MGorse Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 To answer your other question, hopefully too much wind for snow to stick efficiently on limbs. Also all that wind would fracture the snowflakes, making them smaller than the size of volkswagens. I got a decent laugh out of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Could be trending towards a NJ coast snowstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Insert "00z runs are big tonight" comment here. Was thinking more along the lines of "GFS is right where we want it at this time" or the mutually exclusive "its the 18z, so throw it out" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 i say just play for the heck of it. Either way you will enjoy yourself. I know, you want one less person hitting the refresh button tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I know, you want one less person hitting the refresh button tomorrow. thats why i have vista, no refresh button for me lol. I honestly really havent paid much attention to this storm. If it snowed or missed by a thousand miles it would affect me the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 If you compare 18z yesterday vs today, big difference...even in the euro too. The lead s/w is weaker and the two s/w's are farther apart than Maria and Arnold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Overall this has been the general trend. It seems the low is going to beging bombing off the coast. 18z models showed it bombing too late. How insane would it be that we've all been worried about rain vs. snow when now its snow vs out to sea! Weather is so fun! It is kind of a rare modeling occurrence to predict a decent event and have it exit stage right. The euro and gfs both still have the nao switching. There is something afoot though because yesterday's runs most of the bombing was done south of our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 thats why i have vista, no refresh button for me lol. I honestly really havent paid much attention to this storm. If it snowed or missed by a thousand miles it would affect me the same. I just hope the winds and tides underperform for all the people still being affected by Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Well good news 18z RGEM looks like EURO, ton of precip in our area @ 48 HRS. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/3255_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 the NAM is a piece of crap outside of 24 hours and outside of severe weather. Dude, the NAM first called it 12z Saturday with the further off-shore track.....while all the other models had an inland track. All models are now swinging towards the latest NAM with the more offshore solution. 18z GFS looks like 18Z NAM....12z Euro = further offshore track as well. NAM = pwning all again. Wake up and smell the coffee. (not targeted @ you....the nam haters in general ) The NAM rocks at 84 hours out....case closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Well good news 18z RGEM looks like EURO, ton of precip in our area @ 48 HRS. http://www.weatherof...st/3255_100.gif The 48 hr rgem is like the nam at 84 hrs, just saying. Im not even sure how the rgem is verification wise. But if it is still the same as it was in the past, its not very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 This thread is borderline comical in terms of model hugging/bashing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Glenn says he wont make a call on snow till tonights models come through. CBS 3 says 1-3" for the Lehigh Valley , C-1" for Philly 6abc says wet flakes mixing in for philly. 1-3 through the lehigh valley, and 3-6 no. LV and poconos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Insert "00z runs are big tonight" comment here. Followed by the standard "the 12z run is going to be HUGE" line that will follow later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Glenn says he wont make a call on snow till tonights models come through. CBS 3 says 1-3" for the Lehigh Valley , C-1" for Philly Probably a good idea with all the shifting. While I figured the Philly area had a shot, it's just too early to lock anything in. There is definitely a trend to keep things separate in further east today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Ed Hanna, not mentioning much (Accuweather HQ is his puppeteer lol) although he said the NAM is the only model off the coast and that it has a 10% chance of happening like the NAM shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Ed Hanna, not mentioning much (Accuweather HQ is his puppeteer lol) although he said the NAM is the only model off the coast and that it has a 10% chance of happening like the NAM shows Latest GFS is even further off the coast. His opinion on that ? lemme guess..."let's wait till 0z". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Ed Hanna, not mentioning much (Accuweather HQ is his puppeteer lol) although he said the NAM is the only model off the coast and that it has a 10% chance of happening like the NAM shows He probably didn't see the 18Z runs before air-time. I wouldn't get too excited about a shift east until 0Z at least. Though, I would be happy to see it turn out to be right... the shore doesn't need any more of this. And inland areas don't need snow right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 18z GFS SE BIAS!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 It's the 18z gfs, but the way I look at if's not going to snow then it might as well be out to sea. Nobody needs high winds and rain now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 GFS have been backing off on the pressure of this storm. This might be lucky to break sub 990mb. Which would be good for coastal areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Yep, let's run with the 18z GFS since the GFS has been so consistent today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Yep, let's run with the 18z GFS since the GFS has been so consistent today! It went from a nor'easter to a mor'easter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Yep, let's run with the 18z GFS since the GFS has been so consistent today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 How bout some early track predictions of 0Z ..just for fun ? (intensity too if u wish) Here are mine : 0z NAM : at-least 20 miles closer to the NJ coast than 18z. 0z GFS : at-least 40 miles closer to the NJ coast than 18z. 0z Euro : same or very close to 12z track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Yep, let's run with the 18z GFS since the GFS has been so consistent today! they arent the only one saying that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 18Z NOGAPS is wayyyyyy out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 JOHN BOLARIS @JohnBolaris Been watching the models flip-flop with inconsistent run to run. However I do see some trending with most models and the king of models Euro JOHN BOLARIS @JohnBolaris Right now I"m thinking that this Mid-week Nor'easter will have it's greatest Impact across Long Island, and perhaps keep most of it's wrath Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 they arent the only one saying that lol Colin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Colin? lol well thats a given... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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