baroclinic_instability Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 lol, 18z NAM really dumps on MSP during the Bears/Viking game. I now have an official wish-cast (and I don't wishcast), that the 18Z NAM pans out. I want that football game to be a snowy mess. Would make for some great entertainment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 LOL, if that solution panned that football game would be a total mess. Looks like 10" or so and still snowing by the end of the run. I now have an official wish-cast (and I don't wishcast), that the 18Z NAM pans out. I want that football game to be a snowy mess. Would make for some great entertainment. how could any weenie plus football fan not like that run. Pretty much moderate to heavy snow for the entire game. Not bad for us downstream either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I now have an official wish-cast (and I don't wishcast), that the 18Z NAM pans out. I want that football game to be a snowy mess. Would make for some great entertainment. x2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Pretty large shield of snow on this run, maybe a spread the wealth kind of storm is still in play? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 This is shaping up to be a valid snowstorm. 3 models and counting so far are onto the same track....amazing!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 This is shaping up to be a valid snowstorm. 3 models and counting so far are onto the same track....amazing!!! Not really the same track, the NAM, GFS and Euro are all good hits for us, but get there is different ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Is it just me or is the NAM showing more phasing with the energy over the southern Canadian Prairies in comparison to the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 This is shaping up to be a valid snowstorm. 3 models and counting so far are onto the same track....amazing!!! NAM is way north of the GFS in this area. Frankly, I'd feel disgusted if southern MN got another 6-12 inch snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Looking at the GFS it looks like a good hit for most north of I-70, and not too bad of one even down here. I would be careful with the GFS though. Look at the last storm, it didn't trend north until the last minute. The NAM has the QPF max about 200 miles north, but it was too far north with the last system. It will be interesting to see how the models adjust once the "brunt" of the energy comes ashore during the 00z launch tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 Pretty large shield of snow on this run, maybe a spread the wealth kind of storm is still in play? The general NAM depiction is one supported by the ECM and one I had not considered much initially and that is a long, drawn out storm where there is no distinct intense baroclinic wave but a number of non-distinct very low amplitude mid/upper tropospheric wave disturbances embedded within the flow. The moistness of this storm also provides some potential for some interesting frontal banding and low level latent heat release/convective snows supported by an active upper level jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 looks like the precip takes a nice dive southeastward at northern IL and looks like we would see a good amount of SN out of this run of the NAM. 0z run shall be interesting for sure. pretty descent agreement on QPF between 18z NAM, 12z GFS, and 12z euro. guessing the NAM would come in wetter looking at the qpf 6 hour map at 84 hours. dont forget the possible xmas eve storm gosh I love this pattern, one storm exits and here comes the next one to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 18z NAM precip out to 84hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 I would be careful with the GFS though. Look at the last storm, it didn't trend north until the last minute. The NAM has the QPF max about 200 miles north, but it was too far north with the last system. It will be interesting to see how the models adjust once the "brunt" of the energy comes ashore during the 00z launch tomorrow. Partially agree. With this system sampling of the strength of the ejecting S/W passing through the intermountain W as the cyclone breaks down will be key...and that is where a ton of variability exists with this storm. With the last system, it was not inefficient sampling of the cyclone (models had more than 2 days to ingest that data) but the extreme dry air/large arctic high and retrograding east coast low that killed qpf farther N. GEM was an example of where it failed well after the pacific cyclone was well within the raob network and it still didn't have a clue. You can see from the last 5 day loop the cyclone was within the roab network from Tue12Z to Thu12Z and had ample time to ingest data. GEM/GFS and other models simply were unable to adjust to the strength of the blocking east coast low and the dry air. http://www.meteo.psu...NL/rucloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 St. Louis continues to get screwed in all these model runs for next week. I really want to see Minneapolis and Chicago get more snow. Not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 looks like the precip takes a nice dive southeastward at northern IL and looks like we would see a good amount of SN out of this run of the NAM. 0z run shall be interesting for sure. pretty descent agreement on QPF between 18z NAM, 12z GFS, and 12z euro. guessing the NAM would come in wetter looking at the qpf 6 hour map at 84 hours. dont forget the possible xmas eve storm gosh I love this pattern, one storm exits and here comes the next one to watch. It's been fun to track but i hope we can get one to bring good snows to us further east. 18z NAM was a nice run for us, really nice shield over head at hr84 with plenty more to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Looks like 10" or so and still snowing by the end of the run. how could any weenie plus football fan not like that run. Pretty much moderate to heavy snow for the entire game. Not bad for us downstream either. I can't say whether or not I like this run. It's more north than the gfs for sure, I'd have to see how that pans out for us Ohio folks before I'd say I liked it. Football fan or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 St. Louis continues to get screwed in all these model runs for next week. I really want to see Minneapolis and Chicago get more snow. Not. I'll share some of the 1.5" i have on the ground with you if you'd like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 It's been fun to track but i hope we can get one to bring good snows to us further east. 18z NAM was a nice run for us, really nice shield over head at hr84 with plenty more to go. I actually really like our chances with this one. knock on wood.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 St. Louis continues to get screwed in all these model runs for next week. I really want to see Minneapolis and Chicago get more snow. Not. Hey, this pattern's is like a colonoscopy for me as well, but it's best not to hate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Partially agree. With this system sampling of the strength of the ejecting S/W passing through the intermountain W as the cyclone breaks down will be key...and that is where a ton of variability exists with this storm. With the last system, it was not inefficient sampling of the cyclone (models had more than 2 days to ingest that data) but the extreme dry air/large arctic high and retrograding east coast low that killed qpf farther N. GEM was an example of where it failed well after the pacific cyclone was well within the raob network and it still didn't have a clue. You can see from the last 5 day loop the cyclone was within the roab network from Tue12Z to Thu12Z and had ample time to ingest data. GEM/GFS and other models simply were unable to adjust to the strength of the blocking east coast low and the dry air. http://www.meteo.psu...NL/rucloop.html To me what is one of the biggest players is how the mid level vort retrograding west through central Canada behaves. if it wobbles slightly more north of west that would obviously in turn allow the short wave ridging to be slightly north. Sure this system will have less sampling resinous time. Looking at the 12z run they have mostly continued the trend north, possibly to better initializations of the downstream features which would affect the incoming system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I actually really like our chances with this one. knock on wood.. Im on board anytime the euro, gfs and nam all show a good hit inside 100hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 FWIW...18Z DGEX at 84 is almost a carbon copy of the 18Z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 To me what is one of the biggest players is how the mid level vort retrograding west through central Canada behaves. if it wobbles slightly more north of west that would obviously in turn allow the short wave ridging to be slightly north. Sure this system will have less sampling resinous time. Looking at the 12z run they have mostly continued the trend north, possibly to better initializations of the downstream features which would affect the incoming system. Chicago seems to agree with my thinking. CLASSIC "one-liner" in the AFD. TO BEGIN....I AM NOT READY DRINK ANY OF THE MODEL KOOLAID AND FULLY BUY OFF ON ANY ONE SOLUTION. THE PARENT SYSTEM THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SPAWNING THE THE WAVES ACROSS THE CONUS AND EVENTUALLY THE CWA IS STILL SLOWLY WOBBLING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A 150+ KT JET WILL EVENTUALLY COLLIDE WITH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY INTO THE WEEKEND THAT WILL EJECT THESE PULSES. THE MAJORITY OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL SPANNING A DATA VOID REGION AND WONT CROSS LAND UNTIL TOMORROW. WHAT CAN BE SAID IS THAT THE MODELS DO MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF BRINGING IN SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY THE POSSIBILITY OF A HIGHER ACCUMULATING STORM MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK WAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN...NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM. FOCUS IS THEN PLACED ON A LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THE LAST FOUR RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE SLOWLY MOVED THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO INDIANA...TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. EVEN THE GENERALLY STABLE ECMWF HAS CHANGED THE LOCATION OF THE LOW BY 200+ MILES OVER THE LAST RUN AT THE F96 HOUR. UNTIL THERE IS BETTER CONSENSUS ON HOW THINGS WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE...WILL KEEP MENTION TO ONLY A CHANCE...AS WE WILL BETTER BE ABLE TO FOCUS IN ON THE DETAILS OVER THE NEXT RUNS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I'll share some of the 1.5" i have on the ground with you if you'd like. Deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 LOL, bit of an "oops" in the MPX AFD... THERE IS AN INITIAL WEAKER...FAST MOVING AREA OF LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS IS MAINLY SOUTH OF US. HAVE RAISE POOPS A BIT WITH A FEW SREF MEMBERS INDICATING SOME QPF IN THE FAR SOUTH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 LOL, bit of an "oops" in the MPX AFD... THERE IS AN INITIAL WEAKER...FAST MOVING AREA OF LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS IS MAINLY SOUTH OF US. HAVE RAISE POOPS A BIT WITH A FEW SREF MEMBERS INDICATING SOME QPF IN THE FAR SOUTH. Lmao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Energy looks healthy on gfs by hr+66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Looks like it could be a snowy week coming up. the initial impressions from the model are favorable for some decent snow, here's hoping that we get some... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Deal. take what you want. Anyways the GFS has been pretty consistent since 6z at bringing .5+ to the area with decent ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Lookin good for Ohio! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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