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November obs and banter


Ian

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I am really starting not to like Brett Anderson:

http://www.accuweath...ristmas/2169419

I don't think I'll sweat the Euro weeklies given that the Euro operational at about 8 days is literally like throwing darts at a dart board. I can't wait to see its next 10 day forecast. GFS too. I think this guy nailed it when he wrote that the models are struggling with the long term. Going back and forth daily does seem like struggling.

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I don't think I'll sweat the Euro weeklies given that the Euro operational at about 8 days is literally like throwing darts at a dart board. I can't wait to see its next 10 day forecast. GFS too. I think this guy nailed it when he wrote that the models are struggling with the long term. Going back and forth daily does seem like struggling.

I don't think they're struggling bad at all through day 8-10. We have no blocking in the right place and no signs of it suddenly getting better. Especially with the nao. So we are left with a progressive pattern full of pac air, cutters, and cold fronts that offer brief cool downs. Nothing has shown a cold pattern with staying power anytime soon. Different variations of the lw features but the sensible weather has been similar run to run.

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Scientific American's December issue has an interesting article about arctic sea ice melt and the AO/NAO. Basically, increased sea ice melt in summer leads to an unstable/weak polar vortex in the following winter, favoring a -AO/-NAO and thus colder/snowier winters for us. Maybe at some point I'll read the actual journal article, because some folks in my department have studied the southern hemisphere PV and (if memory serves) suggested the Antarctic PV will get STRONGER with climate change (and thus slow the rate of ozone hole repair).

And if that makes you happy, you'll be delighted to know it looks like the arctic ocean may be ice-free in summer by 2020 :flood:

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Idle your SUVs for snow!

LOL- or eat lotsa beans.

First it was the MJO buzz, then the SSW, then the "Eurasian snowcover index" (ESI), and now we go all in for AGW. As long as it snows I'll root for anything except the cowboys winning. I'll sacrifice and entire winter's snow for the cowboys to go 0-16.

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LOL- or eat lotsa beans.

First it was the MJO buzz, then the SSW, then the "Eurasian snowcover index" (ESI), and now we go all in for AGW. As long as it snows I'll root for anything except the cowboys winning. I'll sacrifice and entire winter's snow for the cowboys to go 0-16.

Something we all can agree on :santa:

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I don't think they're struggling bad at all through day 8-10. We have no blocking in the right place and no signs of it suddenly getting better. Especially with the nao. So we are left with a progressive pattern full of pac air, cutters, and cold fronts that offer brief cool downs. Nothing has shown a cold pattern with staying power anytime soon. Different variations of the lw features but the sensible weather has been similar run to run.

I have to disagree there. It's pretty easy to just start posting those images from days 8-10 from one run to the next. They may get some consistency from run to run soon, but they sure haven't had it this week. The Euro in particular has been a roller coaster this week. The ensembles have been more consistent, but even there, once you get out in time, they've been volatile.

post-178-0-49079300-1354300108_thumb.jpg

post-178-0-11663100-1354300127_thumb.jpg

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I'm thinking of starting a Christmas wx contest in a few days (open the 5-7th, close the 10-12th?). Ideas for what to include:

High/Lo temps at 4 airports

Daily precip

Total snowfall in the week of 20-27th December

Official White Christmas: yes/no

Thoughts? Not sure how to effectively combine those to make the scoring relatively equitable...

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LOL- or eat lotsa beans.

First it was the MJO buzz, then the SSW, then the "Eurasian snowcover index" (ESI), and now we go all in for AGW. As long as it snows I'll root for anything except the cowboys winning. I'll sacrifice an entire winter's snow for the Steelers cowboys to go 0-16.

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