Sunny and Warm Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Yup, snow weenies need to hope the NAM is over aggressive with things, could be the case. Lets see what the GFS/Euro have to say. I think the NAM can back off some, as I would be surprised if the low actually hit Jersey. That's unusual, and the synoptics don't scream that solution. Will be interested in the thermal profiles it produces in this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Nam looks whacked with two lows off the coast. Looks like there could be some errors maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Some high res models coming in west as well..... Just another solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Yup, snow weenies need to hope the NAM is over aggressive with things, could be the case. Lets see what the GFS/Euro have to say. Depends on where said snow weenies live... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iverson3 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 http://liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=9554&topicid=11538&Itemid=179 from Mike DeFino, talking about feedback error causing the low to come so far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Forecast Hours: 0hr 6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr 30hr 36hr 42hr 48hr 54hr Sfc Prs(mb): 1005.6 1003.2 1000.0 997.5 993.6 990.7 993.1 995.5 998.9 1000.8 Mean SLP (mb): 1020.6 1018.4 1015.2 1012.6 1008.7 1005.8 1008.2 1010.5 1013.8 1015.9 2m agl Tmp (F): 32.1 30.4 30.9 33.2 31.2 31.8 32.6 37.9 36.7 30.6 2m agl Dewpt(F): 22.5 22.2 20.7 28.6 29.4 29.8 30.7 34.6 35.9 29.3 2m agl RH (%): 67 71 65 83 93 92 93 88 97 95 10m agl Dir: 106 27 32 359 2 4 10 3 354 331 10m agl Spd(kt): 1 7 12 13 24 24 21 16 12 10 6hr Precip (in): 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.40 0.08 0.04 0.03 0.05 0.00 .ABE - 6.2" of snow followed by .10" of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Depends on where said snow weenies live... most of this subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Its November 7th (or it will be when it happens). If you get an inch of snow, be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Its November 7th (or it will be when it happens). If you get an inch of snow, be happy. banter. banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Forecast Hours: 0hr 6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr 30hr 36hr 42hr 48hr 54hr Sfc Prs(mb): 1005.6 1003.2 1000.0 997.5 993.6 990.7 993.1 995.5 998.9 1000.8 Mean SLP (mb): 1020.6 1018.4 1015.2 1012.6 1008.7 1005.8 1008.2 1010.5 1013.8 1015.9 2m agl Tmp (F): 32.1 30.4 30.9 33.2 31.2 31.8 32.6 37.9 36.7 30.6 2m agl Dewpt(F): 22.5 22.2 20.7 28.6 29.4 29.8 30.7 34.6 35.9 29.3 2m agl RH (%): 67 71 65 83 93 92 93 88 97 95 10m agl Dir: 106 27 32 359 2 4 10 3 354 331 10m agl Spd(kt): 1 7 12 13 24 24 21 16 12 10 6hr Precip (in): 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.40 0.08 0.04 0.03 0.05 0.00 .ABE - 6.2" of snow followed by .10" of rain If the NAM were correct, those surface temps past 24 hours would be meaningless for snow as upper levels are warm. At most you'd be looking at 0.5" liquid as snow, and with ratios at less than 10:1, you'd be looking at 3-4" max I would think. IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 If you do get snow, take a picture, bc it will be gone as fast as it fell from the sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Its November 7th (or it will be when it happens). If you get an inch of snow, be happy. This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 This I don't see anyone whining, just discussing the intrusion of warm air aloft on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 If the NAM were correct, those surface temps past 24 hours would be meaningless for snow as upper levels are warm. At most you'd be looking at 0.5" liquid as snow, and with ratios at less than 10:1, you'd be looking at 3-4" max I would think. IMHO. So upper level is warm.. Sleet and/or ZR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 So upper level is warm.. Sleet and/or ZR? it would be sleet. phl doesnt even change over to rain till maybe the very end. They get a front end thump of 3-5 hrs, then sleet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 looks pocs may still get 1-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 RGEM doesnt follow the 00z NAM...Pretty big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 it would be sleet. phl doesnt even change over to rain till maybe the very end. They get a front end thump of 3-5 hrs, then sleet.. Yeah, looks like THUMP->sleet->light rain/drizzle at the end.....regionwide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 RGEM doesnt follow the 00z NAM...Pretty big hit It's hard to say because it's just one panel. After hour 24, the NAM actually takes the low WNW into the coast. I'd like to see what the RGEM does after 24. Do you have that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Already some virga starting to works its way up the Delmarva if it can get in here earlier maybe some nice EVAP cooling in the am hours. Then maybe some onset overrunning precip from it or whatever you ant to call it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 It's hard to say because it's just one panel. After hour 24, the NAM actually takes the low WNW into the coast. I'd like to see what the RGEM does after 24. Do you have that? http://www.weatherof...ast/513_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Does anyone have snowfall maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Does anyone have snowfall maps? this is off the nam not using 10-1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 gfs out to 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 gfs is pretty much spot on so far, might be a hair sw of 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 through 12, def colder than the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Looks like the coastal low cut off at 500 and the low over Wisconsin also cut off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 no surprise, gfs not as wet as nam through 24 the further north you get. sepa still around .5-.75" qpf.. even through 21z tomorrow, bl stays close to 32 close to i95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
njrealtor84 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd NAM had initialization errors. Placed Sfc low pressure about 60 nm w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 nice run for SEPA and eastern pa, and inland SNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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