Ellinwood Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I think it accounts for it because verbatim the GFS drops close to an inch of QPF, factor in some melting & sleet at the end and seems about right. Depends on how much of that QPF the GFS actually qualifies as falling as snow. Most model sites will just output the standard 10:1 ratio because, as far as I know, the GFS just uses a binary yes/no for snow QPF water equivalent and doesn't calculate a ratio. It would be up to the programmers of each individual site to add in a calculation for ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I think it accounts for it because verbatim the GFS drops close to an inch of QPF, factor in some melting & sleet at the end and seems about right. Yeah that was my thinking; in that case, game on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 this is a sounding you rarely see for phl in early nov Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 How does Hurricane Schwartz concentrate on his job with Sheena Parveen working next to him...I envy him & pity him LOL... I asked earlier, does this storm have a chance to beak the all-time Nov snowfall for 24hrs in Philly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 glenn's forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 this map might beat the crayola weenie maps...looks like a foot bullseye on the glou/salem co area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I think it accounts for it because verbatim the GFS drops close to an inch of QPF, factor in some melting & sleet at the end and seems about right. No..they are 10:1 on what falls as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 glenn's forecast That's how I would draw it but would add some iso higher totals...solid map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 This was mentioned in the NYC thread... but I think how cold it was today has a lot to do with these forecasts evolving into snow. The cold wasn't supposed to be this persistent, its definitely noticeably colder now back there than it was expected to be several days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 How does Hurricane Schwartz concentrate on his job with Sheena Parveen working next to him...I envy him & pity him LOL... I asked earlier, does this storm have a chance to beak the all-time Nov snowfall for 24hrs in Philly? http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/37634-117-noreaster-thread/page__st__700#entry1850525 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 This was mentioned in the NYC thread... but I think how cold it was today has a lot to do with these forecasts evolving into snow. The cold wasn't supposed to be this persistent, its definitely noticeably colder now back there than it was expected to be several days ago. you still locked in for your 8-12 loli's to 16? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Pretty crazy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 some nice VV's on the nam, though above the prime region for good snow growth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Down to 36 degrees, projected low 35 http://climate.rutgers.edu/njwxnet/mapviewer.php?m=temperature&t=cur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Top 5 November Snowstorms in Chester County (don't think any of these will be approached with this one) 1) 11/15/1906 - 9.5" 2) 11/6/1953 - 8.6" 3) 11/26/1938 - 7.0" 4) 11/4/1910 - 6.6" 5) 11/15/1908 - 6.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Top 5 November Snowstorms in Chester County (don't think any of these will be approached with this one) 1) 11/15/1906 - 9.5" 2) 11/6/1953 - 8.6" 3) 11/26/1938 - 7.0" 4) 11/4/1910 - 6.6" 5) 11/15/1908 - 6.3" Chesco, what is the highest for Philly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Top 5 November Snowstorms in Chester County (don't think any of these will be approached with this one) 1) 11/15/1906 - 9.5" 2) 11/6/1953 - 8.6" 3) 11/26/1938 - 7.0" 4) 11/4/1910 - 6.6" 5) 11/15/1908 - 6.3" Wondering what was reported for the 1987 Veterans Day storm and the 1989 Thxgvg Eve storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 That's how I would draw it but would add some iso higher totals...solid map. That's a great starting point for sure. I challenge it to snow more than 4" under 500'. Not saying it can't happen, but why start any higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Does that account for lower snow ratios or is that for 10-1? Clown maps have variable, derived ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 No..they are 10:1 on what falls as snow. This is false for the Earl Barker clown maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Chesco, what is the highest for Philly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 http://www.americanw...00#entry1850525 Woops TY! I missed it somehow. One thing is for sure whatever snow does fall will probably be gone pretty quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 This was mentioned in the NYC thread... but I think how cold it was today has a lot to do with these forecasts evolving into snow. The cold wasn't supposed to be this persistent, its definitely noticeably colder now back there than it was expected to be several days ago. I was wondering the same...had a high of 44 today, currently 33, forecast low of 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I have just a brief question/ concern about the combination of wind and snow. We are looking at a high wind warning along our coast with about 50% of the leaves on the larger mature trees, especially oak. If the wind stays N or NNW during the height of the storm, then I believe even we would eventually go over to snow. I doubt it would take more than a half inch of heavy wet snow to bring down limbs and trees with warning level winds. The ground is still very soft from 8"+ rains last week and the morning rains will not help. Just a concerned fire captain here, thanks all for the great reads! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 regardless of the area, if places get 3 inches or more of snow and you have leaves on the trees branches will come down. In areas where the leaves are gone, the white pines will get hammered with a heavy paste job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Clown maps have various methods, the 10:1 are less circus like, but still can be off. This should be a neat storm for you guys. Somebody will cash in near the DE river give or take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 the 18z gefs are wetter than the op. brings the 1.25 contour almost to philly. with 1-1.25 to the west chester to new hope area, then .75-1 lns-abe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Well, the thing about high winds is that it actually tends to decrease the overall accumulation of snow on trees. The prettiest snows are where it just snows and sits, the snow just keeps building up. With significant wind, the snow tends to blow off. Ratios will also make a big difference as far as how much it takes to bring down branches... A relatively high ratio snow (10:1 or 12:1) will require many more inches than a low ratio 3:1 or 5:1. And yes, those low ratios are what may happen tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 HPC discussion - sounds like it does not reflect 18z MID ATLANTIC... THE 12Z GUIDANCE NUDGED BACK WEST TOWARDS THE COAST...BUT INDIVIDUAL MODELS OFFERED A VARIETY OF SOLNS OF QPF AND THERMAL FIELDS. TENDED TO PUT MOST WEIGHT INTO A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF...ALTHOUGH ASSUMED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE SLIGHTLY UNDER 990 MB BASED ON DISCUSSIONS WITH HPC MODEL DIAGNOSTICS. THE PROBABILISTIC MAPS CLEARLY DEPICTED A STRIPE OF SLIGHT RISK OF 4 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS NJ AND SE PA...AND FELT THAT WAS ADEQUATE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS WERE NOT TERRIBLY FAVORABLE FOR SNOW UNTIL THE AFTER 07/21Z IN THIS AREA. NORMALLY WOULD HAVE THOUGHT THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR 4 INCHES WOULD BE LIMITED BY THE SHORT DURATION BUT THIS AREA IS IN THE FAVORED DEFORMATION ZONE AND HAS MAXIMUM OF VERTICAL VELOCITIES IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION IN A FEW OF THE MODELS...SO DID NOT FEEL A SLIGHT RISK OF 4 INCHES WAS UNREASONABLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 It's one of those things where you know mesoscale banding will hook someone up in a narrow area, but if you are not under that band, it will be tough to accumulate. 15-20 DBZs won't cut it. would make sense and be ......intelligent to mention that in the advisory i would think . why not mention 1-2 inches with higher spots where meso scale banding sets up "which is difficult to pin down" ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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