buckeye Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 0z NAM is stronger/slower at 0z 72 compared to 18z 78. yup...and you would think there would be more ridging out ahead but it looks like there's less (compared to 18z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 NAM has a nice hit through MN, WI. Weaker as it moved east a bit though, but still a nice hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 NAM hr 78...mpx gets nailed Not surprised. I would imagine once the clippers become less frequent, and its gets a bit warmer, there will be bigger storms that will probably more often that not track further SE. Either way if 306 falls this storm, some places would be near 50 inches for the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 NAM hr 78...mpx gets nailed sweet spot just south of the metro. that'd be nice warning-criteria snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 looks like the nam splits the low at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 the NAM is saying OK metrodome roof lets ALL fall down now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 We could use some more..My snow pack is only at 27 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 We could use some more..My snow pack is only at 27 inches. WOW! my snow pack is about 3". Lake Superior highlands are 16" in spots. I hope the models trend even further north but I don't know about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 A White Christmas looks like a lock this year for a lot of people. Now if only we can have falling flakes on Christmas day... thats all i want for christmas....a white one...not gonna happen if i get paid enough on payday, ill have to make a trip to MN and get some pics/videos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 <br />looks like the nam splits the low at 84<br /><br /><br /><br />Still looking like it'll be a nice hit. 12z should be able to see everything as it passes through Oh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 If I was placing bets on qpf maxima I would pick msp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 FWIW...72hr 0Z JMA and UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 0z GFS is nearly identical to QPF placement, but is drier than the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Identical east but not west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 A bit OT, but if you guys want snow, head to the Sierra Nevada range. Coolest NWS point click forecast I have ever seen. http://forecast.weat...n&FcstType=text After reading that you can understand why the infamous Donner party had so much trouble getting through there lol. We could use some more..My snow pack is only at 27 inches. That's a lock for a white christmas if I ever saw one LMAO!! The GFS is definitely north of the 12z GFS. The NAM is way north in comparison. For obvious reasons I'm rooting for more of a GFS type solution, but the NAM whooped the GFS pretty good with that last system. At least for this immediate area anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 A White Christmas looks like a lock this year for a lot of people. Now if only we can have falling flakes on Christmas day... Climatologically Detroit has a 50/50 shot of a white Christmas, which is 1"+ snow on the ground at obs time. This year it is a 100% lock. Of course snow falling on Christmas is perfect. There are ways to get "cheated" on this meteorological White Christmas of course. Say theres no snow on the ground at 7 am. Snow starts to fall at 9am and falls heavily all day dropping 10 inches. To almost everyone this is the perfect Christmas weather. But "officially" its not a white Christmas, because the ground was bare. On the flip side, say there is a 3" snowcover, old and dirty, present at 7am but it is 40F and pouring rain with standing water everywhere. As UGLY as can be, but it is "officially" a white Christmas. Lol. My mom said today "its so nice having all this snow for Christmas week, if we can get a coating to freshen it up for Christmas that would be PERFECT". I agreed with her, but didnt even MENTION this possibility of Tuesday snowstorm because of how awful the models are, dont want to get any hopes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 canadian is very weak...shears out clipper and moisture before it even gets to ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 canadian is very weak...shears out clipper and moisture before it even gets to ohio Be interesting to see the Euro that is for sure. I am assuming this is from last night? 0z isnt even out yet for the paid subscriptions. "0Z ECMWF says no/GFS ensembles everywhere" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 What's interesting is the GEM is usually the most robust with systems in this time range. It's clearly handling the overall setup differently than the GFS/NAM. At least the previous Euro guidance supports the wetter/more dynamic American models. Hope the new Euro continues that way of thinking in an hour or so when it comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 Be interesting to see the Euro that is for sure. I am assuming this is from last night? 0z isnt even out yet for the paid subscriptions. "0Z ECMWF says no/GFS ensembles everywhere" That is from when I started the thread a couple days ago. I should change it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 That is from when I started the thread a couple days ago. I should change it now. Okay, I never noticed it before now. lol. I was sitting here thinking, "Well he is a met maybe he gets the model way early or something" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 Okay, I never noticed it before now. lol. I was sitting here thinking, "Well he is a met maybe he gets the model way early or something" lol Changed. I like this one much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Changed. I like this one much better. haha, works for me. One thing looking good for down my way, is mixing doesnt appear to be much of an issue, with the exception of possibly Southern Ohio mixing for a period. Don't look as though p-type issues will make it to I-70. Now lets hope the ECMWF shows this sucker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 0z ECMWF is much farther north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 0z ECMWF is much farther north... Location strength? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 0z ECMWF is much farther north... Not on the computer at the moment. What does it look like for OH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Not on the computer at the moment. What does it look like for OH 976 MSP rain for everyone east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 i'm jj btw my default for any advanced ecmwf questions is always 976 msp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 976 MSP rain for everyone east not funny mike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 976 MSP rain for everyone east Well if that doesn't throw a wrench for us Ohio guys. First time every model agrees and then the Euro has to screw it all up lol. Oh jeeze, what an a*shole lol. Jp. You had me worried Ill give you that cause I am on my cell so I can't check the models right now and furthermore it isn't out for me yet lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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