phlwx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I'm now left wondering if consensus will slowly start shifting everything slowly eastward taking the best dynamics out of our area and off the coast instead. Hmm..... GFS moved west. It's not over yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 The big one was Nov 6-7, 1953. Low path was not that different than current, execpt it continued NW into N NJ. . Phl - 9", Millville 15" Lancaster 18"Wilmington 12", Lock Haven 30". Also note that TTN had 4" and Newark had 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Unless people weren't being honest, from what everyone said there was an earlier peak this year than last, and this storm is later, so no matter what it wouldn't have been "as bad". Just took this pic out my window. Most of the bigger older trees out in the distance have lost their leaves, but some of the smaller trees, including this Japanese red maple still have ALL of their leaves on it. But overall, I would agree that there was an earlier peak this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Just took this pic out my window. Most of the bigger older trees out in the distance have lost their leaves, but some of the smaller trees, including this Japanese red maple still have ALL of their leaves on it. But overall, I would agree that there was an earlier peak this year. Fortunately Japanese Maples usually aren't 50-100 feet tall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I'm now left wondering if consensus will slowly start shifting everything slowly eastward taking the best dynamics out of our area and off the coast instead. Hmm..... There will probably be some shifts one way or another. My biggest concern is trying to figure out where the band will set up. It's not like everyone who has measurable QPF and below 0c 850 temps will have snow. This will be dynamically driven. Big bust potential here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Was that 8-12" someone mentioned for philly at 10:1 ratio or a 5:1? I'm thinking areas just nw of i-95 probably see ratios around 6:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I'm beginning to get cautiously optimistic that we may see accumulating snow here in Villanova, where I'm at 450-60ft or so. The pattern supports a strong coastal low, and the antecedent airmass will be chilly; models seem to be converging on 850's generally remaining at or below 0c from PHL westward. My main concern at this point is where exactly does bombogenesis occur, which will determine the axis of the deformation / CCB banding. Light precip isn't going to cut it at this time of year. We'll nee several hours of 25 dbz+ echos to pencil in some accum I think, and this is for here I'm talking. PHL center city I'm skeptical of anything more than a minor slushy accum but we'll see if the Euro holds serve over the next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 JMA puts a nice blog of 1.25-1.50 in Philly, 500mb looks pretty similar to EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Big bust potential here. Big weenie letdown potential here. Time to lean on the side of caution, and proceed from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I wonder how the local news will play this tonight. All the forecasts up to now were all rain, I posted euro on my facebook & every1 was kind of mocking me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 The Highzenberg storm, eh? So what you're saying is...there might be some uncertainty with this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Just took this pic out my window. Most of the bigger older trees out in the distance have lost their leaves, but some of the smaller trees, including this Japanese red maple still have ALL of their leaves on it. But overall, I would agree that there was an earlier peak this year. Yeah I'd say peak was earlier by about 5 days this year. After Sandy came through, we went from about 75% leafed to 75% bare trees. All we've got left are the stubborn brown oak leaves that often take until Thanksgiving to complete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Wait, it's going to snow here Wed? What? I thought it was going to be rain. Then 70s this weekend. What is going on! Posts like this belong in NYC forum, thanks Rib. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Fortunately Japanese Maples usually aren't 50-100 feet tall ha ha ha Exactly. But this particular tree is pretty big for a Japanese Maple though. Former owners must have planted this. I hear they are expensive. Glad it survived Sandy!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Briefing #4 is out https://dl.dropbox.com/u/68533304/StormBriefing4.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Ray, I think the 144hrs without power has skewed my days / mind of when peak was compared to last season, sorry if I was in error . Seeing the pic's of the beaches has me concerned for them with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 A 3-6" heavy slop snow would do significant tree damage even with little to no leaves. It's a catch 22 - little wind and a lot of buildup on trees and power lines, alot of wind means less snow buildup but more stress to tree limbs. I'm not putting my generator away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Nary a mention of snow in the cities with the latest briefing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Posted on Facebook Find this interesting AF Reserve Hurricane Hunters "Our weather heroes are ramping up to fly into the Nor'Easter tomorrow. Stay tuned to see read how it went." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 There will probably be some shifts one way or another. My biggest concern is trying to figure out where the band will set up. It's not like everyone who has measurable QPF and below 0c 850 temps will have snow. This will be dynamically driven. Big bust potential here. Yup. Forecasting is fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 The Highzenberg storm, eh? So what you're saying is...there might be some uncertainty with this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Nary a mention of snow in the cities with the latest briefing. 1. Briefing package was issued prior to the latest Euro run (upon which most of the latest potential-for-snow-in-the-cities discussion is based) 2. We all know that Mt. Holly will not prematurely sound the alarms, but will issue an intermediate update (prior to the next scheduled briefing package) if conditions warrant--i.e. the 0z models/ensembles begin to converge on a solution including the NAM, SREF, etc. 3. They may just be waiting for a 2:30 am play-by-play of tonights 0z Euro by Tom . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I'd go 2-4 in the city/95...elevation gets you 4. 3-6 across the burbs north/west. 1-3 to the coast. My first (unofficial) call as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 The Highzenberg storm, eh? So what you're saying is...there might be some uncertainty with this one? Well, in principle yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Fortunately Japanese Maples usually aren't 50-100 feet tall Looking out my window I see three oak trees, about 6+ stories tall, with almost completely green leaves. Other than the fruit trees they seem to be the last to get the memo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Well, in principle yes. Groooooaaaaaaaaaannnnnnnnn. Re: the AF recon, I'm surprised. I'm not seeing surface cyclogenesis on the NAM/GFS until about 00Z Wednesday. What will they be sampling? Downstream data offshore to ingest into model runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Yup. Forecasting is fun. Love this ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 The Highzenberg storm, eh? So what you're saying is...there might be some uncertainty with this one? Ba-dum-bump (cymbal crash)You can pinpoint precisely where it snows but there's no way to know how much will fall. Otherwise, you can know precisely how much will fall but there's no way to know where it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 The beaches will not be very..... "Sandy" after this one... YYYYEEEEEEEEEEAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 ( •_•) ( •_•)>⌐■-■ (⌐■_■) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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