anthonyweather Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 What is TWC's RPM model? Jim Cantore was all excited showing how the EURO and GFS has 3-6 for all of eastern pa, then he showed his forecast of 1-3", then showed the RPM and it only brushes the area, giving the coast any precip.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 What is TWC's RPM model? Jim Cantore was all excited showing how the EURO and GFS has 3-6 for all of eastern pa, then he showed his forecast of 1-3", then showed the RPM and it only brushes the area, giving the coast any precip.. It's the in house WSI model. It's meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 It's the in house WSI model. It's meh. Oh, interesting that every thing he showed clashed against eachother haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 here is the crayola map from the 18z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 pretty solid agreement on these 12 gefs indiv on total precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 gfs shows good vv's in the snow growth region. Per gfs, it would have better ratios and better shot of accumulating than the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 This is false for the Earl Barker clown maps was referring to sv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Mentioned this earlier, but i think it warrants another post... I think the timing of the storm is bad for commuters. GFS/NAM say it gets into the metro area around I'd say 10am. It will start out as some light snow/rain mix that won't stick but QUICKLY go over to snow. The SIM radar on the NAM shows how the heavy precip is going to be coming in like a wall. So everyone will be at work before it starts to really snow & accumulate. Unlike some other winter storms I think this one comes in fast and furious. This storms snow potential hasn't been hyped on the news until a little tonight so I think a lot of people will just go to work normally. I think there will be decent accumulations even on the roads by afternoon for sure. Sometimes the wet start makes things even slippier on the roads than just pure snow. I remember Feb 5 2001 in Philly it went from rain to snow and accumulated fast. Kids were stranded at schools & stuff. I think its safe to say Philly should be under the CCB with the best UVVs so once it starts accumulating I think it will continue until maybe some sleet towards the end. During most winter storms there's usually a 48 hour buildup & EVERYONE knows there's going to be snow. This one was a bit more challenging with the wild model changes that I don't think everyone will be aware of it. I mentioned snow on my facebook yesterday & got laughed at by some lol. I truly think the Evening rush hour could be brutal in Philly if the 18z trend of colder & more precip continues. Remember the weekend rule, most of our big snowstorms happened during the weekend. This is the middle of the week too, doesn't help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Mentioned this earlier, but i think it warrants another post... I think the timing of the storm is bad for commuters. GFS/NAM say it gets into the metro area around I'd say 10am. It will start out as some light snow/rain mix that won't stick but QUICKLY go over to snow. The SIM radar on the NAM shows how the heavy precip is going to be coming in like a wall. So everyone will be at work before it starts to really snow & accumulate. Unlike some other winter storms I think this one comes in fast and furious. This storms snow potential hasn't been hyped on the news until a little tonight so I think a lot of people will just go to work normally. I think there will be decent accumulations even on the roads by afternoon for sure. Sometimes the wet start makes things even slippier on the roads than just pure snow. I remember Feb 5 2001 in Philly it went from rain to snow and accumulated fast. Kids were stranded at schools & stuff. I think its safe to say Philly should be under the CCB with the best UVVs so once it starts accumulating I think it will continue until maybe some sleet towards the end. During most winter storms there's usually a 48 hour buildup & EVERYONE knows there's going to be snow. This one was a bit more challenging with the wild model changes that I don't think everyone will be aware of it. I mentioned snow on my facebook yesterday & got laughed at by some lol. I truly think the Evening rush hour could be brutal in Philly if the 18z trend of colder & more precip continues. Remember the weekend rule, most of our big snowstorms happened during the weekend. This is the middle of the week too, doesn't help. Dry air, its gonna be a killer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 It's the in house WSI model. It's meh. Yeah it has its moments. Like every mesoscale model, just gotta know when to hold and know when to fold 'em. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Dry air, its gonna be a killer. I dont know, Don't the models factor this in? The NAM SIM radar just shows a wall of 30-35 DBZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I dont know, Don't the models factor this in? The NAM SIM radar just shows a wall of 30-35 DBZ. I'm pretty sure they dont. The past couple years I got my hopes up alot, thinking that it was moisten up quick, when it took hours upon hours and left us with just a few hours of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 15z sref probability means for snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I'm pretty sure they dont. The past couple years I got my hopes up alot, thinking that it was moisten up quick, when it took hours upon hours and left us with just a few hours of precip. Dry air, its gonna be a killer. yes it eats precip up but you need the dry air. What major snowstorm didn't start off with dry air? Its vital because it helps wetbulb the temperature down. Also its shows their is a deep layer of cold air. If the precip starts right away, it shows the cold air is not dense at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Winds starting to ramp up offshore. Wave height 6'. Water a toasty 59F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Dry air, its gonna be a killer. It might be. Down to 24 here already...kinda unexpected. If 0z starts backing out more S and E , we'll know for sure. Anybody know if hurricane hunter data will be injested for 0z ? (didn't look at when their flyin in) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Down to 32 here in freehold, the immediate coast is still in the low to mid 40's.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 0z nam looks like its coming in further west compared to 18z at hr 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 hr 18 is sexy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 0z nam looks like its coming in further west compared to 18z at hr 18. Yup. Throws moisture back into the susquehanna valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 For Philly looks like a thump for 6-8 hrs then over to sleet, thought I expect NAM to shift back NE @ 6z. It tends to do these nudges back and forth at this range. I'd expect GFS to look about the same as 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 For Philly looks like a thump for 6-8 hrs then over to sleet, thought I expect NAM to shift back NE @ 6z. It tends to do these nudges back and forth at this range. I'd expect GFS to look about the same as 18z I'm not so sure. The NAM can be a trend setter within 24 hours, and it has the support of some of the other short range models. The 00z NAM actually appears to come so far west that it sits on the Jersey coast. NYC is toast for snow after the initial thump, and unfortunately, this would be a worse case scenario for the coastline/winds/flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Ed Hanna upped LV from 1-3 to 3-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 For Philly looks like a thump for 6-8 hrs then over to sleet, thought I expect NAM to shift back NE @ 6z. It tends to do these nudges back and forth at this range. I'd expect GFS to look about the same as 18z phl switches over between hr 21-24, then its a sleet fest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 highzenberg, is the NAM all snow for ABE? that .75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I'm not so sure. The NAM can be a trend setter within 24 hours, and it has the support of some of the other short range models. The 00z NAM actually appears to come so far west that it sits on the Jersey coast. NYC is toast for snow after the initial thump, and unfortunately, this would be a worse case scenario for the coastline/winds/flooding. Yup. All of a sudden too much moisture and influx of warm air aloft brings worries to the snow weenies. Better hope the initial thump is a.....thump! Still a great snow threat for the area. Can't complain at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I'm not so sure. The NAM can be a trend setter within 24 hours, and it has the support of some of the other short range models. The 00z NAM actually appears to come so far west that it sits on the Jersey coast. NYC is toast for snow after the initial thump, and unfortunately, this would be a worse case scenario for the coastline/winds/flooding. it can, very true... the 21z sref is a good bit further east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I just point and click the skew-t @ twisterdata...I think NAM did its famous wacky solution right before it goes back to GFS/EURO solution...We'll see though. This would not be an ideal track for snow in Philly thats for sure, 700mb/850mb low gets too close to the area. 500 closes up too quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Yup. All of a sudden too much moisture and influx of warm air aloft brings worries to the snow weenies. Better hope the initial thump is a.....thump! Still a great snow threat for the area. Can't complain at all. Yeah, IF the NAM were to verify, the waa would overwhelm the region after the initial dump. Even the LV cannot remain snow when the low is on the coast even in mid-winter, let alone early November. GFS will be telling. If it moves toward the NAM, then to me this is a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Yeah, IF the NAM were to verify, the waa would overwhelm the region after the initial dump. Even the LV cannot remain snow when the low is on the coast even in mid-winter, let alone early November. GFS will be telling. If it moves toward the NAM, then to me this is a trend, especially considering the 21z SREF and 21z ARW are strongly in the NAM camp. Yup, snow weenies need to hope the NAM is over aggressive with things, could be the case. Lets see what the GFS/Euro have to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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