yoda Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 FWIW, Doug Hill will be issuing his winter outlook sometime this hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Still a -5.5" departure for yearly precip at DCA. BWI and IAD are also down, but not by that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 FWIW, Doug Hill will be issuing his winter outlook sometime this hour Knowing him im guessing 9" for DC max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 I remember now. After clicking "Loop," you have to click the "Standard Version," then it can be bookmarked. I just started using Dolphin browser on my Droid2. It's been pretty solid so far. Not sure if it will help in this case though, but maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Doug Hill discussing NAO phases... snowfall and temps slightly below normal... but still chance of a nor'easter Immediate DC region was in 10 to 18 swath... but Hill mentioned that higher total was more for western portion of swath towards BR. Swaths of forecasted snow for the winter were tiered NE to SW... still no matter where you are in area still believes slightly below normal snow for all. Its on WJLA's weather website now fyi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 How can you forecast anything other than slightly above or slightly below normal? No strong signals to be found anywhere. I have a hunch that we get a good pasting with a coastal. You can't just say this fall is a fluke and dismiss it. This is probably the only thing that can make forecasts bust low too. One widespread 8-12" and it changes everything. Guidance is already pointing towards another amplified pattern before mid month. Still too early for snow in these parts but I really like what keeps reappearing. Anything but a dominant flat pac zonal please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Doug Hill discussing NAO phases... snowfall and temps slightly below normal... but still chance of a nor'easter Immediate DC region was in 10 to 18 swath... but Hill mentioned that higher total was more for western portion of swath towards BR. Swaths of forecasted snow for the winter were tiered NE to SW... still no matter where you are in area still believes slightly below normal snow for all. Its on WJLA's weather website now fyi No matter what - whether for seasonal forecasts or individual storm calls - the locals always do the NW-SE thing. Happens where I grew up near Philly, too. I understand it to a large degree, and I suppose it's the safe call, but it always seems like, no matter what, local weather people expect there to be more snow north and west every single freaking time. BTW...I'm not minding the -NAO looks that ORH and Coastal were talking about. IMO, the biggest thing we can hope for in that situation is that we get a STJ disturbance or two with blocking and some cold. I see this being a northern stream-dominated winter once again, so we need to take advantage of those times when the STJ plays ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Doug Hill discussing NAO phases... snowfall and temps slightly below normal... but still chance of a nor'easter Immediate DC region was in 10 to 18 swath... but Hill mentioned that higher total was more for western portion of swath towards BR. Swaths of forecasted snow for the winter were tiered NE to SW... still no matter where you are in area still believes slightly below normal snow for all. Its on WJLA's weather website now fyi Does anyone really care what the former PG cop with no Met degree thinks? I'm sure any skill brought to that forecast came from Ryan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Northern lights reported across NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 How can you forecast anything other than slightly above or slightly below normal? No strong signals to be found anywhere. I have a hunch that we get a good pasting with a coastal. You can't just say this fall is a fluke and dismiss it. This is probably the only thing that can make forecasts bust low too. One widespread 8-12" and it changes everything. Guidance is already pointing towards another amplified pattern before mid month. Still too early for snow in these parts but I really like what keeps reappearing. Anything but a dominant flat pac zonal please. If you buy into the atmosphere has a memory thing then any coastal that gives us snow might come early in the season. I can't see this pattern lasting all winter. My WAG is a decent early Dec snow during a volatile period of pattern changing until a cold/dry pattern sets up for Jan/Feb. when that happens we will get the occasional 2-4" event to get near climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Coldest morning so far this season, 22 degrees and frosty. Nice string of days coming up considering the time of year....no precip in the 7 day forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 25F IMBY this morning. Beautiful out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 If you buy into the atmosphere has a memory thing then any coastal that gives us snow might come early in the season. I can't see this pattern lasting all winter. My WAG is a decent early Dec snow during a volatile period of pattern changing until a cold/dry pattern sets up for Jan/Feb. when that happens we will get the occasional 2-4" event to get near climo. I dont really buy into the memory thing irt to storms and their tracks. That's always a function of the long wave pattern. But there is a pattern there. The only way we get coastals and miller A's us when we have an amplified pattern and it usually requires blocking. We are seeing a lot of that this fall. Good stuff. HM and Coastal are digging the Aleutian ridge this year and its potential down stream effects. Last year we had an ak vortex from hell. Damn thing was parked for what seemed like forever. If the ridging parks itself it will at least provide opportunity. Can't ask for more. If it parks in December then the odds of a cool month just went up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 I dont really buy into the memory thing irt to storms and their tracks. That's always a function of the long wave pattern. But there is a pattern there. The only way we get coastals and miller A's us when we have an amplified pattern and it usually requires blocking. We are seeing a lot of that this fall. Good stuff. HM and Coastal are digging the Aleutian ridge this year and its potential down stream effects. Last year we had an ak vortex from hell. Damn thing was parked for what seemed like forever. If the ridging parks itself it will at least provide opportunity. Can't ask for more. If it parks in December then the odds of a cool month just went up. Yes they would, the Aleutian Ridge does help us indeed. Sent you a PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Lovely November day here. 36 and overcast at noon. Gets me excited about winter. Certainly been below normal for the month so far (out here). Probably the same for most areas in the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 can't complain about this wx. Comfy for a big guy like me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 after those 100 degree days this summer, this weather is pretty refreshing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Gonna be another frosty one. Already at 37.6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 after those 100 degree days this summer, this weather is pretty refreshing. Yup, glad to have a cooler than normal month for a change (so far at least). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Wasn't this supposed to be a warm-up? It is pretty chilly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Lwx said low of 38. Its 33 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 I'm going to ask santa to update my weathergeek equipement this year. Right now I use a simple wired thermo with LCD. My gauge is old and glass. It's accurate but honestly I've stopped using it. I'm thinking about getting a wireless temp/gauge setup. Signal range is no issue. I have a great spot just outside my house so it would be less than 75'. I'm leaning towards this one: http://www.amazon.co...less rain gauge Any other recommendations? I'm very value oriented with everything I buy. Bang for the buck and I don't need the latest and greatest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Made it down to 27F before the clouds rolled in last night. That's a shame, because we probably were headed to our coldest temp of the season had it remained clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Another lovely day here in Winchester. Currently 34 and cloudy. Feels down right balmy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 I'm going to ask santa to update my weathergeek equipement this year. Right now I use a simple wired thermo with LCD. My gauge is old and glass. It's accurate but honestly I've stopped using it. I'm thinking about getting a wireless temp/gauge setup. Signal range is no issue. I have a great spot just outside my house so it would be less than 75'. I'm leaning towards this one: http://www.amazon.co...less rain gauge Any other recommendations? I'm very value oriented with everything I buy. Bang for the buck and I don't need the latest and greatest. I have been thinking about an inexpensive weather station for the house. Anybody heard of or have this one? http://www.globalind...CFcXb4Aodc2YAWg Or this one? http://www.amazon.com/Ambient-Weather-WS-1090-Wireless-Station/dp/B0044P7CUI/ref=pd_sim_sbs_hi_2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 <snipped> MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1208 PM EST THU NOV 15 2012 VALID NOV 15/1200 UTC THRU NOV 19/0000 UTC ENERGY CLOSING OFF IN THE SOUTHEAST =================================== PREFERENCE: 12Z NAM/00Z ECMWF COMPROMISE WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THE APEX OF A NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE (WITH 500 HPA POSITIVE ANOMALIES APPROACHING 200 METERS ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-NOVEMBER) MOVES THROUGH EASTERN CANADA IS IN THE LOW 50S LATITUDE FROM SUNDAY ONWARD...WHICH FAVORS A SLOW-MOVING CLOSED VORTEX TO ITS SOUTH IN THE LOW 30S LATITUDE. THE GUIDANCE INDICATES SUCH A FEATURE NEAR THE CAROLINAS, THOUGH OF THE CURRENT GUIDANCE, ONLY THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z NAM SHOW THE SYSTEM CLOSED AT THE 500 HPA LEVEL, AND ONLY THE 00Z CANADIAN APPEARS CLOSED AT THE 700 HPA LEVEL. A STRONGER/SLOWER SOLUTION IS ADVISABLE HERE PER TELECONNECTIONS WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE AS WELL AS THE 00Z CANADIAN/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. NONE OF THE CURRENT GUIDANCE APPEARS DEEP ENOUGH ALOFT WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN ANY MODEL CHOICE WITH THIS SYSTEM. IF ANY PRIOR MODEL RUN LOOKS REASONABLE, A LAGGED-AVERAGE COMPROMISE OF THE ECMWF RUNS FROM 12/12Z-14/00Z APPEARS BEST. SINCE MOST OF THOSE RUNS ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR OPERATIONAL USE DUE TO THEIR AGE, A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z NAM/00Z ECMWF LOOKS BEST FOR THE TIME BEING...WITH CONFIDENCE ONLY AVERAGE IN THIS CHOICE AS IT APPEARS TOO WEAK. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN SUBMITTED AS A CANDIDATE FOR SHORT-RANGE ATLANTIC/GULF COAST WINTER STORM RECONNAISSANCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 perfect working weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 I have been thinking about an inexpensive weather station for the house. Anybody heard of or have this one? http://www.globalind...CFcXb4Aodc2YAWg Or this one? http://www.amazon.co...pd_sim_sbs_hi_2 The Ambient Weather WS-1090 seems to be pretty reliable and it does a good job with wind speeds. The temperature sensor tends to be flaky sometimes, especially during hot weather and light winds (Most if not all stations under $600 will have this problem). If you mount the sensor in the shade though you should be OK. Like all precipitation sensors under $1000, the rain gauge will not work in sleet, freezing rain or snow. You can run the data from the station to your computer and log and store it and even upload it to weather underground using Cumulus. Overall it's a very good station for the money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 I have been thinking about an inexpensive weather station for the house. Anybody heard of or have this one? http://www.globalind...CFcXb4Aodc2YAWg Or this one? http://www.amazon.com/Ambient-Weather-WS-1090-Wireless-Station/dp/B0044P7CUI/ref=pd_sim_sbs_hi_2 I bought the Ambient Weather one 2 years ago for Christmas. We only had it mounted for 3 months and the anemometer crapped out and broke. Maybe it was just a faulty one. I dunno. I'm going for a Davis Vantage Vue this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 I only want/need outdoor temp and rain gauge. I'm not worried about having to measure snow liquid. I'll just use local coop to fill in my journal when (or should I say IF) it snows. lol I'm having a hard time finding a good temp/gauge combo. I do want it to be wireless though. I'm older and lazy. I don't like seeing the thermo inaccuracy complaints on many models. Not sure how to get around it. I can't tell if the thermo is a separate instrument that can be mounted some distance away or not. If they're all integrated into the rain gauge then there is no way to mount in shade. hmmmm. I thought this would be easier... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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