johnc Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Well, when he first posted it he said it was the EC Speaking of the Euro... did the 12z come out already and I missed it? Or will I be forced to dig through the NYC forum...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Kind of hard to nail down a 4-8" spot, IMO. I'm not really expecting a solid band of 4-8" reports so much as spotty 4-8" totals somewhere in eastern PA and/or western NJ, depending on the final track. I debated on having a 4-8" contour on my own map but decided there's too much uncertainty still for a proper placement. Someone will spike a foot out of this. Just not sure who. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Speaking of the Euro... did the 12z come out already and I missed it? Or will I be forced to dig through the NYC forum...? 12z GFS = 12z Euro, basically. They're both very similar to yesterday's 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 12z GFS = 12z Euro, basically. They're both very similar to yesterday's 12z runs. Ok great, thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 12z GFS = 12z Euro, basically. They're both very similar to yesterday's 12z runs. What struck me as odd about the 12z GFS is it brought the freezing line further down into southern NJ (for 00z Thursday no less), making it cooler than the Euro for that area. Not sure if I should interpret that as right or wrong at this point, but it's an interesting footnote to compare with future runs to see how much the cooler surface temps penetrate to the south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 What struck me as odd about the 12z GFS is it brought the freezing line further down into southern NJ (for 00z Thursday no less), making it cooler than the Euro for that area. Not sure if I should interpret that as right or wrong at this point, but it's an interesting footnote to compare with future runs to see how much the cooler surface temps penetrate to the south and east. That had to be dynamic cooling, right? That was also coincidental with the highest snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 When should we expect a statement or advisories from Mt Holly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 That had to be dynamic cooling, right? That was also coincidental with the highest snowfall. I'm thinking that was a good part of it, but the GFS also brings the freezing line down to the MD/PA border where I-83 crosses and attaches it all, and I'm less confident in dynamic cooling being responsible in dragging the freezing line down that much in the lower precip rate areas. Just so everyone can see what I'm talking about: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 When should we expect a statement or advisories from Mt Holly? Ha, I just pondered on this in the banter thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I'm thinking that was a good part of it, but the GFS also brings the freezing line down to the MD/PA border where I-83 crosses and attaches it all, and I'm less confident in dynamic cooling being responsible in dragging the freezing line down that much in the lower precip rate areas. You're right, I thought you were talking about S Jersey. That Central PA solution is closer to the Euro solution. I noticed that as it was coming in. Thermal profiles between the two models are much closer today than yesterday. Ambient airmass to the north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Euro goes crazy over monmouth county between hr27-30, im pretty sure that will not happen lol (according to wunderground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Adam I put it as the euro thinking it was from the euro as right after the euro came out you put up the snowfall forecast maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Adam I put it as the euro thinking it was from the euro as right after the euro came out you put up the snowfall forecast maps. Sorry. I'm good at assimilating data and making forecasts quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 15z SREF is just a touch west of 9z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Sorry. I'm good at assimilating data and making forecasts quickly. Hope I didn't cause any confusion or problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 When should we expect a statement or advisories from Mt Holly? Our normal products will be updated in about a hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I think the 18z nam is bout to do somethig stupid... Hr21, light precip into snj... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The GFS and Euro have both edged colder up here in the lower levels and not necessarily having to do with storm placement, they're having a good idea on the cold and wetbulb potential as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 You're right, I thought you were talking about S Jersey. That Central PA solution is closer to the Euro solution. I noticed that as it was coming in. Thermal profiles between the two models are much closer today than yesterday. Ambient airmass to the north? I threw southern NJ in there because it seems the GFS might be bringing some of that cooler air in to aid the dynamic cooling in getting the surface to/below freezing. Looking at the MOS temperature error maps, it looks like the GFS and NAM were too warm for NC and just a hair over up this way. Not sure how much if any of that error will propagate north as time goes on. What I do like is the models are finally coming around to the cooler surface temps for the main event as they normally do when we're about this far out from the event, with the GFS being a bit more aggressive than the Euro. I think 32F in southern NJ for early evening might be pushing it a bit as far as cooling goes, but you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 If 18z is all snow (its way colder than 12z) it would BURY Philly & most of NJ. Mets you want to chime in...The models show precip really moving in like a wall. Meaning it could go from light to very heavy quickly (look at 18z NAM sim radar). It hits right before rush hour & it could make rush hour an absolute MESS if it verifies. Does that concern any of you on your forecasts? JEEZ 18z NAM really sits the deform over us for extended period, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Whew, look at the NAM... jeez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I think the 18z nam is bout to do somethig stupid... Hr21, light precip into snj... Stupid...epic...splitting hairs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Nam brings close to an inch of QPF Into e pa FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I think the 18z nam is bout to do somethig stupid... Hr21, light precip into snj... You are some sorcerer. But seriously that looks like the Feb storm from 2 years ago. Just bombs out. Of course 18z nam precip totals are going to be a little high but still fun to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 NAM colder. Low retrogrades between 30+36 - looks like a good dump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Stupid...epic...splitting hairs. And this is why you don't forecast models, folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Nam brings close to an inch of QPF Into e pa FTW Verbatim it actually shows 1.5-1.75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Our normal products will be updated in about a hour. Hello? When did you start at Mount Holly? I don't believe I know you. Welcome to that area if recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Verbatim it actually shows 1.5-1.75 wow, all frozen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 By stupid I meant to imply qpf bomb* sorry for any confusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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