Thunder Road Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Look what I started. Now we have to open up a banter thread. Anyway, I just went 1-3" along I-95 and 4-8" north & west for the peeps at home. I've seen marginal set-ups like this (fall and spring nor'easters without truly cold air) both bust (a la April 1, 2011 and December 5 ish, 2009) and overperform (like October 2011) but I always lean conservative on these types until we're real close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I'd like to see better consistency before I throw amounts out there. If anyone asks, I'll say... "There could be up to a few inches". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Fortunately Japanese Maples usually aren't 50-100 feet tall just looking at the course, the oaks, maples, and gums still have leaves...beech and ash are done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 would this qualify for athena? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I am going to call for a couple inches of snow or slightly more in the suburbs here. Always best to be conservative in November, and where melting would reduce totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 would this qualify for athena? Right or wrong on the naming idea itself, it would be a missed opportunity for TWC if not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I'd go 2-4 in the city/95...elevation gets you 4. 3-6 across the burbs north/west. 1-3 to the coast. My first (unofficial) call as of now. Give me a hug! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 http://youtu.be/jkRx3NZ-qp4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Right or wrong on the naming idea itself, it would be a missed opportunity for TWC if not. I think they'll wait for a slam dunk for their first effort so that they don't lose credibility. This one seems to have too much bust potential (i.e. possibly too warm in the northeast megalopolis or too little geographic snowfall coverage area) for them to risk their already controversial experiment on. A good test though for their new thingy. Wish we knew more about their naming criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 12z Euro ensemble on top of 12z Euro op and GFS op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I think they'll wait for a slam dunk for their first effort so that they don't lose credibility. This one seems to have too much bust potential (i.e. possibly too warm in the northeast megalopolis or too little geographic snowfall coverage area) for them to risk their already controversial experiment on. A good test though for their new thingy. Wish we knew more about their naming criteria. To be fair I think they said that they could go back after the storm and give it a name. Not that it really matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 To be fair I think they said that they could go back after the storm and give it a name. Not that it really matters. Hurricane center doesn't even do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 High Wind Watch in effect for Philadelphia: More information Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 12z Euro ensemble on top of 12z Euro op and GFS op Sexy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 FWIW, in some of the big snowstorms we've had in our region the NAM was always a bit out sea around this time frame. The model seems to misplace the low etc imo. I think it's right where we want it. 18z is colder fwiw, Can mets chime in to why the models trended way colder in the last 24 hrs? Something to do with the backside energy? 18z NAM is trying to hook it back on shore, not like it matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Hurricane center doesn't even do that. I could have swore I read somewhere that TWC could go back and name a storm....I could easily be mistaken. Or maybe it was they could name it during the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 18Z NAM swing and a miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Uh oh......sound the snow weenie panic alarms!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I could have swore I read somewhere that TWC could go back and name a storm....I could easily be mistaken. Or maybe it was they could name it during the storm. You may have, I'm just pointing out TWC's inconsistencies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Uh oh......sound the snow weenie panic alarms!!!! lol @ NAM. I don't know why you guys post it >24 hrs from an event. Stick to Euro and GFS with some UKM and you'll be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Right or wrong, the 18Z NAM verbatim is GREAT news for the Jersey shore compared to some other guidance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 lol @ NAM. I don't know why you guys post it >24 hrs from an event. Stick to Euro and GFS with some UKM and you'll be fine. Mike2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I liked it better when there were only like 2 posts a day here.. (bring the crickets back) New NAM's pullin a Sandy track. (or similar) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 lol @ NAM. I don't know why you guys post it >24 hrs from an event. Stick to Euro and GFS with some UKM and you'll be fine. I'm just trying to create havoc for you mods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 lol @ NAM. I don't know why you guys post it >24 hrs from an event. Stick to Euro and GFS with some UKM and you'll be fine. Just wait until I pull out the CRAS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 im curious on this. If this snowstorm occurs over the i95 corridor. The euro showed 1-2 inch snowfall rates. Would the criteria be met for a blizzard warning for the region? We have a high wind watch for gust to 50-55mph, wind is their, heavy snow for atleast 3 hours, if we get those deform bands the euro showed thats potentially doable. With those two combined you would have reduced visibility under .25 mile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Right or wrong, the 18Z NAM verbatim is GREAT news for the Jersey shore compared to some other guidance! This statement makes no sense. If wrong, the NAM is NOT great news for NJ. It is very likely wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 HPC not buying a philly snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 18z NAM pulls it back into Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 im curious on this. If this snowstorm occurs over the i95 corridor. The euro showed 1-2 inch snowfall rates. Would the criteria be met for a blizzard warning for the region? We have a high wind watch for gust to 50-55mph, wind is their, heavy snow for atleast 3 hours, if we get those deform bands the euro showed thats potentially doable. With those two combined you would have reduced visibility under .25 mile. It would technically fit the bill for a blizzard by the true sense of the word, just wouldnt be our normal type of blizzard with high snowfall amounts we are kinda used to. But this would fit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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