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November obs and banter


Ian

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The -PNA is going to screw things up. I know it is the GFS but it seems to be the ever present feature on every run through 384. It never goes away. The -NAO seems like it will just serve to keep us from torching. I feel like December is not going to be all that great for us and we may look back at the deep -NAO/ -AO on the 31st and say "if only the Pacific would have cooperated" and this great pattern will have been wasted. But I know nothing so I put this in the banter post.

it's a bit early but i'd be more interested in the pattern of recent and modeled into the next week or so as a "sign" than what we saw earlier with coastals etc. certainly no indication yet that we're embarking on a great winter imo. cold and dry ftw.

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it's a bit early but i'd be more interested in the pattern of recent and modeled into the next week or so as a "sign" than what we saw earlier with coastals etc. certainly no indication yet that we're embarking on a great winter imo. cold and dry ftw.

I'm on the cold and dry train. Philly-north will do pretty well, and I think New England will be the big winners, even if you just take averages into account.

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Looking ahead to the early week storm...

BUFKIT soundings look warm in the low levels out here around KCHO/KSHD/Woodstock. Light rain possibly transitioning to a light wintry mix or light snow (little or no accumulation) looks to be the best call out this way I think. Obviously the mostly uninhabited higher elevations (Skyline Drive, etc) would see a bit more frozen precip.

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Just took the dogs for a long walk around the neighborhood. Kind of enjoyed the winter-feel to the air.

For the mid-week storm, I'd just be happy with snow falling out of the sky, even if it doesn't stick. Sick of these events, where we're so close to something but end up with cold rain or nothing at all. Although, I suppose we need the rain.

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Sky condition is clear, so right off the bat, answer is no wink.png

I was out yesterday morning and did see a few flakes spitting around up here. Not much and I had to catch them at the right time.

Woke this morning to a temp of 28 and heavy frost on most cars outside. Me personally I am enjoying my garage for a second year.

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