hawkeye_wx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 NAM looks aimed pretty far north, more at MN and WI than IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 curious as to what way direction that tracks after 84hrs. I think the bears are playing in MN on monday night..lol Looking at the 850 low position and the cranking south winds by 84 hrs, I doubt it moves very far south. That map screams will be over 0 at 850 in 6 hrs. EDIT: i have to say if things unfold as slow as the 12z NAM and with the EC storm looking unlikely to sit on the coast, this could very well be a rain maker for many who saw rain in the big MSP snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Pretty large timing discrepancies between the 12z NAM and GFS. My guts says the GFS trends slower and as a result north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Any midwest mets interested in Radio analysis if this threat for the midwest is legit? I'd be up for a midwest centric show this weekend sometime. Just PM me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Pretty large timing discrepancies between the 12z NAM and GFS. My guts says the GFS trends slower and as a result north. Keep it slow but steady trending and all should be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 All guidance better than the 0Z GFS last night. I think the NAM is ejecting the baroclinic wave awfully far N right now. Perfect solution would be slower and more of an intact wave in the plains. SOme guidance still suggests a possibility. The met in me still says there is a ton of potential with this. I wouldn't like to see all that potential energy go to waste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 12Z GFS 108hr. Looks like a nice swat of Heavy Snows for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 WSW criteria snowfall for many of us on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Keep it slow but steady trending and all should be good. a push north will send a lot of warm air with it. The surge of warm air will be in a nw to se trajectory because of the ne vortex which means the rain/snow line could potentially line up something like chicago to cincy vs. a west to east line with snow north and rain south. As i said, this looks like our last storm displaced further northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 Looking at the 850 low position and the cranking south winds by 84 hrs, I doubt it moves very far south. That map screams will be over 0 at 850 in 6 hrs. EDIT: i have to say if things unfold as slow as the 12z NAM and with the EC storm looking unlikely to sit on the coast, this could very well be a rain maker for many who saw rain in the big MSP snowstorm. I am not worried about rain. Even the strongest solutions depict an intense clipper solution which would mainly remain progressive with frontogenesis dominating and an intense low level cyclone at best, but compact in nature. IN other words, advectiion will not play a prominent role and the system won't stall and deepen through the troposphere. Looks like precip should mostly remain in the cold side along the upper level front like super clipper. The track is way up in the air though, so if you glance at the means it looks like a rain threat, but if you look at all the individual members it would be snow, the tracks are just so up in the air it throws the mean thicknesses/temps off. Rain maybe on the very south end of the band ahead of the surface low but prolly wouldn't last long...not like last storm. This gives you an idea of variability of track, intensity, orientation. http://www.meteo.psu...z/srefloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I'm officially on board to waste a good chunk of my weekend tracking this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I am not worried about rain. If I lived in Minnesota i wouldn't be either. Thanks for your thoughts though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 If I lived in Minnesota i wouldn't be either. Thanks for your thoughts though. this /\ lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 a push north will send a lot of warm air with it. The surge of warm air will be in a nw to se trajectory because of the ne vortex which means the rain/snow line could potentially line up something like chicago to cincy vs. a west to east line with snow north and rain south. As i said, this looks like our last storm displaced further northeast Does look a lot warmer potentially for your Ohio and southern IND guys and south. Will have to wait and see on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 a push north will send a lot of warm air with it. The surge of warm air will be in a nw to se trajectory because of the ne vortex which means the rain/snow line could potentially line up something like chicago to cincy vs. a west to east line with snow north and rain south. As i said, this looks like our last storm displaced further northeast Meh.. See Baros post. Really should not be that much of a issue with WAA. Plus there is decent snow cover as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Potential Christmas storm as well beyond that. Looks kinda December 2004 to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 I think one thing for sure though...the best case potential I mentioned yesterday is prolly out the window as the latest trends show a more supressed upper level height field with the interaction between the retrograding low and the east coast trough combined with first initial leading wave ahead of the second wave expected to develop this next storm. Still has a lot of potential, but not as much as before. No major spread the wealth type storm now, but it can still be a good hit for someone, just not a huge region wide storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Potential Christmas storm as well beyond that. Looks kinda December 2004 to me. For here that looks better then 2004. Could be a game changer for me with what to do for Christmas and thus staying here or going to Ohio ( Near Mansfield ) to visit some relatives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 OT, but I feel bad for the east coasters. A week of flip flopping, some runs showing nothing, looked like 3 days ago the threat was gone, then all guidance came on baord two days ago showing a monster, then this. Some events are just ridiculously sensitive to tiny initial condition changes, especially this event. "Thread-the-needle" storm was right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Clipper 1 is a done deal to stay south of me. That Atlantic vortex is just too close. The Christmas clipper/redeveloper is more of a wild card. GFS initially progs the Atl. vortex to be further east, east of Labrador at 144, but then retrogrades it (or a piece of it) to suppress the second storm. It think that retrogression is more of a low confidence occurrence, and if it doesn't happen, could allow for a further north track for clipper #2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 OT, but I feel bad for the east coasters. A week of flip flopping, some runs showing nothing, looked like 3 days ago the threat was gone, then all guidance came on baord two days ago showing a monster, then this. Some events are just ridiculously sensitive to tiny initial condition changes, especially this event. "Thread-the-needle" storm was right. After last winter, i guess that makes one of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 The CMC was suggesting this dual wave solution a couple days ago. Looks like, in some manner, that will verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 ahhh if I could get the clipper 150 miles south please and just my luck, it warms up just in time for Christmas eve with rain to melt the snow away.. Come on GFS be in a holiday spirit won't ya.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 the more i look at this potential storm, the more it reminds me of what we just had come thru here the last couple days.....the difference being that it manages to push a little more northeast than the last one. If this models stronger in upcoming runs, warm air could be an issue for many of us in IL, IN, and OH. Yeah, some of these runs are not far away from bringing mixing concerns in here. I'm gonna stay optimistic since systems like this have not really shown a clear tendency for a huge north trend but it's definitely something I've been thinking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 After last winter, i guess that makes one of us. Haha yeah, they definitely did get crushed last year. Still though, I couldn't imagine getting so amped just to be letdown after a week of speculation. Isn't like 95% of storms here where someone gets in on the action. When it comes to nor'easters it is either bust or boom, really no in between. Some SNE posters are going to eat crow as they bit on the global consensus solution a couple days ago when all global guidance had a significant hit with some posters calling others out claiming they were right, that their model of choice was right, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The GEM is on the Far side of the models right now compared to the GFS and NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Meh.. See Baros post. Really should not be that much of a issue with WAA. Plus there is decent snow cover as well. Man, look at I-95 north of DC... Snow everywhere around them. Funny to see snow in northern Alabama, but not in Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Haha yeah, they definitely did get crushed last year. Still though, I couldn't imagine getting so amped just to be letdown after a week of speculation. Isn't like 95% of storms here where someone gets in on the action. When it comes to nor'easters it is either bust or boom, really no in between. Some SNE posters are going to eat crow as they bit on the global consensus solution a couple days ago when all global guidance had a significant hit with some posters calling others out claiming they were right, that their model of choice was right, etc. Actually I think only the MA had a really good winter last year. North of that I'm not sure they made average. I'll have to check. Nevermind. They had a slow start, but a good February just like we did out here. Way above normal snowfall for NYC. Boston, however, was way below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I just hope the 1st wave can get far enough south to give me 1-2 inches, not likely but not impossible and the 2nd wave is far enough south to not melt that and the 2 inches left over now, without that no chance for a white Christmas here I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Man, look at I-95 north of DC... Snow everywhere around them. Funny to see snow in northern Alabama, but not in Boston. That map needs some work. There is definitely no snow in parts of west Michigan. That map makes the entire state look white, but on my drive to work I go 10 miles and see only grass except where there are leftover drifts. I know it extend east of where I live another 10 - 20 miles at least also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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