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11/7 Noreaster Thread


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Accu

400x266_11060930_ne_snow_new_110612.jpg

That's a bad forecast. Zero model support for something like that.

If the models are right, this will be a good test to see how dynamics can flip a borderline area to snow. The dynamics are pretty good for PHL and especially NJ which sort of makes you want to be bullish, but this PITA storm makes confidence a little lower. I like the continued banding modeled on the GFS. It has the look of one band moving in, dumping its load and then maybe another redeveloping. Perhaps not a continued TROWAL or CCB look, but may be a little convective in nature. Some elevated instability -EPV possible with dryslot impinging onto the NJ coast if the GFS is right. The euro of course is east with the good stuff, but if it has the same characteristics. We will need something like the GFS because 15-20DBZs will not cut it.

Yep. This is the whole forecast. Someone will get that frontogenesis forcing and will pick up 6-8".

P.S. We need an abbreviation for frontogenesis

Is the euro ensemble dry for the Mt Holly FA?

2-3 verbatim, but it is smeared out because of the spread

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Henry always seems a few days late with his snow forecasts. Does anyone have a good link for the srefs? I used to get them from NCEP right before the NAM would come out. SREFs would always give me a good idea how the NAM would trend.

Maps: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewallsref.html

Plumes1: http://www.spc.nssl.noaa.gov/exper/sref/plume/

Plumes2: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/

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Of note was that the EC held onto it long after all the others gave up on it, then gave up on it less than a day before the GFS re-latched onto it.

I very much remember this whole sequence as I raced to my parents' house in Monmouth County to experience it. That said, how similar is this set up to that storm this far out? Do the mets remember what players brought the models/storm back West that close to the start? I don't post too much and try to listen and learn --- and one thing I've heard loud and clear from the mets is it's tought to compare what the models do on one storm versus another unless the set up is similar.

Thanks in advance to all!

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I very much remember this whole sequence as I raced to my parents' house in Monmouth County to experience it. That said, how similar is this set up to that storm this far out? Do the mets remember what players brought the models/storm back West that close to the start? I don't post too much and try to listen and learn --- and one thing I've heard loud and clear from the mets is it's tought to compare what the models do on one storm versus another unless the set up is similar.

Thanks in advance to all!

My memory is vague... but it was a triple phaser and the late arriving northern stream impulse turned out stronger than it looked earlier... but again, my memory is vague. Kocin wrote a detailed paper on it, you can probably google it.

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I know I'm a meteorologist but I think this is the first time I've seen some of your acronyms. Could you please define the bolded items in your post!?!? Thanks!

*** Edit: Adam just defined PITA across the cube wall and is laughing at me. I am also laughing at myself.

If the models are right, this will be a good test to see how dynamics can flip a borderline area to snow. The dynamics are pretty good for PHL and especially NJ which sort of makes you want to be bullish, but this PITA storm makes confidence a little lower. I like the continued banding modeled on the GFS. It has the look of one band moving in, dumping its load and then maybe another redeveloping. Perhaps not a continued TROWAL or CCB look, but may be a little convective in nature. Some elevated instability -EPV possible with dryslot impinging onto the NJ coast if the GFS is right. The euro of course is east with the good stuff, but if it has the same characteristics. We will need something like the GFS because 15-20DBZs will not cut it.

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I know I'm a meteorologist but I think this is the first time I've seen some of your acronyms. Could you please define the bolded items in your post!?!? Thanks!

*** Edit: Adam just defined PITA across the cube wall and is laughing at me. I am also laughing at myself.

TROWAL = TRough Of Warm Air Aloft

CCB = Cold Conveyor Belt

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I know I'm a meteorologist but I think this is the first time I've seen some of your acronyms. Could you please define the bolded items in your post!?!? Thanks!

*** Edit: Adam just defined PITA across the cube wall and is laughing at me. I am also laughing at myself.

I'd love a acronym pinned post for non mets, non pro's, rookies wink.png

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Here's the Kocin paper from Boxing Day

http://www.hpc.ncep....10_Blizzard.pdf

Awesome. Thank you. This will help as we go through the day to see if there are any similarities. Seeing the RGEM and NAM tick back West this AM makes you wonder what the 12z suite will look like...especially after yeterday's runs. Craziness...

That's a big blocking High up there and it's flipping cold here in the Poconos --- lake has ice on top of it for the first time (Lakeville, PA/Paupackan Lake --- where I'm staying since my house in NJ has now power still).

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I know I'm a meteorologist but I think this is the first time I've seen some of your acronyms. Could you please define the bolded items in your post!?!? Thanks!

*** Edit: Adam just defined PITA across the cube wall and is laughing at me. I am also laughing at myself.

My bad, I should define it for anybody who doesn't know.

CCB is the cold conveyor belt. This is the band of rain or snow that we sometimes see get curled into the NW side of the low into the East Coast. Usually associated with strong erly flow at 850 to say 700mb or so.

The TROWAL stands for trough of warm air aloft. Sometimes this is also the WCB ascending isentropically. If you look at things like 700mb theta-e, it's the area of higher theta the wraps in back to the NW side of the cyclone.

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Apple and orange eyeballing 500mb charts off of SPC and NCEP site, the sern trof looks baggier than progged by all of the models, most of it on the western side. 00z run was either too fast or too baggy on the east side. Not good regardless. 12z run yesterday was too sharp. The 500mb low in the St. Lawrence Valley looks modeled well. The other factor the trof in Minnesota, hats off to the 06z run there. The flat ridge west 00z or 06z run looks better than yesterday's 12z run, looks like apex slightly farther west than modeled. So nothing is off the table. (That was really bold of me wasn't it? whistle.gif )

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Here's the Kocin paper from Boxing Day

http://www.hpc.ncep....10_Blizzard.pdf

In reading through, it was remarkable how many of the models had the storm 5-6 days out --- even 3 days out and then all lost it East (even the steadfast Euro), only to have them come back as late as the 25th.

From the Kocin paper: "While this report does not provide specific reasons for the performance characteristics of all the models, we do note that this case was marked by the complex phasing of different short-wave upper-level troughs upstream of the cyclogenetic event."

That said and read, does this have any of those similar characteristics? Are the models missing the phasing shooting it East, whereas the next suite of models and even those thereafter could either phase quicker and pull West or even go further East (of course, all things are popular). From what I've read, it's less about the models now and looking at the players on the field to figure out when and where it comes together.

I know that's vague and perhaps 'obvious', but for the amateur enthusiast like me, that's where I can watch and learn!

Thanks all!

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