the day? I'll take some! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 EC has 0.86" at TTN and 1.17" at BLM. Surface temps are a bit warm especially at BLM. Should probably cut your ratios to 5:1 there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 EC has 0.86" at TTN and 1.17" at BLM. Surface temps are a bit warm especially at BLM. Should probably cut your ratios to 5:1 there. Thanks Ray! and the mods can feel free to delete those other posts of mine. ha ha ha I'm off to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 If I had my super secret mod powers I'd have to chastise you for taking this OT... then again, I'd have to chastise me too. But we're not in storm mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 If I had my super secret mod powers I'd have to chastise you for taking this OT... then again, I'd have to chastise me too. But we're not in storm mode. ha ha I just cleaned it up a bit myself anyway. Gonna be busy in here tomorrow. Good night all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 EC has 0.86" at TTN and 1.17" at BLM. Surface temps are a bit warm especially at BLM. Should probably cut your ratios to 5:1 there. thanks for the info. are you going to tweak your call at ttn based on the almighty euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 If I had my super secret mod powers I'd have to chastise you for taking this OT... then again, I'd have to chastise me too. But we're not in storm mode. What does the ECM have for ABE? Thank you in advance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 What does the ECM have for ABE? Thank you in advance! 0.52". Most of it should not be far below 10:1 ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 any guesses on the next time we'll have a hurricane and a snowstorm within 10 days of each other? i'm going with 309 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 thanks for the info. are you going to tweak your call at ttn based on the almighty euro? No, I think I'll leave 1-4 for now, leaning towards the 4 though. Its an early season event, temps are warm (for snow, that is). Ratios will be low, some precip will get completely wasted on melting. Last October when the temp was in the 33-34 range, ratios were pathetic, 2:1. Don't think it'll be quite THAT bad, but still not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 ha ha ha Bonkers to some could mean squat in reality. Just going by wunderground maps... I will take a quarter of what they show.. (monmouth county) hr 15-18= 2-3" hr 18-21 =2-3" hr 21-24=1-2" (some parts get 2-3") hr 24-27=1-2" hr 27-30=1-2" hr 30-33=1-2" hr 33-36=1" FWIW KBLM is about 20 miles SE, would be a little colder here.. Im not saying i agree with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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