ptb127 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 What subforum would I use to track this first potential snowfall for my area? Hazleton pa around 1800' above sea level and around the junction of interstates 80 and 81 in pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 I would think Upstate NY/PA... but you're welcome here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 What subforum would I use to track this first potential snowfall for my area? Hazleton pa around 1800' above sea level and around the junction of interstates 80 and 81 in pa. It's more interesting here, plus I almost never see Eastern PA threads there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Pete. I use this forum mostly as it does seem to correlate better to our area than the Central PA forum. Also, for me anyway, I am just 5 miles from Mt Holly's CWA.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Mt Holly disco: .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... RECOVERY RESCUE OFFICIALS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR A HAMPERING IF NOT RETROGRADING OF RESTORATION EFFORTS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A LIKELY NOR`EASTER MOVES UP THE COAST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS (ESP EAST) AS WELL AS MINOR TO MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING APPEAR POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN AND EVEN SOME SNOW INLAND SNOW WOULD NOT BE A SHOCKER. PLEASE REFER TO OUR BRIEFING PACKAGE FOR MORE DETAILS. OUR WEB SITE LINK REMAINS DEGRADED AND THE SUMMARY STATEMENT OF THE BRIEFING PAGE CAN BE SEEN ON OUR FACEBOOK AND TWITTER PAGES. WE WISH IT WAS DIFFERENT ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE DEVASTATION FROM SANDY, BUT THE DOUBLE TELECONNECTION PATTERN CHANGE SWITCH OF THE NAO AND PNA SUPPORTS THE TRENDING MORE VIGOROUS NOR`EASTER SOLUTION WE ARE NOW SEEING WITH ALL OF THE MODELS. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED EASTWARD FROM YESTERDAY AND THE GFS HAS FINALLY SETTLED ON A MORE WESTWARD PLACEMENT THAT IT STARTED WITH THE 18Z RUN YESTERDAY. MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE GFS ARE EAST OF THE OPERATIONAL RUN, A CHARACTERISTIC WE ARE GLEANING OFF OF ALL OF THE OTHER MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS. AT THIS JUNCTURE THIS IS A NATURAL (LATER PHASING. MORE PROGRESSIVE) PLACEMENT OF LOWER RESOLUTION MEMBERS. THE ECMWF PHASES SOONER AND THUS PROLONGS THE ONSHORE FLOW LONGER AS THE LOW STALLS/SLOWS AT A LOWER LATITUDE. FOR THE OUTSTANDING JOB THAT THE ECMWF DID WITH SANDY IN DAYS 3-7, THERE WAS A LEFT OF TRACK BIAS ON SOME OF THE RUNS WITH SANDY. GIVEN WE ARE STILL FOUR DAYS AWAY, WE HAVE GONE WITH THE MOST ACCURATE TRACK COMBO FOR LAST WINTER (A GFS/ECMWF COMPROMISE). LEADING INTO THE NOR`EASTER CONDITIONS WILL BE CALM, AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE COOLER THAN NORMAL. IN FACT SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF OUR CWA AWAY FROM URBAN CENTERS AND THE COAST. OUR MIN TEMPS ARE A STAT GUIDANCE COMPROMISE. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF CAVEATS WITH THE MIN TEMPS, THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE SHOULD GENERATE SOME CLOUDS. THE GRADIENT ALSO DOES NOT LOOK TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL COME CLOSER TO OUR CWA. COUPLED WITH THE SHORT WAVE MOVING OFFSHORE, SKIES SHOULD BE SUNNIER MONDAY. AIR MASS THOUGH IS QUITE CHILLY AND EVEN ON THE COASTAL PLAIN, WE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO GET MUCH ABOVE 50F. IF SUNDAY NIGHT DOES NOT END THE GROWING SEASON, MONDAY NIGHT WOULD. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO CREST ACROSS OUR CWA AND WITH RIDGING ALOFT, THICKER CIRRUS SHOULD NOT ARRIVE IN TIME. MIN TEMPS ARE PRETTY CLOSE TO CONTINUITY AND A STAT GUIDANCE COMPROMISE. MANY SUBFREEZING LOWS. CLOUDS SHOULD BE INCREASING AS TUESDAY PROGRESSES AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND OUR NOR`EASTER STARTS FORMING ALONG THE GULF COAST. WE WERE CONSERVATIVE WITH MAX TEMPS BECAUSE OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE CLOUDS. IN GENERAL WE DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER AND WINDS FOR THE APPROACHING NOR`EASTER. THE GFS IS FASTER AND COLDER THAN THE ECMWF AND WOULD SUPPORT SOME SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA WHICH IS TIED TO EVAPORATIONAL COOLING AT THE FRONT END AND POSSIBLY SOME DYNAMICAL COOLING DURING THE EVENT. THE BIGGEST PROBLEMS THOUGH REMAIN ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE POSSIBILITY FOR MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING AND WIND ADVISORY GUST LEVELS EXIST. EVEN IF ADVISORY LEVELS ARE NOT MET ELSEWHERE, IT WILL BE WINDY AND ANY COMPROMISED STRUCTURES, TREES OR TREE LIMBS MIGHT BE DAMAGED FURTHER OR FALL. AFTER THE NOR`EASTER PASSES, AT LEAST A BRIEF CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED. FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM, IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. THURSDAY COULD BE WINDY WITH LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION IF THE SLOWER STALLING ECMWF VERIFIES. BEYOND THAT THERE IS CONSENSUS FOR DRY AND INCREASINGLY MILDER WEATHER ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BEYOND OUR DETERMINISTIC FORECAST, THE LATEST NAEFS AND GEFS IS SHOWING MILDER WEATHER FOR THE ENSUING WEEK. WITH THE OUTLOOK NAO GOING POSITIVE AND THE PNA GOING NEGATIVE, THIS WOULD ALSO SHIFT THE STORM TRACK BACK INTO CANADA. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THIS WILL BE A PATTERN RELOAD OR LONGER CHANGE IN STORE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 How does one access the Mt Holly weather briefing for next week's nor'easter on FB or twitter? This comm problem is for the birds lasting this long. The NWS should post these on weather boards like this until their site is up and running again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 How does one access the Mt Holly weather briefing for next week's nor'easter on FB or twitter? This comm problem is for the birds lasting this long. The NWS should post these on weather boards like this until their site is up and running again. https://twitter.com/NWS_MountHolly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 WE HAVE GONE WITH THE MOST ACCURATE TRACKCOMBO FOR LAST WINTER (A GFS/ECMWF COMPROMISE). still no respect for my NAM. How many times last winter was the NAM more accurate with colder temps and QPF? ( a lot) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 still no respect for my NAM. How many times last winter was the NAM more accurate with colder temps and QPF? ( a lot) The storm is out of the NAM's range. Why would they use it here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 still no respect for my NAM. How many times last winter was the NAM more accurate with colder temps and QPF? ( a lot) The NAM has its uses, mainly that due to its high resolution if it has the synoptic setup correct, it can nail the thermal profiles and meso scale precip banding better then the global models. However, the problem is, it has to have the larger scale features correct in order for its meso scale features to be depicted correctly and often times it does not. The NAM is only useful at very short lead times and when it agrees with the global models on the general synoptic setup of a storm. Then use it to pinpoint specifics. If the NAM has a different solution synoptically from the other models...its useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Well said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 The storm is out of the NAM's range. Why would they use it here? Just regarding last winter in general. It kicked butt in several cold-air damming situations. (I get ur point though) The NAM has its uses, mainly that due to its high resolution if it has the synoptic setup correct, it can nail the thermal profiles and meso scale precip banding better then the global models. However, the problem is, it has to have the larger scale features correct in order for its meso scale features to be depicted correctly and often times it does not. The NAM is only useful at very short lead times and when it agrees with the global models on the general synoptic setup of a storm. Then use it to pinpoint specifics. If the NAM has a different solution synoptically from the other models...its useless. It was pretty on-point 84 hours out with Sandy. Decent (and improving) for a non-tropical model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Just regarding last winter in general. It kicked butt in several cold-air damming situations. (I get ur point though) It was pretty on-point 84 hours out with Sandy. Decent (and improving) for a non-tropical model. within 24hrs deff use the nam for temps and storms. Its high resolution model so it will pick up on the meso affects and CAD situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Play nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 i sure hope we get power back before this event. so many power lines still on the roads around here. thanks for all the model updates here. please keep them coming since i only have 3g access now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 mike2010, can you please not sh*t up this thread with 84hr NAM defense? We have a banter thread if you'd like to weigh the pros and cons of the NAM at range. Thanks! u mad, bruh ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 i sure hope we get power back before this event. so many power lines still on the roads around here. thanks for all the model updates here. please keep them coming since i only have 3g access now I forget. Can you load model images with 3G?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 18Z GFS brings more pain to the shores of NJ and LI. 850 and 925 mb winds > 60 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 definitely looks like first snow of the yr for pocs to ne pa. Gfs hits that area pretty good. Wouldnt be surprised if the rdg to abe corridor see some flakes at the beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 definitely looks like first snow of the yr for pocs to ne pa. Gfs hits that area pretty good. Wouldnt be surprised if the rdg to abe corridor see some flakes at the beginning. If only this were 12/5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 If only this were 12/5. yea i know, it would be very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 u mad, bruh ? no, let's keep the discussion relevant to the thread title. Here are two more posts that are just junking things up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 u mad, bruh ? Lets not **** this thread up with posts like this, we've got a real danger coming next week down here, and I'd appreciate it if things stayed civilized and on topic. Not complaining that no one gives the NAM love well outside of its wheelhouse, and you mad bruh. We had one of the best subforums during Sandy, the knowledge I got from here was beyond fantastic, and I'd like to keep it that way. I've been in Point Pleasant Beach for the last 24 hours relieving crews here, and there's a real chance these same areas will be inundated again come Wed. There's no dunes or beach left to stop it from happening again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 I thought that guy was 5 posted... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 What's going in this thread?!?!? Anyway, here is a misery map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 I thought that guy was 5 posted... Looks like only for storm mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 18Z GFS brings more pain to the shores of NJ and LI. 850 and 925 mb winds > 60 knots. This is small comfort, but at least with a synoptic scale system and a nearly isothermal sounding,the mixing wont be as efficient. Then again this low has a bombing rate so doubtful that peak gusts based on the model runs that I saw today would be less than 45 mph along the coast. As for the nam not having any love, at one time the gfs/nam combination did have the lowest track errors within 72hrs, now its the gfs/euro (during the cold season). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 What's going in this thread?!?!? Anyway, here is a misery map Ugh. This is just awful for the Jersey beaches. With no dunes left any surge will be troubling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Ugh. This is just awful for the Jersey beaches. With no dunes left any surge will be troubling. Hopefully those winds are overdone, and don't crank enough to take down trees that were on the verge of toppling once Sandy eased... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 How does one access the Mt Holly weather briefing for next week's nor'easter on FB or twitter? This comm problem is for the birds lasting this long. The NWS should post these on weather boards like this until their site is up and running again. A Facebook search nws mount holly will get you there. Our website is down due to issues at Eastern region HQ on Long Island. Hopefully it will be back up soon. We do our best to post all briefing packages to FB and twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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