Heisy Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 GGEM absolutely buries Philly, starts off as a mix then quickly goes to heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 And this is why people shouldn't model hug; this was obviously a very close situation, not sure why everyone jumped ship at 0z. With such a sharp cutoff in QPF I don't think we'll be able to nail down an accurate forecast till 0z tonight. A 20 mile shift could mean all the difference... Its what people do lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 NWS hoppin aboard the wintry mess for LV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 We've been mentioning the snow scenario for 6 days now. No wishy washy back and forth stuff like the other guys. Will only be posting Obs occasionally from now on here....no time for games. The NAM ended up being the right scenario....as all the models trended towards it, and now the models are compromising back a bit, as is typical as we get closer to the storm. I rest my case. The NAM was OTS all day yesterday, and today it shows a rain storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 12z GEFS http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep12036.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 12z GEFS http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12036.gif Pretty impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Pretty impressive The GFS might have a few more miles west to go still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The surface temperatures on the 12z GFS are frigid. Complete night and day from yesterday. Gets philly down below 32 degrees for the backside of the storm. Snow all the way to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 some nice VV's on the gfs with that banding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 That's impressive on the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 some nice VV's on the gfs with that banding Delaware county , PHL , Gloucster NJ, Cumberland NJ special there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 ray told me he made his decision for snow amts..hes going 8-12 along i 95 lolipops to 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 ray told me he made his decision for snow amts..hes going 8-12 along i 95 lolipops to 16 are you serious?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 12z NMM has quite the bomb of a low to the east of DE stalling out with wide spread moisture over spreading the area hard to make out the pressure due to a tight gradient but it looks to be in the low to mid 970s more then Likely overdone on the low. As for qpf it does have some moderate bands if rain snow mix coming though the I95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 ray told me he made his decision for snow amts..hes going 8-12 along i 95 lolipops to 16 lol only in dreams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 are you serious?? Actually that's a little underdone. He told me lollipops to 18, but who's counting at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 henry m. told me he made his decision for snow amts..hes going 8-12 along i 95 lolipops to 16 fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 henry m. rev. 15b Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Of all the stupid nuances over the East Coast with this low, the Philly/NJ area has been relatively easiest to deal with so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 fixed Ray, Henry M, JB, what's the difference? They all have had association with Accuweather ... don't ban me Ray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 henry m. rev. 15b Actually not that unreasonable. Still surprised there's no 12"+ bullseye over State College. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The NAM ended up being the right scenario....as all the models trended towards it, and now the models are compromising back a bit, as is typical as we get closer to the storm. I rest my case. This is stopping now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 This is stopping now. Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Actually not that unreasonable. Still surprised there's no 12"+ bullseye over State College. A bit conservative for sure, should have rest of Delmarva in mix zone as well as portions of NYC and Coastal NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Latest Wxsim module forecast and timing for NW Chester County PA Light Snow arrives tomorrow by 10am temp 33.6 Mod Snow at 1pm (33.7) Heavy Snow at 4pm (32.3) Mod Snow 7pm (32.3) Lt Snow 10pm (32.6) Thurs AM off and on light snow till 4am Mod Snow 4am (32.6) Total snowfall 3" to 5" Of note the Wxsim will usually be too high on temps during snowfall - I would expect temps will be just below freezing during most of the heavier precip Will post some of the November snowfalls for Chesco since 1894 later today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Our forecast briefing package is out. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf I am passing along some of your information I see on the board here to the forecasters. So thanks for posting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 12z Euro is a PHL jackpot. New map coming shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Temps look very cold and 500mb looks orientated perfectly for Philly, excited to see precip amounts, wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 New map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 From about Belmar to York,and the lower 5 SE pa counties, .5-.75"..more SE .75" line starts about 10 miles into Nj towards SJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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