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November obs and banter


Ian

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This is one of those times that I wish I were blissfully unaware at how close this thing is to being a anomalous early-November snow here.

I don't want to draw any conclusions from this, because our real "snow season" is over a month away. I really don't. But I'm a pessimist and can't help but think about a northern stream-dominated winter with a -AO. Ouch.

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It still amazes me that LWX seems unable to update their forecast to reflect last minute nowcast changes that are apparent to everyone in a timely manner. I totally understood putting 2-4 as a possible range for areas north of Baltimore last night when some data still suggested a decent band may get thrown back this way, and with some elevation...maybe and might as well go with the more liberal total for public safety sake. But current obs combined with the new data makes it clear there will be no organized significant precip making it that far west, and yet they have yet to update and their latest statement still says 2-4. WHen you are in a nowcast situation updates should be liberal and immediate when conditions change or else they are useless. I keep hearing people ask "what time do I have to leave before the heavy snow starts?" People right now are making choices about how to plan their evenings based on totally outdated WRONG information.

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It still amazes me that LWX seems unable to update their forecast to reflect last minute nowcast changes that are apparent to everyone in a timely manner. I totally understood putting 2-4 as a possible range for areas north of Baltimore last night when some data still suggested a decent band may get thrown back this way, and with some elevation...maybe and might as well go with the more liberal total for public safety sake. But current obs combined with the new data makes it clear there will be no organized significant precip making it that far west, and yet they have yet to update and their latest statement still says 2-4. WHen you are in a nowcast situation updates should be liberal and immediate when conditions change or else they are useless. I keep hearing people ask "what time do I have to leave before the heavy snow starts?" People right now are making choices about how to plan their evenings based on totally outdated WRONG information.

I actually have people in the office asking when the snow is going to start...so I told them it's not going to. They were confused, so I told them the storm sucks.

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