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11/7 Noreaster Thread


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Well, comparing the primary GFS runs (last nights 0Z to today's 12Z to the current 0Z), the trend is definitely to decrease the phase... slow down the second impulse and speed up the first one. I guess that's a real "trend" and obviously there's really only one thing that can happen if it doesn't reverse.

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Good lord if the Latest RPM model run is correct it has a bit of 12z euro too it. It did have a good summer with severe wx but I do not know how good it is with nor'easters.

http://www.wdbj7ftp.us/weather/WDBJ-12kmcloudprecip.gif

As for my take I would wait a bit still before gong with ots North and west could be out of the game but we may still see the models comes back west for I95 or jersey. and then again we could see the euro hold serve.

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With the hurricane hunters flying into the system later tomorrow i sincerely expect the models to waffle until then.. The only model i do not see with major changes is the ecm with looking at its ensemble means...

What will an AF plane do though? The issue is the timing of the s/w. Gathering data over the coastal Antlantic means almost nothing. I still don't really get why they're even flying a mission.

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What will an AF plane do though? The issue is the timing of the s/w. Gathering data over the coastal Antlantic means almost nothing. I still don't really get why they're even flying a mission.

I would imagine it would serve to get better data into the models. They did this a couple years back for one of the storm systems... It is really nothing new.. A storm that "could have an impact" on the region....

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With the hurricane hunters flying into the system later tomorrow i sincerely expect the models to waffle until then.. The only model i do not see with major changes is the ecm with looking at its ensemble means...

I am rather interested to see what hurricane hunter data finds or does my self to the models tomorrow evening it could keep it east or bring it back west. Also the euro ensemble mean has had the same track for many days now. Maybe someone else can correct me if I am wrong on this but Historically isn't it usually better then op euro?

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I would imagine it would serve to get better data into the models. They did this a couple years back for one of the storm systems... It is really nothing new.. A storm that "could have an impact" on the region....

Right... but what useful data? Isn't the northern stream s/w the more important factor here?

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Right... but what useful data? Isn't the northern stream s/w the more important factor here?

I think the timing and the phasing of the energies is the most important thing along with the depth of the trough that will be forming across the east..

If the energies phase i believe we have something but if they phase to late well then we are obviously not going to have to worry about anything ..which ..honestly after sandy would be the better scenario anyways...

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I think the timing and the phasing of the energies is the most important thing along with the depth of the trough that will be forming across the east..

If the energies phase i believe we have something but if they phase to late well then we are obviously not going to have to worry about anything ..which ..honestly after sandy would be the better scenario anyways...

I suppose.

It sounds like someone at the federal level is a little too gung-ho post-Sandy, if you ask me.

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Mount holly

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE PROBLEM COULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY EVENING.

DURING THAT TIME...DYNAMIC COOLING WILL BE AT IT PEAK...WITH

LOWERING HEIGHTS RESULTING IN AN OVERALL COOLER COLUMN. MOST MODELS

SHOWS THE BEST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SETTING UP ACROSS NEW

JERSEY DURING THE EVENING. THIS IMPLIES THE BEST CHANCE OF

BANDING...AND THE BEST VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS. MODEL SOUNDINGS

SHOW THE BEST DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONES ACROSS NEW JERSEY DURING THE

EVENING AS WELL.

ALL OF THIS ADDS UP TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING

SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY DURING WEDNESDAY

EVENING. THIS IS THE AREA WITH THE BEST OVERLAPPING MID LEVEL

FORCING AND DENDRITIC GROWTH. IF THIS WERE A MONTH LATER...THERE

WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...THE

BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND GROUND TEMPERATURES MAKE FORECASTING

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HERE PROBLEMATIC. RIGHT NOW...IT WOULD APPEAR

COLDER SURFACES WOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME

ACCUMULATIONS...WITH TRAVEL SURFACES TOO WARM FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION.

FOR NOW...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE

ABOVEMENTIONED AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE IS STILL

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING AMOUNTS. LOWS WERE MAINLY BASED

ON THE MOS BLEND...AND DROPPED A TAD DUE TO THE COOL COLUMN.

http://forecast.weat...=1&highlight=on

Hpc

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_04.gif

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So pretty much every model trended east at 0Z... now we have some back flips at 6Z. laugh.png Wake me after the 12Z guidance is all in wink.png

I can honestly say, tracking wx for 11 years I haven't seen this much back and forth between all the models at this time frame. I would have swore the GFS would be locked in by now.

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