Bob Chill Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 FWIW, my idea of accum around here is much lower than the Euro had of course. I'm still not convinced we're out of it in DC. I purposefully didn't mention any amounts as it could be .1" or a few (1-3").. that's sort of my range. I'm fairly confident that the gfs is going to continue to move the precip shield in our direction. This type of developing system is tough on the nam even though we're entering its wheelhouse now. It's a volatile setup and there is definitely going to be A LOT of radar hallucinations on Tues night and Wed. I have a hunch that wherever the heaviest axis of precip is on the models with tomorrow's 12z runs it will end up maybe 30-50 miles to the NW. IIRC- many systems like this end up verifying in similar fashion. I might be out to lunch though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I'm fairly confident that the gfs is going to continue to move the precip shield in our direction. This type of developing system is tough on the nam even though we're entering its wheelhouse now. It's a volatile setup and there is definitely going to be A LOT of radar hallucinations on Tues night and Wed. I have a hunch that wherever the heaviest axis of precip is on the models with tomorrow's 12z runs it will end up maybe 30-50 miles to the NW. IIRC- many systems like this end up verifying in similar fashion. I might be out to lunch though. Tues night/wed? I thought it was wed night into thurs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Author Share Posted November 5, 2012 If you want to weenie out a bit hope for svr to produce in TX this eve. Hat tip to Srain on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Tues night/wed? I thought it was wed night into thurs? I will be the pre-game hallucinations. We'll see it coming....and coming...then the alarms are sounding...models are wrong! Models are wrong! And then it will magically drift off the coast and out to sea just like it was supposed to do (if you believe the gfs). Since it's a miller a type event we get to watch all the juicy precip stroll across the SE with convection firing a bit. All those nice juicy oranges and reds. Then it turns the corner and starts HEADING RIGHT FOR US! Then it looks really good as the low forms over the gulfstream. I'm waiting for the first weenie to say "this looks a lot like the 87 Vet day storm!". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Its hard to believe the Euro got whipped like that L. O. Mother-effing L. Post less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 L. O. Mother-effing L. Post less. Except every single person after me said the same thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 This area sucks at winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Except every single person after me said the same thing? Pretty sure they all just told you to wait until after verification before calling one model or the other a victor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Pretty sure they all just told you to wait until after verification before calling one model or the other a victor. I just counted four people in there that all declared a fail, "bus crash", "what storm?", etc......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I just counted four people in there that all declared a fail, "bus crash", "what storm?", etc......... Interesting how they all mentioned how the Euro failed. Oh wait, they didn't. Post less. Edit: I see Yorkpa25 is on your side... yeah he needs to post less, too. There's a good reason why he's on the 5 ppd list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 This area sucks at winter. What's funny is that we are actually closer to summer than winter. Halloween was last week and already weenie suicides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I'm glad the euro appears to have been wrong. I was getting sick of all the hype after it nailed sandy at a long lead. My goodness there are some unrealistic expectations when it comes to longer lead modeling. Especially with complicated sw's needing to phase and time with the flow. The euro is an excellent model. And so is the GFS. There's nothing more to discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Author Share Posted November 5, 2012 I'm glad the euro appears to have been wrong. I was getting sick of all the hype after it nailed sandy at a long lead. My goodness there are some unrealistic expectations when it comes to longer lead modeling. Especially with complicated sw's needing to phase and time with the flow. The euro is an excellent model. And so is the GFS. There's nothing more to discuss. Yeah, that's one good thing which would come from it. Plus this would mark (at least) the start of the third winter in a row with the euro liking phantom snowstorms.. good to figure that out now rather than when it counts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I'm glad the euro appears to have been wrong. I was getting sick of all the hype after it nailed sandy at a long lead. My goodness there are some unrealistic expectations when it comes to longer lead modeling. Especially with complicated sw's needing to phase and time with the flow. The euro is an excellent model. And so is the GFS. There's nothing more to discuss. Except possibly how to ban yorkpa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 It's amazing how one run can totally change people's thoughts on the storm without the least bit of actual analysis. Thanks for model hugging, everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Author Share Posted November 5, 2012 It's amazing how one run can totally change people's thoughts on the storm without the least bit of actual analysis. Thanks for model hugging, everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Image Whatever that is, it ain't showing up on my computer EDIT: I quoted and copied the image link... Woooo ponies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Author Share Posted November 5, 2012 Whatever that is, it ain't showing up on my computer hmm http://images6.fanpop.com/image/photos/32400000/Vectors-of-my-Ponies-my-little-pony-friendship-is-magic-32487586-850-939.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Yeah, that's one good thing which would come from it. Plus this would mark (at least) the start of the third winter in a row with the euro liking phantom snowstorms.. good to figure that out now rather than when it counts. Euro sucks with split flow nina type winters. But then again, trying to nail the timing of 2 vorts in fast flow with no block is prone to unlimited errors regardless of the model. Any of the major models (or even the JMA) is going to get one right one of these times but it's not because it's a better model. The timing will simply work out and make it look good. It's worth bringing up why 09-10 was so well modeled. Active stj and hl blocking is exponentially easier to calculate and predict. It has nothing to do with models getting better (or seemingly worse the last couple years). It's much easier to get 1+1=2 right than x = -(C/k)e^(-kt) + Et + C/k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Author Share Posted November 5, 2012 Whatever that is, it ain't showing up on my computer EDIT: I quoted and copied the image link... Woooo ponies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Except possibly how to ban yorkpa. Winning post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Yeah, that's one good thing which would come from it. Plus this would mark (at least) the start of the third winter in a row with the euro liking phantom snowstorms.. good to figure that out now rather than when it counts. It will correct itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Winning post. Yea no kidding. Crapping up a pinned storm thread with that garbage is disrespectful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 The trouble with forecasting a storm like this one with two streams of flow without the mega block of 2009-2010 is that the Euro does like to sometimes spin up storms. It did the same thing last year. BY contrast, the GFS tends to be too flat at time and with really big storms you often see it trend north and west. Last night, each model was playing to its weakness so there was no way to tell which was right. We still don't know for sure but I getting a big dumper takes perfect timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Yea no kidding. Crapping up a pinned storm thread with that garbage is disrespectful. That entire last page discussing the 18z(lol) was garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Author Share Posted November 5, 2012 The trouble with forecasting a storm like this one with two streams of flow without the mega block of 2009-2010 is that the Euro does like to sometimes spin up storms. It did the same thing last year. BY contrast, the GFS tends to be too flat at time and with really big storms you often see it trend north and west. Last night, each model was playing to its weakness so there was no way to tell which was right. We still don't know for sure but I getting a big dumper takes perfect timing. Or lots of Taco Bell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 That entire last page discussing the 18z(lol) was garbage. Yup. Hopefully this doesn't drag on all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Or lots of Taco Bell Lol, I wondered about using the word dumper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Or lots of Taco Bell Wes prefers prune juice. I Wes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Author Share Posted November 5, 2012 Lol, I wondered about using the word dumper. You should make it snow. November sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.