dan88 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 0z GGEM 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Maybe we should rename it the Hindenberg storm Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I'm not a god-faring man... but I gotta admit, if this does swing wide right, it makes you wonder if maybe some higher power had a hand in keeping this one away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 RGEM looks further east also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Well, comparing the primary GFS runs (last nights 0Z to today's 12Z to the current 0Z), the trend is definitely to decrease the phase... slow down the second impulse and speed up the first one. I guess that's a real "trend" and obviously there's really only one thing that can happen if it doesn't reverse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I'm not a god-faring man... but I gotta admit, if this does swing wide right, it makes you wonder if maybe some higher power had a hand in keeping this one away... HAARP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 i'm officially calling off this storm.... Maybe its the eagles loss and im utterly frustrated.... Terrible job by the models, especially the euro. We all know where this is heading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Good lord if the Latest RPM model run is correct it has a bit of 12z euro too it. It did have a good summer with severe wx but I do not know how good it is with nor'easters. http://www.wdbj7ftp.us/weather/WDBJ-12kmcloudprecip.gif As for my take I would wait a bit still before gong with ots North and west could be out of the game but we may still see the models comes back west for I95 or jersey. and then again we could see the euro hold serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 im utterly frustrated.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 With the hurricane hunters flying into the system later tomorrow i sincerely expect the models to waffle until then.. The only model i do not see with major changes is the ecm with looking at its ensemble means... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 well, there's no shortage of uncertainty... This joke is so 8 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 With the hurricane hunters flying into the system later tomorrow i sincerely expect the models to waffle until then.. The only model i do not see with major changes is the ecm with looking at its ensemble means... What will an AF plane do though? The issue is the timing of the s/w. Gathering data over the coastal Antlantic means almost nothing. I still don't really get why they're even flying a mission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 What will an AF plane do though? The issue is the timing of the s/w. Gathering data over the coastal Antlantic means almost nothing. I still don't really get why they're even flying a mission. I would imagine it would serve to get better data into the models. They did this a couple years back for one of the storm systems... It is really nothing new.. A storm that "could have an impact" on the region.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 With the hurricane hunters flying into the system later tomorrow i sincerely expect the models to waffle until then.. The only model i do not see with major changes is the ecm with looking at its ensemble means... I am rather interested to see what hurricane hunter data finds or does my self to the models tomorrow evening it could keep it east or bring it back west. Also the euro ensemble mean has had the same track for many days now. Maybe someone else can correct me if I am wrong on this but Historically isn't it usually better then op euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I would imagine it would serve to get better data into the models. They did this a couple years back for one of the storm systems... It is really nothing new.. A storm that "could have an impact" on the region.... Right... but what useful data? Isn't the northern stream s/w the more important factor here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Right... but what useful data? Isn't the northern stream s/w the more important factor here? I think the timing and the phasing of the energies is the most important thing along with the depth of the trough that will be forming across the east.. If the energies phase i believe we have something but if they phase to late well then we are obviously not going to have to worry about anything ..which ..honestly after sandy would be the better scenario anyways... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I think the timing and the phasing of the energies is the most important thing along with the depth of the trough that will be forming across the east.. If the energies phase i believe we have something but if they phase to late well then we are obviously not going to have to worry about anything ..which ..honestly after sandy would be the better scenario anyways... I suppose. It sounds like someone at the federal level is a little too gung-ho post-Sandy, if you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Fwiw (prob not much) the ecm still shows snow for snj/cnj.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Not an encouraging sign at this point for those who want snow in Philly. The EC does spit it out but given the lighter QPF I'm not sure it snows to the surface (it may do so aloft but who cares about that). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Mount holly THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE PROBLEM COULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY EVENING. DURING THAT TIME...DYNAMIC COOLING WILL BE AT IT PEAK...WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS RESULTING IN AN OVERALL COOLER COLUMN. MOST MODELS SHOWS THE BEST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SETTING UP ACROSS NEW JERSEY DURING THE EVENING. THIS IMPLIES THE BEST CHANCE OF BANDING...AND THE BEST VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BEST DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONES ACROSS NEW JERSEY DURING THE EVENING AS WELL. ALL OF THIS ADDS UP TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS IS THE AREA WITH THE BEST OVERLAPPING MID LEVEL FORCING AND DENDRITIC GROWTH. IF THIS WERE A MONTH LATER...THERE WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND GROUND TEMPERATURES MAKE FORECASTING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HERE PROBLEMATIC. RIGHT NOW...IT WOULD APPEAR COLDER SURFACES WOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS...WITH TRAVEL SURFACES TOO WARM FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. FOR NOW...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE ABOVEMENTIONED AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING AMOUNTS. LOWS WERE MAINLY BASED ON THE MOS BLEND...AND DROPPED A TAD DUE TO THE COOL COLUMN. http://forecast.weat...=1&highlight=on Hpc http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_04.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 For what it's worth (not much), 6z RGEM is far west of 0z and quite wet though this area with more than an inch liquid for Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 6z gfs http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/06zgfs850mbTSLPp06036.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 6z GFS back West of the last couple runs, significant precip for I-95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Hr 42 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/06zgfs850mbTSLPp06042.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 6z GFS brings it back back back. Holla. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 6z GFS brings it back back back. Holla. Congrats rays parents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 So pretty much every model trended east at 0Z... now we have some back flips at 6Z. Wake me after the 12Z guidance is all in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 the 6z GFS & RGEM come west? Are the models playing games us on? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 So pretty much every model trended east at 0Z... now we have some back flips at 6Z. Wake me after the 12Z guidance is all in I can honestly say, tracking wx for 11 years I haven't seen this much back and forth between all the models at this time frame. I would have swore the GFS would be locked in by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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