Bob Chill Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I guess we're in storm mode or I'd weenie you. Last year most did not come west but this is a new year so who knows. Yea, I was referencing mostly the last couple years. So tough to nail these things. Our block is breaking down and it shows. A little means a lot. Of course I'm totally wishcasting the shift back NW but honestly, I think the odds favor it at least. How much is comes back? Who knows. Probably enough to stick us in the warm sector rain, dryslot over SNE, and jackpot Davis WV. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I don't know if it's actually strange or not, but it seems kind of odd to me that my first frost was also a hard freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Low of 9.9 degrees this morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Since I'm gonna be NW of Philly on Wednesday night/Thursday...I'm gonna go ahead and get ready to see some snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 A couple of statements come to mind right now. We are right where we want to be with the 12z gfs! I don't want to be in the bullseye at this stage anyway. NW trend is our friend. Rates will overcome bl. Sun angle is the same as late January. Deform band always sets up 50 miles NW of what the models say at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 A couple of statements come to mind right now. We are right where we want to be with the 12z gfs! I don't want to be in the bullseye at this stage anyway. NW trend is our friend. Rates will overcome bl. Sun angle is the same as late January. Deform band always sets up 50 miles NW of what the models say at this stage. #weeniepost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Everything dies baby thats a fact, but maybe everything that dies, someday comes back #faithintheflakes Thanks bruce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 A couple of statements come to mind right now. We are right where we want to be with the 12z gfs! I don't want to be in the bullseye at this stage anyway. NW trend is our friend. Rates will overcome bl. Sun angle is the same as late January. Deform band always sets up 50 miles NW of what the models say at this stage. You da man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 There are going to be more hallucinations tomorrow than at a grateful dead concert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 There are going to be more hallucinations tomorrow than at a grateful dead concert. Especially since this thing looks like it will back in from the east ala Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Especially since this thing looks like it will back in from the east ala Sandy. Least it nowcasted to the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 So we have the GGEM and a few SREF members in our camp? I'd feel quite a bit better with the Euro on our side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 So we have the GGEM and a few SREF members in our camp? I'd feel quite a bit better with the Euro on our side. You and me both. The nam is almost on our side except for the 39 to 40 degree temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 So we have the GGEM and a few SREF members in our camp? I'd feel quite a bit better with the Euro on our side. The 1-2" from GFS NAM I would take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 You and me both. The nam is almost on our side except for the 39 to 40 degree temps. BL worries me with some unimpressive precip over our head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The 1-2" from GFS NAM I would take. I can buy the .1-.2" liquid, but I don't think that would accumulate to 1-2". As Wes and others have said several times, you need high rates to get accumulation in these marginal temp events. The GFS and NAM paint a picture of several hours of light precip, which would probably be snow, occasionally mixed with rain/drizzle, and probably doesn't accumulate more than a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 You and me both. The nam is almost on our side except for the 39 to 40 degree temps. Sun angle! Rates! Initialization errors! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I can buy the .1-.2" liquid, but I don't think that would accumulate to 1-2". As Wes and others have said several times, you need high rates to get accumulation in these marginal temp events. The GFS and NAM paint a picture of several hours of light precip, which would probably be snow, occasionally mixed with rain/drizzle, and probably doesn't accumulate more than a dusting. The big ? is if/where the deform sets up. Would have to think it's within 75 miles of dc. Prob worth the drive if it isn't in our back yard. Right now the NAM thinks it will be over my mom's house in cambridge. Only 70 miles or so as a crow flies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The big ? is if/where the deform sets up. Would have to think it's within 75 miles of dc. Prob worth the drive if it isn't in our back yard. I bought a bolt bus ticket to Philly just in case today....... 15 bucks is worth it for a Novie surprise...... holding out to see if I can just hold up at a local watering hole however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I can buy the .1-.2" liquid, but I don't think that would accumulate to 1-2". As Wes and others have said several times, you need high rates to get accumulation in these marginal temp events. The GFS and NAM paint a picture of several hours of light precip, which would probably be snow, occasionally mixed with rain/drizzle, and probably doesn't accumulate more than a dusting. Totally agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Probably gonna see a few of these types of pics later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Probably gonna see a few of these types of pics later Welcome to winter 2011-2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I'm tempted to wildly vacillate with each model run at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Probably gonna see a few of these types of pics later Or these Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 If the euro still sucks and the 18z and 0z suite blow then we're still good. Nowcasting will saves us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 We don't need to look at the GFS Ensemble anymore for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Sun angle! Rates! Initialization errors! Sun angle is equivalent to mid February, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Sun angle is equivalent to mid February, correct? Last week of Jan +/- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Author Share Posted November 6, 2012 It's CRAS time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 It's CRAS time! I see your CRAS and raise one JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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