Heisy Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The GFS keeps heavy band of moisture for a prolongued period. Looks almost like an inverted trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Struggling with the s/w's. The backside s/w is causing model disasters. Still looks like some sort of band could hit near or east of Philly, but confidence isn't great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Struggling with the s/w's. The backside s/w is causing model disasters. Still looks like some sort of band could hit near or east of Philly, but confidence isn't great. What we can hope is that the kicker s/w will at least put an end to the prolonged stall solutions like we saw at 12Z yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 What we can hope is that the kicker s/w will at least put an end to the prolonged stall solutions like we saw at 12Z yesterday. GFS and Euro are still decent looking for the metro area and especially just east. GFS especially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I still like my map from NYC south. Might need to trim back amounts across New England, but whatevs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 fwiw the gefs are back to the west solution. bring .75-1qpf from phl to jersey turnpike...then jersey turnpike east til about 15 miles from coast 1-1.25 and 1.25-1.50 along coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Didn't see this posted, but the 0z Euro ensemble was close to the op. A lot more spread than usual, though, on a 36 hour forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 tombo this is really incredible considering the 00z suite. I mean we rarely see this kind of shift under 48hrs. I expected to wake up to see 6z GFS a slight nudge west but still not much...really crazy. If we see western shift @ 12z it might be game-on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Didn't see this posted, but the 0z Euro ensemble was close to the op. A lot more spread than usual, though, on a 36 hour forecast is this setup more convoluted than sandy? It seems like the sandy forecast had more players than this. Though here you are banking on a timed phase with 2 s/w's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 is this setup more convoluted than sandy? It seems like the sandy forecast had more players than this. Though here you are banking on a timed phase with 2 s/w's Sandy had more players, but they were bigger players. There's a lot more subtlety to this forecast. I'm still on board with a general 2-4, 3-6 type event for the metro, even up in to the LV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Check out the differences here, Just an amazing 6 hour shift for an ensemble mean. The top is 00z mean @ 48 hrs, Bottom is 06z mean @ 48 hours. I don't have 54 hr mean but you can obviously see the differences. Really big shift this late in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 here are some of the indiv 12z gfs ens members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I can honestly say, tracking wx for 11 years I haven't seen this much back and forth between all the models at this time frame. I would have swore the GFS would be locked in by now. Boxing Day storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The GFS and Euro still have good frontogenesis and deformation over the area. PHL/NJ FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Boxing Day storm? This is close, except that storm the GFS around this time frame was the only model showing snow, around 30hrs out they all switched. I remember the 6z-12z-18z GFS the day before showed snow but all other models OTS, 00z euro the night before finally brought it in. This is even crazier because models have shifted from too far inland to ots then back...And its not just one it's all of them. If I lived in DC/Balt I went to sleep last night thinking of getting 0 precip & now GFS brings them back into accumulating snow and possibly close to significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The GFS and Euro still have good frontogenesis and deformation over the area. PHL/NJ FTW. just comparing the 0z from 6z, the northern s/w looks about the same, its the southern s/w that seems like its stronger that is allowing the front side ridge to bend back towards the coast more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 With still no FIOS services at home, here at work reading through the last couple of pages has been very entertaining catching up on the model swing runs. Deja-Vu to many events over the years. Still shocked seeing blow torch adam's map but I'm on board Sandy had more players, but they were bigger players. There's a lot more subtlety to this forecast. I'm still on board with a general 2-4, 3-6 type event for the metro, even up in to the LV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Joe Bastardi @ BigJoeBastardi have adjusted track and belt of heaviest snows east to near I-95.6z GFS goes wild with a foot near phl (too much imo)pic.twitter.com/YU321Ur2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Still shocked seeing blow torch adam's map but I'm on board Being right >> being comfortable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Boxing Day storm? Started around 17z on the 26th here. 12z GFS on the 24th had it. I think most models had it with the 00z run on the 25th, so the 00z run overnight we just have had should have been the come together run. Just goes to show you then and now how subtle differences can make big changes in outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Sandy had more players, but they were bigger players. There's a lot more subtlety to this forecast. I'm still on board with a general 2-4, 3-6 type event for the metro, even up in to the LV. I'm still on board with "it might snow" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Sandy had more players, but they were bigger players. There's a lot more subtlety to this forecast. Which really does tell us that the best thing to make forecasts better would be a higher density of upper air observations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Looks like the 06 GFS is verifying better than the 00z this morning based on: low extending west closer to coast, 500 mb trough starting to go negative, 700 mb closed off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Which really does tell us that the best thing to make forecasts better would be a higher density of upper air observations. QPF last several runs by the GFS at PHL (current first) 06z, didn't update yet, >1.0" 00z .02" 18z .07" 12z 1.07" 06z .46" 00z 1.52" 18z 1.31" 12z 0.89" on the 4th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Which really does tell us that the best thing to make forecasts better would be a higher density of upper air observations. Temporally and spatially, plz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Accu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Models started showing Boxing day storm to varying degrees more than a week out. Then all lost it OTS. Then the GFS started bringing it back (eventually to far west though) and the others followed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 If the models are right, this will be a good test to see how dynamics can flip a borderline area to snow. The dynamics are pretty good for PHL and especially NJ which sort of makes you want to be bullish, but this PITA storm makes confidence a little lower. I like the continued banding modeled on the GFS. It has the look of one band moving in, dumping its load and then maybe another redeveloping. Perhaps not a continued TROWAL or CCB look, but may be a little convective in nature. Some elevated instability -EPV possible with dryslot impinging onto the NJ coast if the GFS is right. The euro of course is east with the good stuff, but if it has the same characteristics. We will need something like the GFS because 15-20DBZs will not cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Models started showing Boxing day storm to varying degrees more than a week out. Then all lost it OTS. Then the GFS started bringing it back (eventually to far west though) and the others followed. Of note was that the EC held onto it long after all the others gave up on it, then gave up on it less than a day before the GFS re-latched onto it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Is the euro ensemble dry for the Mt Holly FA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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