A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 .5+ area growing on the ensemble mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 LOL, bit of an "oops" in the MPX AFD... THERE IS AN INITIAL WEAKER...FAST MOVING AREA OF LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS IS MAINLY SOUTH OF US. HAVE RAISE POOPS A BIT WITH A FEW SREF MEMBERS INDICATING SOME QPF IN THE FAR SOUTH. Nice. MPX FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 This is actually getting to the point for southern MN that next spring could be a disaster. Rivers are ridiculously above normal flow, if this keeps up... well, it won't be pretty. I digress. Back to snow discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 .5+ area growing on the ensemble mean Speaking of ensembles. Not sure whether it was posted or not but the euro ensembles are a bit further north/ene of the OP run as well. Here is a freebie for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Speaking of ensembles. Not sure whether it was posted or not but the euro ensembles are a bit further north/ene of the OP run as well. Here is a freebie for all. nice, thanks Harry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 nice, thanks Harry NP.. Don't mind tossing them out here and there *after* the clients have had a good look first. You all are certainly headed for the record books if this all pans out. sheesh.. However i fear the flood threat next spring up that way.ouch.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 After getting pumped for another decent snow I'm becoming increasingly worried much of Iowa will whiff on this one. NAM is way north, 18z GFS went a little north, ensembles even farther north than the ops, not looking good. At the current rate some spots in southern MN will have 50 inches before we have 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 After getting pumped for another decent snow I'm becoming increasingly worried much of Iowa will whiff on this one. NAM is way north, 18z GFS went a little north, ensembles even farther north than the ops, not looking good. At the current rate some spots in southern MN will have 50 inches before we have 10. Too soon to give up on this one. BTW i think our season totals are pretty similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I wont be greedy. If we can get a 3-6" snow out of this, Christmas would be PERFECT. The current snow depth is ~5", its a frozen snowpack, which has barely settled an inch in the 5 days since the snowstorm. Of course add in the nice snowbanks everywhere. Now, if we can double all of this 3 days before Christmas...can you say Courier & Ives? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I wont be greedy. If we can get a 3-6" snow out of this, Christmas would be PERFECT. The current snow depth is ~5", its a frozen snowpack, which has barely settled an inch in the 5 days since the snowstorm. Of course add in the nice snowbanks everywhere. Now, if we can double all of this 3 days before Christmas...can you say Courier & Ives? I've got 1/2 inch so I'm really rooting for it. All I want for Christmas is a big snow storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 The 15z SREF supports the more northerly track... Looks like it could be another MSP/LSE special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I wont be greedy. If we can get a 3-6" snow out of this, Christmas would be PERFECT. The current snow depth is ~5", its a frozen snowpack, which has barely settled an inch in the 5 days since the snowstorm. Of course add in the nice snowbanks everywhere. Now, if we can double all of this 3 days before Christmas...can you say Courier & Ives? A White Christmas looks like a lock this year for a lot of people. Now if only we can have falling flakes on Christmas day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 The 15z SREF supports the more northerly track... Looks like it could be another MSP/LSE special. 18z gfs gave me 17" total through the 2 storms I'll take it lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 As if we need more weenie fodder, I just noticed that Earl Barker has GGEM snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 As if we need more weenie fodder, I just noticed that Earl Barker has GGEM snow maps. and 6 and 18z GFS and NAM snowfall maps zoomed into the local radars for even MORE fodder! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 21Z sref mean about the same as the 15Z as far as track but more qpf on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 21Z sref mean about the same as the 15Z as far as track but more qpf on this run The increase in QPF is likely due to convergence on a solution and not necessarily because they show a stronger storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 The increase in QPF is likely due to convergence on a solution and not necessarily because they show a stronger storm. Probably but still a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Just curious on what snow ratios are looking like from IL through OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 Probably but still a good thing. Yeah true, I should have mentioned that is a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 this 0z NAM run should be pretty interesting to see, wondering if it keeps what the 18z showed, Remember the nam DID in fact do very good on this ice event, even at 84 hours out, so it should be followed very closely IMO. The simulated radar at 84 looked pretty good on the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 21sref still looks on track... it's almost disturbing when all the models seem to agree on axis of snow this far out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 21sref still looks on track... it's almost disturbing when all the models seem to agree on axis of snow this far out.... Yeah, especially when that area is our area. What's going to go wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 i bet the nam comes in a bit south of previous....the ridge over the rockies looks a little flatter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 A bit OT, but if you guys want snow, head to the Sierra Nevada range. Coolest NWS point click forecast I have ever seen. http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=38.10430528370985&lon=-119.57794189453125&site=hnx&smap=1&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 A bit OT, but if you guys want snow, head to the Sierra Nevada range. Coolest NWS point click forecast I have ever seen. http://forecast.weat...n&FcstType=text O_o thats like 10ft or more! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Rofl, should be Heavy snow in most of those graphics.... I like how it JUST has heavy snow for Saturday, ROFL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Weird that the Sierra is getting an assload of snow, This Pineapple express must be MJO related and not ENSO pushed, as there is no El Nino currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 0z NAM is stronger/slower at 0z 72 compared to 18z 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 NAM hr 78...mpx gets nailed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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