Heisy Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Yea its warm but IDK, might cool down as the model continues... congrats DC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 much warmer at the surface to start More importantly, the warm air surges in aloft. This sounding is probably a rain/snow/sleet mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 This is not a banter thread, folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsu_wxgirl Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Great thanks. At least I know what the terms are, just never seen the acronyms. TROWAL = TRough Of Warm Air Aloft CCB = Cold Conveyor Belt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 OK, 36 is more isothermal probably due to heavier precip. Might be snow or rain/snow mix, but if its snow it slop-fest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 And nam is west. .5-.75 along i95..more south and east thru 36hrs..looks to be sub 990attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Helluva shift ongoing right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 PHL looks close to R/S line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 36 hr wunderweeniemap (NAM) (and yeah, that is a pretty decent shift west on the NAM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Models are mind boggling ugh. Looks like NAM brings advisory level snows to eastern pa now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 39 is rain? Anyhow.... Thermal profiles aside, big shift from 0z to 6z to start of 12z..... Someone is getting snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 RPM through 36. Temps are right on the rain/snow fence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Really ramps up the wind threat CNJ-NNJ, onshore flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Someone is getting snow.. While the coast is getting hammered again. This was quite a jump to the West on the NAM.....expecting the GFS to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 39 is rain? Sure is... NAM is threading the needle again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 925mb winds are howling from the nw..have to believe its dynamically cooling the column.. Where though? I dunno..I cancelled this storm last night. But that was a temp moment of insanity due to the eagles loss ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Slow motion close to NJ coast - not good for beaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 More importantly, the warm air surges in aloft. This sounding is probably a rain/snow/sleet mix. There was a subtle 10-20 degree veering of the winds aloft, bringing more of the warmer atlantic into play and some sleet for Rib. Feel bad for the coast, at least advisory level winds on this run. Otherwise, the back and forth with these runs is like watching a tennis match. Congrats Pa, make that Jersey, make that Pa, make that Jersey.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 NAM shows that inverted trough feature near cape map as the 500mb low stalls out. I wouldn't buy the NAM solution right now until we get to 18-24 hours. I'd rather be on the fence then have no storm We'll see how rest of suite goes for the 'Highzenberg' storm. Never seen so much model chaos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 How far west do we believe the precip will track? As far as Harrisburg? I imagine a sharp cutoff/ripoff zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Sure is... NAM is threading the needle again. it makes total sense to. Without the strong deform band, it can drag down or dynamically cool the column. Granted the storm is further west but it never really cranks a ccb except along the coast where its to warm with the onshore flow. This was one the concerns with this storm, where is the cold air at? It has to be produced with strong lift on the western side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 it makes total sense to. Without the strong deform band, it can drag down or dynamically cool the column. Granted the storm is further west but it never really cranks a ccb except along the coast where its to warm with the onshore flow. This was one the concerns with this storm, where is the cold air at? It has to be produced with strong lift on the western side. One thing I also noticed is that as the main precip band move it it appears to be on a subtle weakening trend. Probably not good, though there can still be a period of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Wow, shift west with the NAM. I'll worry about rain/snow when it is falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 How far west do we believe the precip will track? As far as Harrisburg? I imagine a sharp cutoff/ripoff zone Definitely going to be a sharp gradient with this storm, like every def band dependent storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 it makes total sense to. Without the strong deform band, it can drag down or dynamically cool the column. Granted the storm is further west but it never really cranks a ccb except along the coast where its to warm with the onshore flow. This was one the concerns with this storm, where is the cold air at? It has to be produced with strong lift on the western side. Yep, but with all of the globals showing a def band, I'm not going to just buy it going away based on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 One thing I also noticed is that as the main precip band move it it appears to be on a subtle weakening trend. Probably not good, though there can still be a period of snow. yup, you can see it on thee VV chart. Once the band pushes inland it weakens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Sub980....hmmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Yep, but with all of the globals showing a def band, I'm not going to just buy it going away based on the NAM I agree, just one model run and you are still outside of 24hrs for the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Not to mention, look at how much of a shift in guidance there has been in less than 12hrs. It's maddening right now. Poor tony and mike. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 it can still come further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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