Jmister Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Precip trends from the NAM's 00z - 06z - 12z runs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 FWIW. RGEM much further west than 0z. (Sorry for the teaser--can't post Map at the moment.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 http://forums.accuwe...=post&id=175238 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Would like to mention that the only model that has been consistently west is TWC's RPM....pretty much stayed the same yesterday even though all models went east. Despite not being able to see SLP forecasts by that model (from weather underground), you can tell where the surface low is by the wind forecasts and it has been inside the benchmark on every single run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 GFS is certainly colder than the NAM at first glance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 good luck with this forecast promets! this may be the most difficult forecast of the year. the entire kitchen sink is on the table with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 12z GFS right on top of 6z, but colder. Delaware Valley jackpot again. 8" PHL, 4" ABE, 10" MIV, 3" BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 12z RGEM & GFS look like solid snowstorms for Philly, If I lived in NW fringe I'd be concerned for sharp cutoff. The kicker is not going to let precip build too far west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 12z RGEM Perfect for us. (I accidentally posted in Mid-Atlantic thread) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 12z RGEM & GFS look like solid snowstorms for Philly, If I lived in NW fringe I'd be concerned for sharp cutoff. The kicker is not going to let precip build too far west The area just east of Philly may get hit pretty darn good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The area just east of Philly may get hit pretty darn good. Margin of error, imo. It could be just west of Philly or just northeast of Philly or... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The area just east of Philly may get hit pretty darn good. How about NE Philly itself does that count Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Noaa briefing should be interesting or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Totals on GFS for our region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I wonder how the streets would fair if the GFS is right. Like I wonder how long it would take to cool the surface to start accumulating on the street Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Joe Bastardi @ BigJoeBastardi Latest Weatherbell idea.. GFS in agreement, though again more bullish on snow amounts than I am in I-95 pic.twitter.com/0lZRRO3V Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I wonder how the streets would fair if the GFS is right. Like I wonder how long it would take to cool the surface to start accumulating on the street I would assume that if the precip were to start at night would be very key with what you mention here. I still thnk we won't have a handle on this till 0Z tonight given the waffling around we have seen, but the 6Z & 12Z GFS are rather similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I wonder how the streets would fair if the GFS is right. Like I wonder how long it would take to cool the surface to start accumulating on the street I can get my infrared thermometer when i get home and take surface temperatures if you want an idea of what they might be like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Margin of error, imo. It could be just west of Philly or just northeast of Philly or... Yeah definitely, and actually looking at a little more, west looks pretty good..lol. I always like to give a margin of error in forecasts, but in my head..I like to get specific and see how things work out...mesoscale stuff and the such. Worked in the past. I would agree that the Philly to western MA corridor and within maybe 40 miles or so looks pretty good. Your overall first guess seems like a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I would agree that the Philly to western MA corridor and within maybe 40 miles or so looks pretty good. Yep, that's still what I am thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 12z GFS right on top of 6z, but colder. Delaware Valley jackpot again. 8" PHL, 4" ABE, 10" MIV, 3" BWI. Ratios 10:1 on that? Would hve to think this snow will be a bit more moisture laden than normal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Ratios 10:1 on that? Would hve to think this snow will be a bit more moisture laden than normal... I forget how MDA derives their ratios. Feel free to chop 20% off my estimates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 CMC way west, good hits for everybody Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 What an absolute bomb on the GGEM wow. I wish I had panels in between 24-36 hours to see how much of it is snow, hell even a lot of QPF between 36-48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Could be rain in PHL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 And this is why people shouldn't model hug; this was obviously a very close situation, not sure why everyone jumped ship at 0z. With such a sharp cutoff in QPF I don't think we'll be able to nail down an accurate forecast till 0z tonight. A 20 mile shift could mean all the difference... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 What an absolute bomb on the GGEM wow. I wish I had panels in between 24-36 hours to see how much of it is snow, hell even a lot of QPF between 36-48 hrs. Off topic, e-mail response I got about the SREF: Thank you for you inquiry and interest in the Model Analysis and Guidance (MAG) site. > There has been an on-going issue with the primary site used to host the MAG application. We are forced to use an older site with less capability while we engage our service provider for support. > > Unfortunately, there may be an extended period of time where this data is not available. We are working with the service provider to resolve this issue as soon as possible. > Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 heavy on cmc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Off topic, e-mail response I got about the SREF: Thank you for you inquiry and interest in the Model Analysis and Guidance (MAG) site. > There has been an on-going issue with the primary site used to host the MAG application. We are forced to use an older site with less capability while we engage our service provider for support. > > Unfortunately, there may be an extended period of time where this data is not available. We are working with the service provider to resolve this issue as soon as possible. > TY I appreciate it, I loved being able to see the SREFs right before the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I forget how MDA derives their ratios. Feel free to chop 20% off my estimates. It is indeed 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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