Rib Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 I have to admit, the 12z GFS does give the PHL area a shot at seeing their first snowflakes but this is the last thing any of us need after Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 The 12z GFS is impressive that's for sure. 984mb just south of Long Island @ hr 108. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Let's just hope that if a stall is persistent in the modeling, it stays to the NE of the Jersey shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted November 3, 2012 Author Share Posted November 3, 2012 I don't want to shovel this early in the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Let's just hope that if a stall is persistent in the modeling, it stays to the NE of the Jersey shore. As more intense as the current GFS is, the phasing is slightly slower than the previous euro and thus gives the low 980s nor'easter a chance to get east of us before slowing down. Still would be at least two high tide cycles of problems not to mention the wind, rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted November 3, 2012 Author Share Posted November 3, 2012 As more intense as the current GFS is, the phasing is slightly slower than the previous euro and thus gives the low 980s nor'easter a chance to get east of us before slowing down. Still would be at least two high tide cycles of problems not to mention the wind, rain. If we get warm air in the mid levels but the lower levels stay cold, IT could happen. You know what I'm talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 As more intense as the current GFS is, the phasing is slightly slower than the previous euro and thus gives the low 980s nor'easter a chance to get east of us before slowing down. Still would be at least two high tide cycles of problems not to mention the wind, rain. It's not a good sing that it trended towards a more wrapped up farther west solution than the earlier runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Whoever gets under the deform band could make out snow wise. Just feel bad for coastal areas with wind rain and cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Either the NAM is out to sea....or is holding back, waiting for more energy / bigger storm. NAM at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 The NAM is totally deamplified and wouldn't result in any sort of storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 If we get warm air in the mid levels but the lower levels stay cold, IT could happen. You know what I'm talking about. Yes, The 12z GFS brings in warm air above 925mb. It could happen tomorrow, eh make that Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Whoever gets under the deform band could make out snow wise. Just feel bad for coastal areas with wind rain and cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 The NAM is totally deamplified and wouldn't result in any sort of storm. I'd tend to agree with the 500 vort squashin it. NAM's been awesome all year otherwise, even with Sandy. Kinda surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Wow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 I'd tend to agree with the 500 vort squashin it. NAM's been awesome all year otherwise, even with Sandy. Kinda surprising. not really. Anyone holding onto the 84 hour NAM better have a very firm grip, because it's likely that you'll get whip-sawed as it vacillates back and forth until hour 48 and in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Either the NAM is out to sea....or is holding back, waiting for more energy / bigger storm. NAM at 84 NAM stinks after 60hrs. It used to be 48, but it's improved a bit in the last few years. 84hrs is still clearly past it's usable range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 78 on euro deep trough starting to go neg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 90 is a beaut. Low by Sc "1004mb. Neg tilt ongoing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Canadian 109 hours 112 hours 115 hours 118 hours 120 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 78 on euro deep trough starting to go neg. deja vu all over again. GFS coming into line with Euro too. Will be interesting to see what the ensemble members of the GFS and Euro show later for 12z. As Tony pointed out earlier, the big issue now may be not IF this will occur, but how strong and where the phase/stall/slowdown occurs. Just where all that occurs will have a huge impact on further beach erosion along Jersey. I frankly don't think anyone outside the Pocono's and far NW Jersey get any appreciable snow from this, so for me, the concentration going forward is strength, placement and resultant coastal flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 994@ 102 closed off @ h5 towards oh/ Indiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Stalls @ AC to Belmar. @ 108-126. Coastal areas torched, interior apps snow. I'm golfing, so it's no Tombo pbp. Sorry folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Stalls @ AC to Belmar. @ 108-126. Coastal areas torched, interior apps snow. I'm golfing, so it's no Tombo pbp. Sorry folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Yeah looks warm, weatherfella mentioned this, the pattern eerily reminds me of Nov 1995, lots of closed off lows.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Yeah watching some of the other regions pbp as well...thanks...geezus this would be a huge setback to recovery efforts....not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Euro is bad for recovery efforts and snow weenies.......hard to vote against it right now though based on prior performance. Another 5 days to track things though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 All the models even the euro are waffling right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 All the models even the euro are waffling right now. ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Lowest I see is 984 on euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 All the models even the euro are waffling right now. Not really, and what do you expect its 5 days out it happens with every storm. Sometimes at this point in the ball game theres models that dont even show a storm. Most if not all the models are showing some type of low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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