Mitchell Gaines Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Hang in there our products are still coming out. As for the snow map expect this to be updated soon below. http://www.erh.noaa..../stormtotal.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 http://www.hpc.ncep....psnow_gt_04.gif Thanks for that, it wasn't updated when I was there. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 What is Philadelphia's all-time Nov snow event? 11.8 over 4 days - 11/24-27 1938, not sure if multiple events or not??? 9.2 - 11/26-27 1898 8.8 - 11/6-7 1953 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Hang in there our products are still coming out. As for the snow map expect this to be updated soon below. http://www.erh.noaa..../stormtotal.php thank you. We're a pesky bunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 18z RGEM shows significant precip, with roughly .4 inch liquid 12-24 hours and roughly an inch 24-36 hours for Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 New event. Winter Weather Advisory from 11/7/2012 6:00 AM to 11/8/2012 6:00 AM EST for Philadelphia County. More information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 672 WWUS41 KPHI 062110 WSWPHI URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 410 PM EST TUE NOV 6 2012 DEZ001-MDZ008-012-NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015>019-PAZ054-055- 060>062-067>071-070515- /O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0004.121107T1100Z-121108T1100Z/ NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET- MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN- NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON- CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN... NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE... NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO... CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...JIM THORPE... STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON... WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA 410 PM EST TUE NOV 6 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW SLEET AND RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES TOTAL NORTH AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA BUT GENERALLY LESS THAN 1 INCH SOUTH AND EAST. * TIMING...LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOULD BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING... SPREADING SOUTH TO NORTH. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME HEAVIEST LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. THE RAIN AND SNOW MAY MIX WITH SOME SLEET AT THAT TIME. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF. AN OCCASIONAL LIGHT WINTRY MIX MAY CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. * IMPACTS...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ON WEDNESDAY SO ANY DAYTIME ACCUMULATION WILL BE MOSTLY LIMITED TO GRASSY AREAS. AS TEMPERATURES COOL BACK TOWARD FREEZING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME ACCUMULATION ON ROAD SURFACES. TREATED ROADWAYS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY ICE FREE. * WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE 30S...BUT WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE 20S. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Seems a little conservative... best to start that way, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 per nam soundings, phl switches over to sleet somewhere in the hr 33-36 time frame. Before that over an inch of qpf falls as snow, maybe some rain to beging that quickly goes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Man 18z RGEM continues the 18z NAM trend, wow this is getting interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Seems a little conservative... best to start that way, I guess. It's one of those things where you know mesoscale banding will hook someone up in a narrow area, but if you are not under that band, it will be tough to accumulate. 15-20 DBZs won't cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Seems a little conservative... best to start that way, I guess. it makes sense for a starting point. You will lose some of that precip to melting. Also, you are banking on that deform band to go nuts for dynamic cooling. It could be a case to put that out then upgrade or downgrade as the storm is in progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 6abc going for 1-3" philly area and 3"+ for the poconos area... still waiting on Glenn's forecast but preliminary talk seems to indicate a likewise conservative approach. though the nbc10 simulated radar had little precip beyond philly... not even much beyond central jersey. but that graphic is a bit rough as we know. we have alot of the wintry stuff falling in the afternoon, warmish ground, plus kind of a short storm (tapers off before midnight)... conservative makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 wonder if ay over running precip* (snow or not) earlier than progged.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 per nam soundings, phl switches over to sleet somewhere in the hr 33-36 time frame. Before that over an inch of qpf falls as snow, maybe some rain to beging that quickly goes over. Looking at bufkit, it looks like hours 30-36 could go either way. Warm pocket starts at around 875mb by hour 30 and works its way up to around 775 mb by 36. IMO hours 30-32 look more ehhh than hours 33-35...Also, whatever falls between 36 and 39 is going to be sleet/rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 you can see the ccb on the 18z gfs from dc to southern nh and vt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 gfs is cold... .75-1" all snow verbatim into extreme sepa 33hrs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 pretty well defined coc on from the hi-res 18z nam... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 vista snow map has a 4-8 blob for all of se pa and eastern pa northern del and about 25 miles into jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 nice little pimple of 6-8 over se pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 vista snow map has a 4-8 blob for all of se pa and eastern pa northern del and about 25 miles into jersey yeah, I'm looking on raleigh's site and it appears the 8" jackpot zone is right over philly metro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 vista snow map has a 4-8 blob for all of se pa and eastern pa northern del and about 25 miles into jersey Does that account for lower snow ratios or is that for 10-1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 i do like how cold its been the days leading up to this. hasnt had the temp in the 60's... so ground isnt as warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 There's a little norlun type feature showing up on the models. It might set up across N DE S NJ towards end of storm. You can see it on most of the models. Anyways the GFS trend to a wetter solution is pretty sweet. It also looks plenty cold. I hope I wake up to Winter Storm Warnings tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Good model agreement now. GFS is a little wetter than 12z in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Does that account for lower snow ratios or is that for 10-1? I think it accounts for it because verbatim the GFS drops close to an inch of QPF, factor in some melting & sleet at the end and seems about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 There's a little norlun type feature showing up on the models. It might set up across N DE S NJ towards end of storm. You can see it on most of the models. Anyways the GFS trend to a wetter solution is pretty sweet. It also looks plenty cold. I hope I wake up to Winter Storm Warnings tomorrow I just updated our Operations lead and told her that if these trends continue, people will be waking up to WSWs tomorrow...Going to be a tricky day commuting. People scrambling to get their kids and whatnot...<knocks wood> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Does that account for lower snow ratios or is that for 10-1? i honestly don't know, i would assume its standard 10-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Presumably further South and East has mixing issues? Just need it a little bit colder... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Presumably further South and East has mixing issues? Just need it a little bit colder... on the nam soundings, you may lose a little in the beginning to mixing or what not but you are like philly pretty much all snow between hr 33-36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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