Heisy Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 What's your reasoning for the 18Z NAM being wrong? What errors r u noting? Take a look at 57 hours ralph, not bad, and thats with the NAM ots bias at this time range. I've been following models since I was 16 years old, thats 10 years. The NAM ALWAYS is like this at this time range. Every run will nudge towards EUROs OP run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 It would technically fit the bill for a blizzard by the true sense of the word, just wouldnt be our normal type of blizzard with high snowfall amounts we are kinda used to. But this would fit. It would probably be more close to an Alaskan blizzard warning. High winds with 3-4 inches of snow. See them up there a couple times a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 im curious on this. If this snowstorm occurs over the i95 corridor. The euro showed 1-2 inch snowfall rates. Would the criteria be met for a blizzard warning for the region? We have a high wind watch for gust to 50-55mph, wind is their, heavy snow for atleast 3 hours, if we get those deform bands the euro showed thats potentially doable. With those two combined you would have reduced visibility under .25 mile. Once upon a time there was a temperature requirement, which this storm has no chance of reaching. Otherwise, yes if the continuous gust requirement is met (35 mph for 3+ hours) and the visibility requirement is met (1/4 mile or less during the same period, caused by falling or blowing snow), then yes it would reach blizzard. I doubt it will happen. Very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 SnowGoose summed up my NAM observation, I just couldn't put it into meteorology terms lol "The NAM is notorious for failing to throw back enough precip into the cold sector of storms beyond 48 hours so its likely there would be more precipitation further west than that run shows". Also if you look at the surface temps you can see how its colder closer to the precip than it is away from it, obviously the dynamics of this storm. Going to need the heavy precip for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Im not sure if im a fan of this storm happening or not. Because its historically been shown, early season snow in phl is the kiss of death for the rest of the season. Plus, 60-70 degrees this weekend with snow or snow piles would be rather interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Well it seems to me the NAM is simply a case of a late phase, which is still certainly a possibility, though a low percentage one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 that is some sick vv's in or just above the snow growth region on the 12z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Im not sure if im a fan of this storm happening or not. Because its historically been shown, early season snow in phl is the kiss of death for the rest of the season. Plus, 60-70 degrees this weekend with snow or snow piles would be rather interesting. That's October snows and I doubt we see 70 this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Just wait until I pull out the CRAS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Im not sure if im a fan of this storm happening or not. Because its historically been shown, early season snow in phl is the kiss of death for the rest of the season. Plus, 60-70 degrees this weekend with snow or snow piles would be rather interesting. tom, october snow is the death its now november and clocks have moved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 the NAM is a piece of crap outside of 24 hours and outside of severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 tom, october snow is the death its now november and clocks have moved i think it carries over into november to. I remember the storm that dumped on t giving, not sure if it was 86 or 87 but, that was basically the largest snow we had that year. Ray, would know more than i would about that climo stuff. But i think i remember him posting something last year about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecaster Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 95-96 had a storm in november, jusy saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 i think it carries over into november to. I remember the storm that dumped on t giving, not sure if it was 86 or 87 but, that was basically the largest snow we had that year. Ray, would know more than i would about that climo stuff. But i think i remember him posting something last year about it. It depends on how you set the bar, 4" or more in November, only 1 of 5 ensuing winters reached normal snowfall. The one that did was the doozy in 1898-99; 3" or more its 2 of 7, beyond that it gets nebulous. To answer your other question, hopefully too much wind for snow to stick efficiently on limbs. Also all that wind would fracture the snowflakes, making them smaller than the size of volkswagens. I was half joking before the Euro run came in to ask how low I had to shoot for snow tomorrow, maybe all I have to do now is show up at the pro shop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 It depends on how you set the bar, 4" or more in November, only 1 of 5 ensuing winters reached normal snowfall. The one that did was the doozy in 1898-99; 3" or more its 2 of 7, beyond that it gets nebulous. To answer your other question, hopefully too much wind for snow to stick efficiently on limbs. Also all that wind would fracture the snowflakes, making them smaller than the size of volkswagens. Yea i knew their was a cut off to it or what not.... how about hybrids parked in elko? hahahaha, well are we just talking snow or accumulating snow for phl? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 i think it carries over into november to. I remember the storm that dumped on t giving, not sure if it was 86 or 87 but, that was basically the largest snow we had that year. Ray, would know more than i would about that climo stuff. But i think i remember him posting something last year about it. Thanksgiving Eve. 1989, then frigid December, then Winter over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Yea i knew their was a cut off to it or what not.... how about hybrids parked in elko? We'll work on it. That was an eastward jog on the 12z euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Thanksgiving Eve. 1989, then frigid December, then Winter over. Even back then the GFS had suppressed solutions until about 24 hours in.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 18z GFS further east than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 18z GFS further eastthan 12z Yup - just light precip in PHL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 18z GFS further east than 12z yea you can see its later on the phase with the northern stream energy diving down. Could be a trend or just a hiccup, who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Even back then the GFS had suppressed solutions until about 24 hours in.... what was the GFS like back in 1969 at the forecast desk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 yea you can see its later on the phase with the northern stream energy diving down. Could be a trend or just a hiccup, who knows. Insert "00z runs are big tonight" comment here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 yea you can see its later on the phase with the northern stream energy diving down. Could be a trend or just a hiccup, who knows. Not sure......maybe this ends up missing "wide right"..........who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Yea i knew their was a cut off to it or what not.... how about hybrids parked in elko? hahahaha, well are we just talking snow or accumulating snow for phl? You tell me after the 00z Euro run tonight. I'm trying to talk my wife into playing at Indian Springs tomorrow (par 70 about 6k), if not executive course Kresson (par 68, about 4.8k). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Insert "00z runs are big tonight" comment here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 what was the GFS like back in 1969 at the forecast desk? Still too suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 You tell me after the 00z Euro run tonight. I'm trying to talk my wife into playing at Indian Springs tomorrow (par 70 about 6k), if not executive course Kresson (par 68, about 4.8k). i say just play for the heck of it. Either way you will enjoy yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Overall this has been the general trend. It seems the low is going to beging bombing off the coast. 18z models showed it bombing too late. How insane would it be that we've all been worried about rain vs. snow when now its snow vs out to sea! Weather is so fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Yup - just light precip in PHL Could still be snow though, lots of low level dry air and surface temps aren't much above freezing. Would have trouble sticking of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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