tombo82685 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 regardless of what occurs, the models saw something today that made them trend east with each run. That something is the later phase do to the separation between s/w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 regardless of what occurs, the models saw something today that made them trend east with each run. GFS at 12z disagrees with this compared to 6 and 0z. But, yeah, the Euro did shift east a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Patience, young grasshoppers.. I believe it was Rainshadow years ago...that once said : "18z is the most inaccurate of the bunch" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 JOHN BOLARIS @JohnBolaris And Snow Lovers..I'm sorry I just don't see this storm giving out North & West suburbs any accumulating snow.Moisture band with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 GFS at 12z disagrees with this compared to 6 and 0z. But, yeah, the Euro did shift east a bit. Yea that is true. It hasnt had much consistency with the off runs further east and the peak runs further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Patience, young grasshoppers.. I believe it was Rainshadow years ago...that once said : "18z is the most inaccurate of the bunch" Unfortunately this isn't years ago, so that excuse won't work here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Was a bit surprised my self to see the euro shift east today I guess the most consistent piece of guidance for this storm has been the euro ensemble mean. I can not Imagine how it will feel to be a tv met if for say the models show everything including the kitchen sink tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I feel like there is a whip-lash developing while reading through this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Enough of the random quotes, plz....their all weenie jumping from 1 model to the next anyway.. 6PM tweet : It's out to sea. 11pm tweet: omg, it's going to be a blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Dude, the NAM first called it 12z Saturday with the further off-shore track.....while all the other models had an inland track. All models are now swinging towards the latest NAM with the more offshore solution. 18z GFS looks like 18Z NAM....12z Euro = further offshore track as well. NAM = pwning all again. Wake up and smell the coffee. (not targeted @ you....the nam haters in general ) The NAM rocks at 84 hours out....case closed. Uh... you're not being serious, right? The NAM, for the most part, sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Uh... you're not being serious, right? The NAM, for the most part, sucks. did your friend just tell you to say that, or have you followed it's accuracy for years ? ..all the other models are now trending towards it. so yeah ok, it sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Hope this lifts east and fast so there can be time for moisture return ahead of the next system diving out of the west. So, in other words, screw it, you'll get your fun during the winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 why do you get the sense of this from this forum after the 18z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Enough of the random quotes, plz....their all weenie jumping from 1 model to the next anyway.. 6PM tweet : It's out to sea. 11pm tweet: omg, it's going to be a blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 did your friend just tell you to say that, or have you followed it's accuracy for years ? ..all the other models are now trending towards it. so yeah ok, it sucks. I said "in general." In general, it does kind of suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stemwinder Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The big one was Nov 6-7, 1953. Low path was not that different than current, execpt it continued NW into N NJ. . Phl - 9", Millville 15" Lancaster 18"Wilmington 12", Lock Haven 30". Hey, I'm sorry I've been hibernating - essentially pulled out of the board last summer (2011). Personal and crazy stuff. **** Apologies especially to Ray, in Elko, for not replying for so long to his gracious mail - - *** I was in Jersey City in 1953- 17 yrs old. I do remember this snowstorm up there. Turned to rain after accumulating. Was quite a storm while it lasted. Storm pulled in warm air around NY area, but I was **jealous** to see a football game in Philly on TV that weekend, with piles of snow in the area surrounding the field. The other thing is someone mentioned that early snow can be a kiss of death. Don't know about the Philly area, but NYC got the first really good snow the following January - 1954 - following a snow drought of sorts since 1948 or 49. Best to all of you. Have discovered a group of mature people in the Philly thread. Jim Herbert - W. Windsor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 did your friend just tell you to say that, or have you followed it's accuracy for years ? ..all the other models are now trending towards it. so yeah ok, it sucks. More like every single met on this forum. I sense a 5 post restriction coming again. Also, lol at this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Best to all of you. Have discovered a group of mature people in the Philly thread. Try not to read the last page or so, you may change your mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stemwinder Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Try not to read the last page or so, you may change your mind Good to hear from you, Ray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Try not to read the last page or so, you may change your mind HAHAHAHA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WebBreaker63 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 He probably didn't see the 18Z runs before air-time. I wouldn't get too excited about a shift east until 0Z at least. Though, I would be happy to see it turn out to be right... the shore doesn't need any more of this. And inland areas don't need snow right now. AMEN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The inland areas definitely need the snow! But I would be willing to forgo it for the sake of the coast not getting beaten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 it's getting a bit out of hand in here, I started a banter thread for this threat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stemwinder Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 it's getting a bit out of hand in here, I started a banter thread for this threat... Glad to see someone else with a 62 degree temp at this time. Windy too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 at least within the first 24 hrs, it looks like the nam has less separation between the s/w. Thats all that should be taken from this run, despite the outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 at least within the first 24 hrs, it looks like the nam has less separation between the s/w. Thats all that should be taken from this run, despite the outcome. You would be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 did your friend just tell you to say that, or have you followed it's accuracy for years ? ..all the other models are now trending towards it. so yeah ok, it sucks. That is like saying the Cleveland Browns are a great football team after they win one game. Every model has a win once in a while just like a broken clock is right twice a day but just look at the verification scores...don't bring up subjective crap like some storm you "remember" or some story about one instance...there are times the JMA scored a coup also. What makes a model is consistency and being right more often on average over time, not nailing one storm. The NAM is a horrible model outside 48 hours and there is a plethora of evidence and data to support my statement. Either offer scientific evidence to back up your statement or knock it off with the NAM nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thedude11 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Why are many people bugging out over the 18z model suite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Granted, outside of 24 hrs, but this run is going to be way more phased than 18z was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Is it doing a left turn like Sandy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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