MillzPirate Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I guess I'm the only one not having hallucinations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Nam sim radar totally missed the area of precip right around the h5 center. It more potent AND extrapolating the HAT radar looks sweet. 87 redux. Book it. it is a somewhat interesting looking radar right now...i guess i'm going to follow this storm now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Nam sim radar totally missed the area of precip right around the h5 center. It more potent AND extrapolating the HAT radar looks sweet. 87 redux. Book it. Don't do it, Bob. We have a long, miserable winter ahead. You'll need your sanity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Don't do it, Bob. We have a long, miserable winter ahead. You'll need your sanity. Too late. It's coming. You can see it happening on radar already. Euro, NAM, GFS, SREF, GGEM, UKMET, CRAS, and JMA all have it wrong. None of those models extrapolate radar properly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Too late. It's coming. You can see it happening on radar already. Euro, NAM, GFS, SREF, GGEM, UKMET, CRAS, and JMA all have it wrong. None of those models extrapolate radar properly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 bob, you have election day stress? put you over the edge..somebody throw him a life line....PBR bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 bob, you have election day stress? put you over the edge..somebody throw him a life line....PBR bro. Nah, I'm having a good time. If you ever read one of my posts and wonder if I'm serious, I'm definitely jokin around. I already have a solid forecast in mind. I'll most likely seem some flakes and accumulations will range from 0-10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Lol @ people deeply analyzing the NAM. The model is very sensitive to small perturbations and becomes increasingly inaccurate even in the short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 7, 2012 Author Share Posted November 7, 2012 The NAM sucks outside of 6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 The NAM sucks outside of 6 hours Well, This is about the time people should start nowcasting, mabye look at the RUC but the GFS and Euro are probably close enough to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 7, 2012 Author Share Posted November 7, 2012 Well, This is about the time people should start nowcasting, mabye look at the RUC but the GFS and Euro are probably close enough to reality. doubt much will change from the consensus at this pt. some flurries to perhaps a dusting+ around DC.. maybe a few inches NE MD if lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I'm still going with chilly temps and mostly cloudy here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 doubt much will change from the consensus at this pt. some flurries to perhaps a dusting+ around DC.. maybe a few inches NE MD if lucky. I agree, it was hard to get on board for this event when it first appeared on the models. This airmass is barely sufficient to get significant accumulation and you have to be under banding to get anything good. I believe NJ will do well in this event, but that's not saying much; it's a very narrow and sparse area of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I'm surprised (and confused) at how aggressive the LWX discussion and forecast are for even Baltimore city. Point and click says 1 to 2 inches, and the text says 1 to 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Whew! Clicking the refresh button on question 4,5,6,7 results in MD is like is like refresh model pages! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Low of 9.9 degrees this morning! Wow...impressive cold this morning. I think your obs got lost in the banter about the banter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 7, 2012 Author Share Posted November 7, 2012 I'm surprised (and confused) at how aggressive the LWX discussion and forecast are for even Baltimore city. Point and click says 1 to 2 inches, and the text says 1 to 3. LWX has a tendency to go too high then have to lower though I'm not sure I disagree too much at this pt. I think much of the QPF will be snow. The air mass is considerably colder than it once looked, partly because the low is east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I'm going to bed. When I wake up I expect at least 12" and white out conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 First snow of the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Pulled into the parking lot at work in PG and had a few snow pellets hitting that car at 39-40*. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 35 degrees with a DP of 27 on the way into the office near Laytonsville at the moment. Would you say this virga we're getting right now effects us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kjchoya Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Snow pellets at Farragut West in downtown DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 First flakes heading toward Towson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 The stuff associated over our heads with the ULL seems to be waning. Off the coast is taking control now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 The stuff associated over our heads with the ULL seems to be waning. Off the coast is taking control now. Yea the coastal is bombing, should start some west movement soon thanks to the capture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 First flakes heading toward Towson. Um, no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Um, no. Um yes there were isolated flakes heading north on 695, not saying at Towson or now, were some earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I considered making a modest drive to get under some good rates but Elkton is just a bit too far for me. I'm not a hardcore weenie I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Um yes there were isolated flakes heading north on 695, not saying at Towson or now, were some earlier. lol ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I thought I saw a flake or two at McPherson a minute ago, but probably just hallucinations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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