snowlurker Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Of note was that the EC held onto it long after all the others gave up on it, then gave up on it less than a day before the GFS re-latched onto it. That's the part that I remember for Delaware. Boxing Day flurries = coal in stocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Is the euro ensemble dry for the Mt Holly FA? Adam mentioned the average was close to the op (so no, its not dry) but lots of spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Accu That's a bad forecast. Zero model support for something like that. If the models are right, this will be a good test to see how dynamics can flip a borderline area to snow. The dynamics are pretty good for PHL and especially NJ which sort of makes you want to be bullish, but this PITA storm makes confidence a little lower. I like the continued banding modeled on the GFS. It has the look of one band moving in, dumping its load and then maybe another redeveloping. Perhaps not a continued TROWAL or CCB look, but may be a little convective in nature. Some elevated instability -EPV possible with dryslot impinging onto the NJ coast if the GFS is right. The euro of course is east with the good stuff, but if it has the same characteristics. We will need something like the GFS because 15-20DBZs will not cut it. Yep. This is the whole forecast. Someone will get that frontogenesis forcing and will pick up 6-8". P.S. We need an abbreviation for frontogenesis Is the euro ensemble dry for the Mt Holly FA? 2-3 verbatim, but it is smeared out because of the spread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 P.S. We need an abbreviation for frontogenesis FG? I thnk I've seen that used before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 That's a bad forecast. Zero model support for something like that. doesn't make sense and I'm no met . i'm sure they will change it again this am. henry: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I guess Henry expects a big shift west wit the storm, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 henry: That was a great forecast on Sunday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Henry always seems a few days late with his snow forecasts. Does anyone have a good link for the srefs? I used to get them from NCEP right before the NAM would come out. SREFs would always give me a good idea how the NAM would trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Henry always seems a few days late with his snow forecasts. Does anyone have a good link for the srefs? I used to get them from NCEP right before the NAM would come out. SREFs would always give me a good idea how the NAM would trend. Maps: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewallsref.html Plumes1: http://www.spc.nssl.noaa.gov/exper/sref/plume/ Plumes2: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Maps: http://www.meteo.psu.../ewallsref.html Plumes1: http://www.spc.nssl....per/sref/plume/ Plumes2: http://www.spc.noaa....r/sref/fplumes/ ty! Any idea why NCEP took them off? They used to come out 20-15 mins before the NAM on that site which was always cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Of note was that the EC held onto it long after all the others gave up on it, then gave up on it less than a day before the GFS re-latched onto it. I very much remember this whole sequence as I raced to my parents' house in Monmouth County to experience it. That said, how similar is this set up to that storm this far out? Do the mets remember what players brought the models/storm back West that close to the start? I don't post too much and try to listen and learn --- and one thing I've heard loud and clear from the mets is it's tought to compare what the models do on one storm versus another unless the set up is similar. Thanks in advance to all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I very much remember this whole sequence as I raced to my parents' house in Monmouth County to experience it. That said, how similar is this set up to that storm this far out? Do the mets remember what players brought the models/storm back West that close to the start? I don't post too much and try to listen and learn --- and one thing I've heard loud and clear from the mets is it's tought to compare what the models do on one storm versus another unless the set up is similar. Thanks in advance to all! My memory is vague... but it was a triple phaser and the late arriving northern stream impulse turned out stronger than it looked earlier... but again, my memory is vague. Kocin wrote a detailed paper on it, you can probably google it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsu_wxgirl Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I know I'm a meteorologist but I think this is the first time I've seen some of your acronyms. Could you please define the bolded items in your post!?!? Thanks! *** Edit: Adam just defined PITA across the cube wall and is laughing at me. I am also laughing at myself. If the models are right, this will be a good test to see how dynamics can flip a borderline area to snow. The dynamics are pretty good for PHL and especially NJ which sort of makes you want to be bullish, but this PITA storm makes confidence a little lower. I like the continued banding modeled on the GFS. It has the look of one band moving in, dumping its load and then maybe another redeveloping. Perhaps not a continued TROWAL or CCB look, but may be a little convective in nature. Some elevated instability -EPV possible with dryslot impinging onto the NJ coast if the GFS is right. The euro of course is east with the good stuff, but if it has the same characteristics. We will need something like the GFS because 15-20DBZs will not cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Here's the Kocin paper from Boxing Day http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/winter_storm_summaries/event_reviews/2010/December25_27_2010_Blizzard.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I know I'm a meteorologist but I think this is the first time I've seen some of your acronyms. Could you please define the bolded items in your post!?!? Thanks! I can tell you that PITA is "Pain In The A$$".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 700 mb maps. Current and 00 and 06 GFS. 00 GFS is too flat in SE Current . 06 GFS 00 GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I know I'm a meteorologist but I think this is the first time I've seen some of your acronyms. Could you please define the bolded items in your post!?!? Thanks! *** Edit: Adam just defined PITA across the cube wall and is laughing at me. I am also laughing at myself. TROWAL = TRough Of Warm Air Aloft CCB = Cold Conveyor Belt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I know I'm a meteorologist but I think this is the first time I've seen some of your acronyms. Could you please define the bolded items in your post!?!? Thanks! *** Edit: Adam just defined PITA across the cube wall and is laughing at me. I am also laughing at myself. I'd love a acronym pinned post for non mets, non pro's, rookies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Here's the Kocin paper from Boxing Day http://www.hpc.ncep....10_Blizzard.pdf Awesome. Thank you. This will help as we go through the day to see if there are any similarities. Seeing the RGEM and NAM tick back West this AM makes you wonder what the 12z suite will look like...especially after yeterday's runs. Craziness... That's a big blocking High up there and it's flipping cold here in the Poconos --- lake has ice on top of it for the first time (Lakeville, PA/Paupackan Lake --- where I'm staying since my house in NJ has now power still). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I know I'm a meteorologist but I think this is the first time I've seen some of your acronyms. Could you please define the bolded items in your post!?!? Thanks! *** Edit: Adam just defined PITA across the cube wall and is laughing at me. I am also laughing at myself. My bad, I should define it for anybody who doesn't know. CCB is the cold conveyor belt. This is the band of rain or snow that we sometimes see get curled into the NW side of the low into the East Coast. Usually associated with strong erly flow at 850 to say 700mb or so. The TROWAL stands for trough of warm air aloft. Sometimes this is also the WCB ascending isentropically. If you look at things like 700mb theta-e, it's the area of higher theta the wraps in back to the NW side of the cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Apple and orange eyeballing 500mb charts off of SPC and NCEP site, the sern trof looks baggier than progged by all of the models, most of it on the western side. 00z run was either too fast or too baggy on the east side. Not good regardless. 12z run yesterday was too sharp. The 500mb low in the St. Lawrence Valley looks modeled well. The other factor the trof in Minnesota, hats off to the 06z run there. The flat ridge west 00z or 06z run looks better than yesterday's 12z run, looks like apex slightly farther west than modeled. So nothing is off the table. (That was really bold of me wasn't it? ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 ty! Any idea why NCEP took them off? They used to come out 20-15 mins before the NAM on that site which was always cool I'm not sure at all. There is no message about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 So...are we looking like a miss now in East/Central PA? Last I heard everything was shifting east? Love how yesterday the models were showing 3-6 in RDG on some models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Here's the Kocin paper from Boxing Day http://www.hpc.ncep....10_Blizzard.pdf In reading through, it was remarkable how many of the models had the storm 5-6 days out --- even 3 days out and then all lost it East (even the steadfast Euro), only to have them come back as late as the 25th. From the Kocin paper: "While this report does not provide specific reasons for the performance characteristics of all the models, we do note that this case was marked by the complex phasing of different short-wave upper-level troughs upstream of the cyclogenetic event." That said and read, does this have any of those similar characteristics? Are the models missing the phasing shooting it East, whereas the next suite of models and even those thereafter could either phase quicker and pull West or even go further East (of course, all things are popular). From what I've read, it's less about the models now and looking at the players on the field to figure out when and where it comes together. I know that's vague and perhaps 'obvious', but for the amateur enthusiast like me, that's where I can watch and learn! Thanks all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Going 1-3 for along I-95 east to about 10 miles west of the coast. Am willing to nudge higher but I think 1-3 is where I'm at right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I still like "it might snow" til I see 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 09 SREF has shifter west a bit. Brings 0.75 line almost to Del river, previously in E NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 NAM coming in west 6z GFS West RGEM West SREF West 12z NAM West Naturally the GFS will go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 much warmer at the surface to start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 NAM coming in west And warmish as expected with a west track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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