RaleighWx Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 View the slideshows. http://www.examiner.com/article/winter-2012-13-forecast-part-1 http://www.examiner.com/article/winter-2012-13-forecast-part-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Looks like a really reasonable forecast. Well done. This is a tricky year for sure with no one dominant signal showing itself yet. It could end up far in either direction. I've been following enso and 2006-07 analog for months but 76-77 has started popping up. GaWx has some interesting predictions and analysis irt the PDO and enso. The one thing about 76-77 that seems to have really helped was the pdo flipping from negative to positive. 76 was on an island irt the pdo. It was clearly in the middle of a long term -pdo cycle that dominated pretty much the entire decade. Not implying record cold in any way shape or form. Just that the potential exists for solid cold winter across much of the country with a focus from the northern plains to the east coast. Could go either way though. I like what I see starting to develop so far this fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 View the slideshows. http://www.examiner....forecast-part-1 http://www.examiner....forecast-part-2 Allan, nice stats about the October and November AO. That and the snow cover make me lean towards a negative AO though I haven't proven that my guesses about the Ao are any good beyond a 2 or 3 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Great read Allan...I've been following the AO and came up with these top ten lowest October AO analogs...-1.000 or lower...2012 could end up the lowest on record...I don't have the monthly value yet... Strongest -AO Octobers... 2009...cold winter...stronger -AO in January... 2002...cold winter...weaker -AO in January... 1979...mild winter...stronger -AO in January... 1960...cold winter...stronger -AO in January... 1981...cold winter...weaker -AO in January... 1966...mild winter...weaker -AO in January... 2006...mild winter...positive AO in January... 1974...mild winter...positive AO in January... 1968...cold winter...stronger -AO in January... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted November 2, 2012 Author Share Posted November 2, 2012 Allan, nice stats about the October and November AO. That and the snow cover make me lean towards a negative AO though I haven't proven that my guesses about the Ao are any good beyond a 2 or 3 weeks. Thanks everyone. Wes long time no talk, I hope you are well and enjoying retirement. I think the reality is that predicting the AO/NAO is part statistical, part possible physical correlation, and a little art lol. I am sure there is a correlation with SSTA placement and intensity but I am not sure if it is a driver or just a feedback mechanism. I think the stratospheric/ozone/qbo research linking these with the AO is pretty encouraging and has merit, but I am not sure how useful a predictor tool it is and at what time range it can be used effectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 You must hate Utah. You did a good job but obviously I hope you are wrong. Last winter was the least snowy on record here, I don't want to go through another ugly one so soon. Thanks for making this though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Great forecast Alan. Hvy hvy snow and cold this winter. Hopefully we get a kick start next week with the noreaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Thanks, Alan. Good concepts and no apparent wishcasting. Sandy may have been a longwave pattern changer. We seem off to a good start with a persistent mean trough in the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Great forecast! Thanks for sharing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Nice read. I hope you verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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